Australia NAB Business Confidence rose to -46 in April, up from -65. But that remain well below the trough of 1990s recession. Business Conditions, however, dropped to -34, down from -22, below the level seen in the 08/09 financial crisis. Looking at some details, trading conditions dropped form -19 to -33. Profitability conditions dropped from -28 to -35. Employment conditions also dropped from -20 to -35. Forward orders dropped from -28 to -36, suggesting activity is likely to weaken further in the near term.
Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist “confidence saw a rebound in the month after the sharp fall last month, but this provides little comfort given it remains around twice as weak as the 1990s recession. Business conditions declined further in the month, with a broad-based deterioration across industries”.
“We see a recovery in growth late this year, but even though it could be a solid bounce the level of output is not expected to be recovered to pre-COVID levels until early 2022. We expect unemployment to match this pattern, falling in 2021 but remaining above 7%. This all points to required ongoing policy support for some time” said Oster.
