New Zealand Dollar found modest support after Q3 CPI data showed inflation rising back to the top of the RBNZ’s 1–3% target band. The 3.0% annual print, while firmer than Q2’s 2.7%, was largely in line with expectations and matched the RBNZ’s own August forecast. While the data limits the case for another large rate cut like the 50bps one at last meeting, it doesn’t materially alter the easing bias.
The RBNZ has signaled confidence that inflation will gradually ease toward 2% by mid-2026 as economic slack expands. The latest data confirm that while imported, or tradeable, inflation picked up, non-tradeable inflation — the domestically driven component — continued to cool, reinforcing the central bank’s belief that underlying pressures are softening. That leaves the door open for another 25bps cut later this year.
Technically, NZD/USD has just hit 100% projection of 0.6119 to 0.5799 from 0.6006 at 0.5686 last week. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD too, a short term bottom is likely formed at 0.5681. Some consolidations is likely in the near term, with prospect of stronger recovery.
But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.5844 resistance holds. Firm break of 0.5681 will resume the whole fall from 0.6119 to 161.8% projection at 0.5488, which is close to 0.5484 key support (2025 low so far).
