SNB is widely anticipated to maintain its key policy rate at 1.75%. However, the focus of market analysts and economists has shifted to speculating the timing of potential policy loosening. Recent polls conducted by Reuters and Bloomberg revealed a consensus among economists that SNB would only start cutting interest rates in Q3 next year.
The Reuters poll, conducted between December 5-11, gathered responses from 31 economists, all of whom unanimously agreed that SNB would hold the rate at 1.75% in the upcoming meeting. A substantial majority, approximately 70% (or 21 out of 31), predicted that SNB would maintain this rate until at least the third quarter of next year. Furthermore, a notable minority of 45% (or 13 out of 29) economists foresee the first rate cut by being pushed back to December 2024 or even later.
In comparison, a separate Reuters poll last week focusing on ECB revealed that around 57% of economists expect the ECB to implement at least one rate cut by the end of June. This comparison highlights expectations that SNB could starting cutting rates after ECB.
Additionally, a Bloomberg poll conducted from December 1-7 forecasts SNB initiate an interest rate cut in September next year. This would be followed by two more reductions of 25 bps each, anticipated in December 2024 and March 2025.
