New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose to -28.5 in September, up from August’s -41.8, but revised down from preliminary reading of -26.0. All sectors stayed negative with Agriculture at -72.2 and services at -31.7. Own Activity Outlook improved to -5.4, up from August’s -17.5, revised up from preliminary reading of -9.9. Agriculture activity was positive at 13.6 and contraction at 10.8. Services activity was worse at -12.1.
ANZ said business “appear relatively optimism”. But “as a reality check, though, the levels of most activity indicators remain very subdued relative to pre-COVID days, and are still at levels regrettably reminiscent of 2009.”
Also released from down under, New Zealand building permits rose 0.3% mom in August, versus expectation of -1.4% mom. Australia building permits dropped -1.6% mom, versus expectation of 0.1% mom in August. Australia private sector credit rose 0.0% mom in August, versus expectation of 0.2% mom.
AUD/NZD is still channelling well downwards. Fall from is seen as a corrective move for now, as also suggested by the structure. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.0850 resistance holds, to 38.2% retracement of 0.9994 to 1.1043 at 1.0642. We’d expect strong support from there to contain downside to complete the pull back.
