As the AUD/USD chart shows, the Australian dollar is holding above the psychological 0.700 level today after a bullish impulse triggered by the market’s reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to raise the Cash Rate from 3.60% to 3.85%.
According to RBA Governor Michele Bullock, inflation (3.8%) remains too high, and the Bank “cannot allow it to get out of control again”. At the same time, the possibility of another rate hike in May has been left open.
The prospect of a tighter monetary policy stance should support the Australian dollar. However, the key question is whether AUD/USD can extend its advance and break above the important A peak from 29 January — the pair’s highest level since February 2023.
Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart
Volatile price action in January has formed a broad ascending channel originating in November 2025. Within this structure:
- → bullish momentum accelerated on 19 January following a break above local resistance (shown in red);
- → the A peak confirmed the upper boundary of the channel as resistance;
- → the median (shown in blue) continues to act as support for the rising market.
It is worth noting that the ATR indicator is at its highest level in around nine months. This may point to increased activity by “smart money”, while the aggressive bearish rejection from the upper boundary could hint at their intentions.
As a result, the current rise in AUD/USD appears to be an initial emotional response to the news. There is a risk that the momentum may fade as the price approaches the highs near the A peak, where “smart money” could resume selling.
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