Thu, May 06, 2021 @ 01:36 GMT
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European Open: NZD And Risk Sentiment Fall, UK Data And Powell Up Next

With New Zealand looking to cool housing prices, traders were quick to offload NZ dollars during volatile overnight session for NZD crosses. Asian Indices: Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -7.1 points (-0.11%) to close at 6,745.40 Japan's Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -26 points (-0.24%) and currently trades...

Elliott Wave Weekly: USD/CHF to Continue Unfolding Upward Wave Correction

It seems like wave B is taking the form of a zigzag. If correct, the market should finish an upward impulse for wave ((a)) before wave ((b)) of B begins. Broadly, as shown on the two-day chart below, we’re likely going to have the rest of wave Y of...

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Risk Currencies Trimmed

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 16, USD drifted to NET LENGTH of 14 724 contracts to 5 837. Speculative long positions gained +2 816 contracts while shorts slumped -11 908 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR futures sank...

USDCHF Retraces Steep Rally, Trend Signals Remain Encouraging

USDCHF is trading within a tight downward-sloping channel, which seems to be a component of a potential bullish flag pattern following the steep rally to a seven-month high of 0.9374. The flag structure could be a positive trend continuation signal, backed by the rising shorter-term simple moving averages (SMAs) and...

Awaits BoE view on recovery, yields and inflation, GBP/CHF bullish in range

BoE is generally expected to keep bank rate unchanged at 0.10% today, and hold the QE target at GBP 875B. Both decisions should be by unanimous 9-0 votes. Governor Andrew Bailey sounded upbeat about economy economy in his comments earlier this week, even though that came with "a large...

Dollar Steady, Yields Impatient ahead of FOMC

The markets remain generally quiet today, awaiting FOMC rate decision. Sterling regains much of the ground lost earlier in the week. Canadian Dollar is also firm, in particular against other commodity currencies. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is paring some of yesterday's gains, while Aussie and Kiwi turn...

EURO In A Tight Range Ahead Of European Inflation Data

The Japanese yen declined against the US dollar after relatively weak trade numbers. According to the statistics agency, Japan's exports declined by 4.5% in February after rising 6.4% in the previous month. This was the first drop in three months and was partial because of weakness from the US...

USD Edges Slightly Higher

The FX market was rather mixed with little volatility on a rather quiet Monday, yet the greenback was still able to gain somewhat against its peers. There seems to be some cautiousness in the market just ahead of the FOMC's interest rate decision being released tomorrow. Despite the cautiousness...

USD/CHF Stays In Range

After its meteoric rise, the US dollar is likely to go sideways as traders await a new catalyst from this week’s FOMC. The break below 0.9260 along with a bearish MA cross was a sign that the price action has gone into a consolidation if not a reversal. A brief...

Sterling Dips Against Euro and Swiss, S&P 500 Hit New Record

Markets remain cautious overall. While DOW and S&P 500 hit new record highs overnight, the gains were just modest. Gold and WTI oil are also both stuck in tight range, awaiting breakout. In the currency markets, Sterling is apparently under some pressure from cross selling against other European majors....

Elliott Wave Weekly: USD/CHF To Continue Unfolding Upward Wave Correction

It seems like wave B is taking the form of a zigzag. If correct, the market should finish an upward impulse for wave ((a)) before wave ((b)) of B begins. Broadly, as shown on the two-day chart below, we’re likely going to have the rest of wave Y of...

CFTC Commitments of Traders -Net Short of USD Index Futures Fell as Rising Yields Lent Support

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended March 9, NET SHORT of USD Index futures fell -1 216 contracts to 8 887. Speculative long positions gained +2 992 contracts while shorts were up 1 776 contracts. Concerning European currencies, NET LENGTH in EUR...

British Pound Holds Steady Ahead Of UK GDP Data

US and Asian stocks rallied after Joe Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package. The package includes funds for individuals, companies, states and local governments, and unemployment benefits extension. As such, they will help the economy bounce back after going through the worst contraction in modern history. However, the...

CHF/JPY 4H Chart: Decline Could Continue

The Swiss Franc has been declining in a descending channel pattern against the Japanese Yen since the middle of February. The currency pair fell by 1.06% during last week's trading sessions. As for the near future, the CHF/JPY exchange rate could continue to edge lower. Bearish traders are likely to...

CAD/CHF 4H Chart: Bulls Could Prevail

The Canadian Dollar has surged by 4.01% against the Swiss Franc since March 1. The CAD/CHF currency pair tested the 0.7400 level during this week's trading sessions. Everything being equal, the exchange rate is likely to continue to trend higher during the following trading sessions. A breakout through the upper...

Sentiments Approved after US 10-Yr Auction, ECB Comments on Yields Awaited

Australian Dollar leads other commodity currencies higher today on improved market sentiments. Asian stocks are trading generally higher, following the record close in DOW overnight. Investors found some comfort from the soft yet acceptable 10-year auctions. Dollar, Yen and Swiss Franc turn softer as a result. Now, focus will...

USD/CHF Starts Corrective Decrease, Dollar Facing Hurdles

Key Highlights USD/CHF traded as high as 0.9375 before correcting lower. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at 0.9315 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidating above major support levels. The US Consumer Price Index increased 1.7% in Feb 2021 (YoY), up...

USD/CHF Drops On Profit-Taking

Retreating US yields have led to profit-taking on the US dollar. An RSI divergence in the overbought area was a sign of a loss in the bullish momentum. Then a 100-pip drop below the 20 and 30-hour moving averages and a bearish MA cross confirmed the overextension. The pair is now testing its...

USD/CHF 4H Chart: Bulls Could Prevail

The US Dollar has surged by 4.74% against the Swiss Franc since the middle of February. The currency pair breached a six-month high at the 0.9300 level during yesterday's trading session. Technical indicators suggest buying signals on the 4H and daily time-frame charts. Most likely, the exchange rate could continue...

Elliott Wave Weekly: USD/CHF To Continue Unfolding Upward Wave Correction

The market continue rising, that’s why I adjusted the wave count. It seems like wave A is over, so a wave B correction might be already underway.. In this case, the price is going to moving sideways in the days to come. Broadly, the pair should continue unfolding a...

Yen Retreats After Weak Japan GDP Data

The Japanese yen weakened against the US dollar after relatively weak economic numbers. According to the statistics agency, the country’s economy expanded by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, slightly below the median estimate of 4.1%. This led to an annualised expansion of 11.7%, also lower than the expected 12.7%....

10-Yr Yield Couldn’t Break Loose from 1.5 Magnet, Dollar and Canadian Soared

Strong treasury yield continued to be a major theme last week. But for now, it seemed 10-year yield could still break loose from the "magnetic field" of S&P dividend yield at around 1.5%. Indeed, US stocks, including NASDAQ staged a strong rebound on Friday, as 10-year yield settled back...

USD Gains Ahead Of The US Employment Report

The USD strengthened against a number of its counterparts yesterday as Fed Chairman Powell stated that he expects some inflationary pressures as the economy reopens and at the same time kept a dovish tone. The Fed’s Chairman also noted that the rise in yields was “notable and caught my...

Swiss Franc and Yen Resumed Selloff, Markets Mixed Elsewhere

Selloff in Swiss Franc and Yen is the main focus today. But the forex markets are mixed elsewhere. Commodity currencies are mildly firmer as led by Aussie, but major pairs are just bounded in very tight range at the time of writing. Euro, Sterling and Dollar are mixed for...

USDCHF Continues Uptrend Above 200-SMA, Overbought Signals Strengthen

USDCHF found new buyers above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), advancing its bullish impulse towards a fresh six-month high of 0.9236 on Thursday. The buying appetite in the market drove the RSI and the Stochastics well into the overbought area, though with the indicators showing no convincing signs of...

USD/CHF Reaches 5-Month High

Today’s jobless claims may stir up the volatility in the US dollar. A low number would heighten the reflation fear as the labour market may have recovered faster than expected. The pair is hovering right under last October’s high around 0.9200. The recent drop of the RSI from the overbought...

EUR/CHF upside breakout, a look at GBP/CHF and CHF/JPY too

EUR/CHF's rise from 1.0503 resumes by breaking through 1.1096 resistance, and hits as high as 1.1118 so far. Further rally should now be seen to 100% projection of 1.0503 to 1.0915 from 1.0737 at 1.1149. Sustained break there will indicate upside acceleration and carries larger bullish implications. Next target...

Currency Trading Subdued, But Risk Aversion Building Up

Huge volatility continues in stock markets as Asian indices dive following the selloff in US overnight. But movements in exchange rates are relatively subdued, and mixed. Swiss Franc, Yen and Euro are currently the weaker ones for the week, followed by Dollar. Australian Dollar is leading other commodity currencies...

USD/CHF and DXY Mending Their Broken Relationship

The Swiss Franc and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have been highly correlated this year, with a correlation coefficient above +0.90 for most of the year. The correlation coefficient of +1.00 indicates a perfect correlation, indicating that the 2 assets move perfectly together.  A reading above +0.90 is pretty...

Dollar Recovers Despite Sluggish ADP Job Growth, Yields Up Again

Dollar recovers in early US session as sluggish ADP job growth drags down stock futures. Additionally, treasury yields are having a mild rebound. At this point, Sterling is following as the strongest followed the day, then Canadian. New Zealand Dollar is leading Australian Lower, followed by Swiss Franc and...