China’s October activity data pointed to a loss of momentum, with industrial production rising 4.9% yoy, down from September’s 6.5% yoy and below expectations of 5.6%. It marks the weakest annual pace since August 2024.
Retail sales also slowed, rising 2.9% yoy compared with 3.0% in September, though slightly outperforming expectations of 2.7% yoy. Still, it was the slowest pace since August last year, underscoring persistently cautious household demand. Excluding autos, consumer goods retail sales rose a firmer 4.0%, suggesting pockets of resilience but not enough to anchor a broad consumption recovery.
More concerning was the continued drag from investment: fixed asset investment fell -1.7% ytd yoy, deteriorating from -0.5% and missing expectations of -0.7%. Private-sector investment remained under heavy pressure, dropping -4.5%, underscoring structural weakness in confidence, property-linked spillovers, and limited risk appetite.
