Spot silver entered new month firmly in red and hit new lowest in over two-years on Thursday, in extension of August’s 11.4% fall (the biggest monthly loss since September 2020).
The metal is under pressure by rising dollar on expectations of further aggressive rate hike and also by slower recovery in certain sectors where silver is used (industrial and jewellery).
Bearish studies add to negative outlook, along with negative signals on weekly bull-trap above 200WMA; completion of weekly failure swing pattern and converged 20/200WMA’s, about to form bear-cross.
Additional negative signal was generated by Aug close below pivotal Fibo support at $18.44 (61.8% of $11.23/$30.10 rally).
Bears eye June 2020 low ($16.94), violation of which would risk test of Fibo 76.4% support at $15.68.
Oversold conditions warn of some adjustment in coming sessions, with upticks to be ideally capped by falling daily Tenkan-sen (18.53) to keep bears intact.
Only bounce through $19.25/28 (daily Kijun-sen / daily cloud base) would put larger bears on hold.
Res: 18.00; 18.53; 18.74; 19.25.
Sup: 17.64; 16.94; 16.45; 15.68.