ECB’s Lane: Disinflation process necessarily bumpy at current phase

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane described disinflation process as “necessarily bumpy” at the current phase. In a speech, he pointed out that headline inflation is expected to “fluctuate around current levels in the near term,” influenced by base effects in energy sector and recent reversal of service inflation spikes caused by the early timing of Easter.

Meanwhile, Lane noting that while wage pressures are “gradually moderating,” they remain above what would be considered normal or steady-state levels. He emphasized that achieving ECB’s inflation target involves not just controlling wage growth but also managing profit margins across the economy.

Looking ahead to June Governing Council meeting, Lane indicated that ECB’s decisions would be informed by “updated staff projections” and comprehensive data on wage and profit dynamics from the early months of the year. He suggested that if these updated assessments and data provide stronger confidence that inflation is converging to ECB’s targets, it could be “appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.”

Full speech of ECB Lane here.