Gold’s rebound is suddenly turning into something much bigger. After defending the 4,500 psychological level earlier this week, the metal has surged sharply as markets aggressively sell Dollar on signs that the US and Iran may be moving toward a formal agreement to end the war.
The first catalyst came when President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom,” signaling that Washington was prioritizing diplomacy over military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. Momentum then accelerated dramatically after reports that the US and Iran are now close to a peace memorandum framework.
Technically, the decisive break above 4,660.21 resistance suggests that the pullback from 4,889.24 has already completed at 4,500.67. The rebound is now expected to extend toward a retest of 4,889.24.
Firm break there would not only resume the broader rally from 4,098.45, but also strengthen the case that the correction from 5,598.38 ended with the three-wave decline into 4,098.45.
Under that scenario, Gold could accelerate further to 61.8% projection of 4,098.45 to 4,889.45 from 4,500.67 at 4,989.37, and then 100% projection at 5,291.46.
