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AUDUSD Vulnerable Near 30-month Lows

AUDUSD could not successfully exit the consolidation area of 0.6200-0.6300 despite starting the week on a positive note, with the price remaining exposed to its 30-month low of 0.6169.

The RSI is lacking direction below its 50 neutral mark, while the MACD is attached to its red signal line within the bearish area, both endorsing the short-term neutral trajectory in the price.

A close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7136-0.6169 downleg at 0.6400 could produce a quick upside move to 0.6538. The 38.2% Fibonacci and a former support line drawn from August 2021 are also in this neighborhood. Therefore, a violation at this point could add more fuel to the rally, likely bringing the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6652 and the 50-day MA next into view.

Should selling pressures drive the price below 0.6200, support could initially commence somewhere between 0.6070 and 0.6000. Falling lower, the pair may attempt to set a foothold around 0.5860 like it did at the start of 2003.

In short, AUDUSD is in a wait-and-see mode at the bottom of a downtrend. A sustainable move above the 20-day SMA or below the 0.6200 base could direct the market accordingly.

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