This is a follow up to our AUD/JPY short trade, entered at 80.25, stop at break even 80.25. Last updated in our weekly report.
AUD/JPY rebound strongly today on news that the US is trying to restart trade talk with China. And Trump intends to postpone the announcement of 25% tariffs on USD 200B in Chinese goods after that. Public hearing on the tariffs ended last week.
While the rebound is strong, our strategy is… don’t panic. Firstly, at the time of writing, both he Treasury Department and Commerce Department declined to comment. So, it could be another piece of “fake news”. Secondly, at the time of writing too, there is no follow through buying above 4 hour 55 EMA yet.
Technically, 4 hour technical doesn’t look very promising, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. But there is no confirmed reversal yet. Hence, we’d hold on to the short position, with stop unchanged at 80.25 (break even). But the chance for us to exit slightly above 61.8% projection of 90.29 to 80.48 from 83.92 at 77.85 has increased. We’ll still not rigid exit there yet, as we’d like to give the cross a little breathing room on the news (real or fake).
And, after all, it’s trading. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Even if we’re stopped out, it’s not a loss!
