GBPUSD has been struggling to claim the 1.3400 level and the familiar upper ascending line over the past week, which once again managed to resist bullish forces.
Encouragingly, the red Tenkan-sen line and the 78.6% Fibonacci of the short 1.3481 – 1.2674 downleg came immediately to the rescue around 1.3315, providing another opportunity to the bulls. The recent rebound in the RSI and the soft bounce in the MACD, which is currently pushing efforts to return above its red signal line, keep the short-term bias on the positive side.
Should the resistance line give way, the rally may stretch towards the 1.3480 – 1.3515 key region formed by the September peak and the 2019 top. Breaching that border, the door would open for the 1.3600 number – a tough barrier to upside movements during the 2017-2018 period – while higher the next obstacle could commence around the 1.3755 hurdle.
In the case the price retreats below 1.3315, the 61.8% Fibonacci of 1.3177 may add some footing ahead of the 50% Fibonacci of 1.3080. Then, if sellers persist below the latter, all attention will turn to the 1.2980 mark, where the supportive upward-sloping trendline, a long-term descending trendline from 2015, and the 38.2% Fibonacci all intersect.
Meanwhile in the medium-term picture, the pair is set to switch its neutral profile to a positive one above 1.3400.
In brief, GBPUSD seems to have some extra bullish power in store, though only a decisive close above the ascending line could release it.
