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The USD/CAD is showing the DCC (Dark Cloud Cover) variant pattern formation on 4h timeframe. The formation is noticed within the range of Weekly resistance pivots, and the price is trying to pullback within the POC zone where it might reject. The POC zone 1.2500-1.2520 (W H3/H4, trend line, DCC, Descending PPR) could reject the price towards 1.2432 and 1.2398. Have in mind that stronger bearish continuation is possible only when/if the price breaks below EMA89/trendline 1.2460. At this point price is retracing to the POC zone and we will see if the zone will reject it if the price gets into it. Ideally for bears 1.2595 should hold, else the price will probably make a new leg to the upside.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

M H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Monthly Resistance)

M L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Monthly Support)

M L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Monthly Support)

PPR - Progressive Polynomial Channel

AP -Andrew's Pitchfork

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1790

My outlook is bearish after the second failure at 1.1880, for a break through 1.1790, towards 1.1660 major support. 

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.78

The bias is still bearish, for a tight test of 111.50, with a risk of a dip to 111.00. The latter should provide a reliable base for another upswing towards 114.50 area. Trigger on the upside is 112.25 high.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3279

The recent rise has tested precisely 1.3340 hurdle, but the bias is still positive, so there is a risk of another attempt towards the mentioned resistance. An eventual break through that area will challenge 1.3460 zone. Crucial on the downside is 1.3220 and a violation of that zone will signal a slide towards 1.3000 area.

The euro has moved back towards the 1.1800 support level against the U.S dollar, after failing to find buying interest above the 1.1879 level. On Friday, the euro fell back from the 1.1875 level, after the release of weaker than expected inflation figures from the U.S economy.

Today's trading sentiment surrounding the EURUSD pair is neutral to slightly bearish. Traders will look to how strong buying and selling interest around the 1.1800 level, which should give further indication of the pairs next directional move.

The economic calendar remains fairly light in the European and U.S trading session, therefore traders will likely remain focused on the Catalonia crisis and key technical trading levels.

In the near-term the 1.1790 level remains a critical support level for the EURUSD, while a strong move back above the 1.1825 level should be taken as bullish.

Key intraday EURUSD support below the 1.1800 level is found at 1.1790 and then 1.1770. Further support below the 1.1770 level is found at the former weekly pivot point, at 1.1740 and the crucial 1.1710 level.

To the upside, key resistance is found at the euro's weekly pivot point, at 1.1807 and the 1.1825 level. Further intraday resistance is found at the 1.1845 level, and former swing high, at 1.1875

The British pound has started the new trading week just below the 1.3300 level against the U.S dollar, after hitting 1.3337 on Friday. Updates coming from Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK, continue to dictate the GBPUSD pairs intraday direction.

Today's trading sentiment surrounding the GBPUSD is neutral to slightly bullish, after the pair rebounded strongly last week, and closed the weekly candle well above the 1.3220 level.

The economic calendar remains fairly light today for sterling, however, we see the release of CPI inflation data from the United Kingdom, and a key speech from BOE Governor Mark Carney tomorrow.

Going forward, the GBPUSD pairs 100-week moving average remains the next upside barrier for buyers, located at 1.3333. Traders should also watch the daily price close and demand around the 1.3333 level extremely carefully.

Key intraday technical resistance for the GBPUSD pair is found at 1.3310 and the pairs monthly pivot point, at 1.3321. Further resistance is found at the pairs 100-week moving average, at 1.3333, and the key 1.3360 level.

To the downside, key intraday support for the GBPUSD pair is found at 1.3280, and the crucial 1.3267 level. Once below 1.3267, further support is found at the pairs weekly pivot point, at 1.3233 and the key 1.3220 level.

The global financial markets will be off to a slow start on Monday amid a dearth of economic data from around the world. A headline Eurozone trade report and US manufacturing survey will make headlines on this otherwise non-eventful day.

Eurostat, the European Commission's statistical agency, will release the August trade balance at 09:00 GMT. The seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted figures will be published.

In terms of geopolitics, Catalonia's president faces a critical decision that could determine the outcome of the region's secessionist movement. The Spanish government has given Carles Puigdemont until Monday to clarify whether he has declared independence following the Catalan referendum.

Shifting gears to North America, the New York Federal Reserve Bank will release the Empire State manufacturing index at 12:30 GMT. The monthly report provides a snapshot of business conditions for regional manufacturers.

North of the border, the Bank of Canada (BOC) will issue its Business Outlook Survey at 14:30 GMT. The report provides an overview of business conditions in the Canadian economy. Monday's report could shed light on how domestic businesses are coping with multiple interest rate hikes.

Earlier in the day, China's National Statistics Bureau said consumer inflation rose as expected in September, while producer prices shot up more than forecast.

China's consumer price index (CPI) accelerated 1.6% in the 12 months through September, following a 1.8% increase the previous month. Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) rose 6.9% year-over-year, much higher than August's 6.3% and forecasts calling for the same.

EUR/USD

The euro opened slightly lower in Asian trading but continued to hover above the 1.18 US handle. The EUR/USD rebounded sharply last week as the US dollar weakened against a basket of world peers. The technical picture is neutral, as investors await fresh trading catalysts in the form of economic data and monetary policy. The EUR/USD faces immediate support at 1.1795, followed by 1.1760. On the opposite side of the ledger, immediate resistance is located at 1.1865, followed by 1.1890.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is trading in positive territory to start the Monday session, as the greenback continued to trim some of its losses from the previous week. The pair advanced 0.2% overnight to trade just below 112.00. Despite the modest rally, the USD/JPY faces a difficult short-term outlook after prices fell below the 112.20 support region. The pair now faces immediate support at the 26 September low of 1.11.45. Meanwhile, immediate resistance is located at 112.10.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD advanced on Monday to come within 10 pips of the 1.2500 level. The pair trimmed some of its weekly losses on Thursday and Friday even as oil prices continued to rise. NAFTA talks are in the spotlight for the USD/CAD, and negative headlines from the Trump camp are likely to impact the loonie much more than the greenback.

XAUUSD (1302.55): Gold prices rallied to the psychological level of $1300.00 an ounce on Friday. Price action remains trading within the steep rising wedge pattern which could suggest a downside break down in prices. However, with price trading above the minor support level of 1296, we could expect the near-term declines to stall at this level. A breakdown below 1296 is neededin order for gold prices to post a correction towards the 1275 - 1274 level of support.

USDJPY (111.94): The USDJPY was seen falling to the support level at 111.74 on Friday. However, price action posted a strong bullish candle on the 4-hour session off this support. This suggests that the range between 113.00 and 111.74 could be maintained in the near term. USDJPY has been trading within this range for the past three weeks, and further gains or losses are expected only on a breakout from this range. To the upside, USDJPY will need to rally breaching the resistance level of 113.00 region. This could shift the bias to the upside for a test towards 115.00 region. To the downside, below 111.74 the next main support is seen at 111.00 region.

EURUSD (1.1803): The EURUSD was seen giving up the gains by Friday's close as price closed with a doji pattern on the daily session. The euro was seen opening weaker this morning as price gapped to the downside below the support level of 1.1822. Further declines could be expected which will see the EURUSD retest the breakout level from the falling wedge pattern that initially sent prices higher. A retest to this breakout level, close to the support established at 1.1720 could see another minor bounce to the upside. A break down below 1.1688 is essential for EURUSD to establish the downside bias. However, for the near term, we expect the range between 1.1822 and 1.1720 to be maintained into next week's ECB meeting.

The US dollar was seen trading flat by Friday's close despite the initial losses after data showed that consumer prices rose less than expected. Data from the Labor department showed on Friday that headline consumer prices rose 0.5% on the month in September, accelerating from 0.4% previously. But the data was below forecasts of 0.6%. Core consumer prices also rose 0.2% maintaining the same pace of gains as the previous month. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose 1.6% in September slightly below the forecasts of 1.7%.

The euro was seen trading weaker after comments from Draghi showed that substantial degree of monetary policy was still needed. His comments come ahead of next Thursday's ECB meeting where the central bank is expected to announce another round of tapering.

Earlier today, China's CPI data was seen rising 1.6% on the month as expected while producer prices rose 6.9%, beating expectations of a 6.3% increase. Later in the day, the US Empire state manufacturing index is to be released followed by the quarterly inflation data from New Zealand.

After enjoying a 4-week rally, the dollar came under pressure last week, falling against most of its major peers, leaving many traders questioning whether the most recent bull run is over for the greenback.

Although U.S. consumer prices rose 0.5% in September, the biggest increase in eight months, when stripping out food and energy, core CPI only recorded a 0.1% increase, suggesting that inflationary pressure remains absent from the largest economy in the world. Moreover, while retails sales jumped 1.6% in September, the largest since March 2015, when you exclude automobiles, gasoline, food services and building materials, core retail sales only recorded a 0.4% increase. The disappointment was felt in fixed income markets, with 10-year treasury yields falling 5 basis points on Friday. However, expectations for a thirdrate hike in December remained above 80%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Given that a December rate hike is almost entirely priced in, the dollar will be driven by longer-term expectations. The three rate hikes plotted on the Fed's dot plot for 2018, is nowhere near to markets' expectations of only one, and the main risk facing the greenback is who will lead the Fed after Janet Yellen departs. It will require robust economic data for dollar bulls to regain control, particularly in wages and inflation expectations. If these two metrics remain weak in the final quarter of the year, I think the dollar will continue to be dragged lower.

Will Carles Puigdemont announce independence?

Euro traders are awaiting the announcement from Charles Puigdemont, on whether he will declare independence from Spain. The deadline given to him is today 8:00 am GMT. If Mr. Puigdemont claims independence, Spain would move towards dissolving Catalonia's parliament and call new local elections. We still don't know how this political conflict will end, but it will no doubt create downside risk to the single currency. However, I still believe that such threats are insignificant and the ECB's policy will remain the dominant driver in the days to come. Tuesday's CPI report will likely help to outline expectations for ECB's monetary policy decision on 26 October.

Iraq conflict moving oil prices

The oil price is the only asset class showing big moves on a quiet Monday. Brent is up more than 1%, trading at its highest level since 28 September, after Iraqi forces began marching towards Kirkuk- an oil-rich Kurdish province. Clashes have been reported between Kurdish fighters and Iraqi forces early today, threatening to disrupt output from Kurdish controlled fields. If the 600,000 barrels a day exports from Kirkuk's oil fields are halted, I expect Brent to retest September's high of $59.49. Oil traders are also monitoring the U.S. – Iranian situation very closely. If the U.S. Congress goes ahead with rekindling economic sanctions on Tehran, after Trump decertifies the nuclear deal, Brent prices will likely breach the $60 benchmark.

'Stupid' investors made more than 400% profit year-to-date

Despite JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimoncalling people buying Bitcoin 'stupid', and stating that they will 'pay the price for their stupidity', the cryptocurrency surged to a new high of $5,846 on Friday and continued to hover close to this record level. The attempts by government to crackdown on cryptocurrencies, with China being the biggest nay-sayer, is not stopping the growth of wallets in the digital currency. Since Bitcoin entered the mainstream, many investors, including hedge funds, want to be a part of this experiment and this has lead into more inflows into Bitcoin. It's difficult to know whether a bubble is being created, as there are no specific metrics that can be used as a benchmark to determine Bitcoin's intrinsic value. Given that the cryptocurrency is likely to continue attracting new investors, we're likely to see news highs in the weeks to come.