OPEC+ surprised markets over the weekend by agreeing to boost crude production by 548k bpd barrels in August, outpacing expectations for a more modest 411k bpd increase. The alliance said the move reflects confidence in “a steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” noting that inventories remain low.
WTI crude dipped slightly at the Monday open but continues to hold above its short-term bottom at 65.21. Price action remains consolidative, and a near-term bounce is possible, though gains are likely to be capped by 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 65.21 at 70.42. The main question is whether 61.8% retracement of 55.20 to 78.87 at 64.24 could hold as fall from 78.87 resumes later.
While OPEC+ is leaning into demand strength, the market appears cautious about upside potential given rising supply and uncertain macro drivers.
