AUDUSD has been trending upwards over the past month after it managed to get strong support at the September low of 0.7169. However, the short-term picture has started to deteriorate as the pair’s rally halted at the 3-month high of 0.7554. Since then, the price has been dipping down, crossing below both its 50- and 200-period simple moving averages (SMAs).
The negative short-term trend is likely to strengthen, as the momentum indicators suggest an imminent bearish bias. Specifically, the stochastic oscillator is pointing down in the oversold area, while the MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram crossing below the red signal line.
Should the selling pressure intensify, the 0.7325 level might act as immediate support. A drop below this level would open the way towards the 0.7300 key psychological region, which has provided both support and resistance several times in the past. If sellers overcome this obstacle, 0.7230 could prove a strong support barrier for the price before the bears target the September low of 0.7169.
Alternatively, if buyers manage to retake control and the price ascents, the first resistance point might be found at the recent high of 0.7430. Overcoming this level, the next hurdle for the pair might be met at 0.7470 or even higher at the 0.7535 region. Clearing these barricades would signify the resumption of the medium-term uptrend, setting the stage for the 3-month high of 0.7554.
Overall, AUDUSD seems to have lost steam in the last few sessions. A break above the 50-SMA would help erase the negative bias, while surpassing the 0.7535 mark would restore the medium-term positive outlook.
