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Week Ahead: Bank of Canada to Reduce Purchases; Global Economic Recovery to Pickup

The global economic recovery is gaining momentum as the world’s two largest economies continue to deliver robust economic readings. China’s economy grew 18.3% in the first quarter, a record rate that sets the example of what we can expect as the rest of the world recovers from COVID-19. The...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: More Evidence of Economic Recovery

U.S. Review More Evidence of Economic Recovery Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery is gaining momentum. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived, helped by an influx of stimulus in March, and industrial production rebounded from its partly weather-induced February decline. But supply chain constraints...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Federal Budget Headlines The Week Ahead

U.S. Highlights Headline inflation jumped in March, but it's too soon to sound the alarm. Economic slack is still high, inflation expectations benign, and the Fed unlikely to sit on the sidelines if they drift up persistently. Retail sales surged in March, thanks to massive income supports, accelerated vaccine...

Week Ahead – BoC Set to Taper, ECB Unlikely to Rock Euro

It will be an exciting week for financial markets, with two major central bank meetings and a storm of economic data to keep traders busy. The Bank of Canada seems ready to scale down its gigantic QE program, though the European Central Bank is unlikely to disturb the waters....

Forward Guidance: Canada’s Policy Makers to Take Center Stage Next Week

Next week will be a big one for policy announcements with the Federal Government set to table its first Budget in two years on Monday and the Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday. The Bank of Canada will report an upgrade to their economic growth forecasts in the April...

Dollar Edges Lower in Quiet Trading, Gold Extends Rally

Dollar edges lower today but there is no follow through selling so far, in quiet markets. Still, the greenback is set to end the week as the worst performer, followed by Canadian and Swiss Franc. Sterling dipped notably earlier today but quickly recovered. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are...

CAD Edges Higher, US Confidence Data Next

The Canadian dollar is slightly higher on Friday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2513, down 0.25% on the day. On the fundamental front, Canada will release tier-2 data, including Housing Starts. In the US, today's highlight is UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is expected to accelerate to 88.9 points. Canada ADP...

CAD Nudges into 1.24 Territory, Mfg. Sales Next

The Canadian dollar is in positive territory for a third consecutive day. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2493, down 0.20% on the day. It has been a relatively quiet day week for the pair, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of US retail...

Canadian Businesses More Optimistic in Q1 Business Outlook Survey

Future sales balance of opinion jumped to highest since 2009 Recovery remains uneven with businesses in high-contact service-sectors still struggling Inflation expectations edged higher, but remain in the central bank's target range Businesses were more confident in the economic recovery from mid-February to mid-March. Expected future sales rose to...

BoC: Business Sentiment Rises in 2021Q1, Before the Third Wave of the Pandemic

The Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (BOS) reported an improvement in business sentiment in the first quarter of 2021. The BOS indicator, a statistical summary of survey results, increased from 1.3 to 2.9 in 2021Q1. The resiliency of the economy to the pandemic and associated restrictions, as...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last

U.S. Review: Reopening Boom, while Supplies Last This week's economic data kicked off with a bang. The ISM Services Index jumped to 63.7, signaling the fastest pace of expansion in the index's 24-year history. The strong report came with some caveats, however, as the headline was propped up by...

The Weekly Bottom Line: A Few Dark Spots in Bright Economic Growth Prospects

U.S. Highlights U.S. equities jumped early this week and continued to move higher over the course of it despite the prospect of higher corporate taxes announced by the Biden administration. A few dark spots in the short-term outlook are supply chain disruptions, which are pushing up prices and weighing...

Week Ahead: Lockdowns and “Re-Openings”, Big Data Dump, and Earnings Season Begins!

The talk last week was all about the expectation of an upcoming economic boom into the spring and over the summer months.  Although there are current lockdowns spread throughout Europe and Canada, traders are forward-looking.  With vaccines rolling out non-stop and US stimulus checks, “re-openings” are occurring, or soon...

Canadian Jobs Data Solid: USD/CAD

The BOC will take note of the strong employment print, as they are currently the frontrunner to taper monetary policy! The Canadian Employment Change for March was +301,100 vs and expectation of +100,000 and +259,200 in February.  The number was strong across the board, with the breakdown split between +175,000...

Forward Guidance: Bank of Canada Surveys to Show Improved Expectations Before Latest Rounds of Lockdowns

We look for the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys on tap next week to show an improvement in sentiment as the survey window (mid-February to early March) predated the latest round of virus resurgence and lockdown measures. Similar to the last iteration, the BOS survey will likely...

Canada Employment Surged Higher in March

Stronger-than-expected 303k employment gain cut the remaining shortfall relative to pre-shock levels in half Easing containment measures allowed some recovery in hospitality sector, but gains broadly based The unemployment rate fell to 7.5% from 8.2% in February Renewed virus containment measures will weigh on April hospitality and retail-sector...

Canada: Employment Continues to Improve in March

The Canadian labour market added 303k jobs in March, well above consensus estimates that called for a 100k gain. Last month's improvement left employment 1.5% below the February 2020 level. The majority of the gains in March were in full-time work (+175k), but part-time growth was also impressive...

Canada employment grew 303k in Mar, unemployment rate dropped to 7.5%

Canada employment grew 303k, or 1.6% mom in March, well above expectation of 90k. Full time employment rose 175k while part-time employment rose 128k. Employment was then within 1.5% of its prepandemic level in February 2020. Unemployment rate dropped sharply by -0.7% to 7.5%, below expectation of 8.0%. That's...

Will Canada Job Report Boost CAD?

The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Friday and recorded slight gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.25% on the day. It has been a relatively quiet day week for the pair, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of key employment...

USD Prepares To End The Week Lower

The greenback seems poised to end the week lower against a number of its counterparts, in one of the worst weeks of the year. On the monetary front Fed officials tended to remain rather dovish, with Fed Chairman Powell downplaying inflationary risks for the US economy while St. Louis...

USD/CAD Forms Double Top Pattern Ahead Of Canada Jobs Numbers

The US dollar wavered after the weak initial jobless claims numbers. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), the number of people filing for initial jobless claims rose from 728,000 to 744,000 last week. This was a bigger increase than the median estimate of 680,000. In the same...

CAD Slips Despite Stellar Ivey PMI

The Canadian dollar has posted considerable losses on Wednesday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2634, up 0.55% on the day. On the fundamental front, the Ivey PMI sparkled in March, rising from 60.0 to 72.9 and blowing past the forecast of 62.0. The reading points to an improvement in economic...

Canada’s Trade Surplus Narrows Modestly in February  

Canada's trade surplus narrowed modestly from $1.2 billion to $1 billion in February. Exports (-2.7% m/m) fell slightly more than imports (-2.4%). The picture was a tad less encouraging after controlling for price effects. Export volumes were down 3.8%, while import volumes declined 3.5%. The decline in exports...

Ivey PMI Could Boost Canadian Dollar

The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and posted slight losses. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2549, up 0.25% on the day. Canada Ivey PMI expected to climb The Ivey PMI rebounded in impressive form in February, rising to 60.0, well into expansionary territory. This followed two straight readings below...

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Activity Marches Higher

Summary U.S. Review: Activity Marches Higher The improving public health position led to an easing of restrictions and pickup in activity across the country in March. Data this week show an economy set to fire on all cylinders. The daily vaccination pace continues to improve, employers added an impressive 916K...

Week Ahead – A Battle of Yields as RBA Meets, Fed and ECB Publish Minutes

With most markets closed on Monday for the Easter celebrations, it will be a fairly muted week as there’s not a lot on the agenda that can excite markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision will be the main highlight, but the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s and...

Week Ahead: Coronavirus Worsens, and the Bickering Begins Over Biden’s Infrastructure Plan

Monday is a holiday and many of the major markets will be closed.  Now that month-end and quarter-end are behind us, as well as Non-farm payrolls and OPEC, the focus for the markets will turn back to the rising number of coronavirus cases, particularly in Europe and Canada.  In...

The Weekly Bottom Line: Emerging Markets Are Weathering the Storm

U.S. Highlights Economic data tilted positive this week, with consumer confidence and the ISM manufacturing index rising respectively to one-year and 37-year highs, auguring for a strong showing for Friday's jobs report. President Biden unveiled a new $2.3 trillion spending initiative. The plan tilts toward infrastructure, but earmarks funds...

Forward Guidance: Canada’s Job Market Recovery Continued as Economy Reopened

We look for next week’s labour market report to show strong job growth in March (+150k) as virus containment measures continued to ease. Industries that make up the hospitality sector are massively over-represented in remaining economic weakness – accounting for 80% of the shortfall in total hours worked versus...

Has CAD Run Out Of Gas?

The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Thursday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2577, up 0.13% on the day. Ontario lockdown snuffs out CAD mini-rally Since the start of 2021, the Canadian dollar is up about one percent against its US cousin, but there are signs that the currency may have...