BTCUSD has been generating a structure of lower highs and lower lows after peaking at the 10-month high of 31,064 in mid-April. Even though the digital coin found its feet at the May bottom of 25,785 and attempted a rebound, it has been repeatedly held down by its 50-period simple moving average (SMA).
The momentum indicators currently suggest that near-term risks are tilted to the downside. Specifically, the RSI has flatlined beneath its 50-neutral mark, while the stochastic oscillator is descending sharply near the 20-oversold zone.
Should the 50-period SMA continue to cap the price’s upside, Bitcoin could decline towards 26,661, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 19,540-31,064 upleg. A break below that wall may set the stage for the May bottom of 25,785. Failing to halt there, the price might then challenge the 50.0% Fibo of 25,302.
Alternatively, bullish actions could propel the price towards the recent rejection region of 27,675. If that barricade fails, the spotlight may turn to the 23.6% Fibo of 28,344 before buyers attack the 30,000 psychological mark. Even higher, the 10-month peak of 31,064 could curb any upside moves.
Overall, BTCUSD has been stuck in a bearish pattern since mid-April, while its latest efforts for a recovery have been repelled multiple times by the 50-period SMA. Thus, a clear break above the 50-period SMA is needed to revive bulls’ hopes for a trend reversal.
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