In a speech today, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler described the U.S. labor market as “stable,” noting that key indicators such as the unemployment rate, currently at 4.2%, have remained within a narrow and consistent range.
She highlighted that temporary layoffs have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and both job vacancies and quit rates have plateaued, indicating a moderation in labor market churn.
Kugler further stated that the economy is likely “close to maximum employment,” referencing model-based estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (u*) that align with the current 4.2% level.
