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Forex markets remained relatively steady following the January US CPI release, with the slightly softer-than-expected headline reading failing to trigger major repositioning. The moderation in inflation was largely driven by lower energy prices, while underlying pressures showed only gradual improvement. The data did little to materially alter Fed expectations.

A March hold is effectively locked in, with markets pricing around an 88% probability of no change. Attention instead remains on June, where odds of a rate cut stand near 70%, reflecting expectations that gradual disinflation will eventually allow the Fed to ease.

With policy expectations stable, focus now shifts back to broader risk sentiment. US equity futures were flat at the time of writing, leaving open the question of whether yesterday’s AI-driven selloff will extend into the final session of the week.

On the trade front, according to the Financial Times, US President Donald Trump is considering scaling back some tariffs on steel and aluminum products. Officials reportedly believe certain levies have raised consumer costs on items such as cans and tins. The administration is said to be reviewing affected products and may exempt select items while halting further expansion of tariff lists.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that any adjustments would likely involve clarification on “incidental objects,” though ultimate authority rests with the president. Markets will watch closely for confirmation, as even limited tariff easing could modestly support sentiment.

For the week so far, Dollar is the weakest performer, followed by Sterling and Kiwi. Yen leads gains, with Swiss Franc and Aussie also firm. Euro and Loonie sit mid-pack. Positioning remains fluid, and a renewed shift in risk appetite could still reshape currency rankings before weekend.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is flat. DAX is up 0.22%. CAC is down -0.32%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.017 at 4.438. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.014 at 2.769. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.21%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.72%. China Shanghai SSE fell -1.26%. Singapore Strait Times fell -1.57%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.022 to 2.213.

US CPI Cools to 2.4% as energy drag offsets shelter gains

US headline CPI eased from 2.7% yoy to 2.4% in January, slightly below expectations of 2.5% and marking the lowest reading since May.

Core CPI also moderated, slipping from 2.6% to 2.5%, matching forecasts and reaching its lowest level since early 2021. Over the past 12 months, the energy index fell -0.1%, while food prices rose 2.9%.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2%, while core CPI increased 0.3%. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly gain, rising 0.2%, alongside a 0.2% increase in food prices. These advances were partially offset by a -1.5% decline in energy prices, which helped cap overall inflation momentum.

The data reinforce the view that inflation pressures are gradually easing, though core components — particularly shelter — continue to keep underlying price growth above the Fed’s 2% target.

BoE’s Pill warns disinflation incomplete despite projected CPI drop

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said UK underlying inflation remains around 2.5%. He emphasized that policy must continue to bear down on price pressures to ensure disinflation is sustained.

While headline inflation is projected to fall toward 2% in April or May, Pill noted that much of the expected decline reflects temporary effects from measures announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November budget. Stripping out that half-percentage-point impact, underlying price pressures remain firmer than the 2% target.

"In order to complete that (disinflation) process, monetary policy has a part of play and that means we do need to retain some restrictiveness in the stance of monetary policy until that process of disinflation is complete," Pill said.

Pill said monetary policy still carries a degree of restrictiveness, even if its exact magnitude has become "more ambiguous now". "Perhaps there’s more ambiguity about the extent of restriction than there is ambiguity about the incompleteness of the disinflation process to target," he added.

Swiss CPI flat as imported prices drag

Switzerland’s consumer prices slipped -0.1% mom in January, undershooting expectations for a flat reading. The decline was largely driven by a -0.6% drop in imported product prices, while domestic prices edged up 0.1% on the month. Core CPI, which excludes fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel, rose 0.1%, suggesting limited underlying pressure.

On an annual basis, headline inflation held steady at 0.1% yoy, in line with expectations. Core inflation was unchanged at 0.5%, with domestic product prices also steady at 0.5% from a year earlier. The data point to a subdued price environment, with limited momentum building in domestic costs.

Imported prices remained a key drag, falling -1.5% year-on-year compared with a -1.6% decline previously. The stronger Swiss Franc and softer external price dynamics continue to suppress imported inflation, keeping overall price growth well below levels seen elsewhere in Europe.

BoJ’s Tamura says inflation becoming “sticky,” sees scope to tighten

BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said in a speech that the wage–price cycle the Bank has been aiming to establish remains intact, with inflation increasingly driven by domestic factors rather than imported cost shocks. He argued that inflation is “becoming endogenous and sticky,” as higher labor costs replace raw material prices as the primary driver.

Tamura noted, as early as this spring the Bank could judge its price stability target achieved — provided wage growth in 2026 is confirmed to be consistent with the 2% goal for a third consecutive year. Such confirmation would mark a significant milestone in Japan’s long struggle to exit deflation.

He cautioned, however, that price developments warrant close attention as Yen resumes depreciation. Also, as firms continue to lift wages, there is strong potential for higher labor costs to be passed through across production, distribution and retail stages.

Tamura also there remains “considerable distance” to the neutral interest rate level, implying that even further rate hikes would leave financial conditions accommodative. The challenge, he said, is to avoid both a premature tightening that risks deflation and an environment of persistent inflation that exceeds what can be considered moderate — a balancing act that keeps normalization gradual.

NZ BNZ manufacturing eases to 55.2, but signals continued expansion

New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index eased from 56.1 to 55.2 in January, indicating a slight moderation in momentum but remaining firmly in expansion territory. Production slipped from 57.5 to 56.6, employment edged down from 53.7 to 52.9, and new orders cooled from 59.9 to 56.4, pointing to slower yet still solid activity.

Despite the pullback, BNZ described the latest reading as reflecting a “healthy level of expansion.” Senior Economist Doug Steel said the January PMI adds to evidence that the economy has “finally turned the corner,” aligning with forecasts and a broader set of indicators suggesting decent growth.

However, underlying sentiment showed some softening. The proportion of positive comments from respondents fell to 47.7% in January, down from 57.1% in December and 54.4% in November. While the sector remains in growth mode, the decline in optimism hints at a more cautious tone among manufacturers as 2026 begins.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1853; (P) 1.1871; (R1) 1.1891; More….

EUR/USD recovers mildly from 55 4H EMA but stays in established tight range. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.1928 will target a retest on 1.2081 high. Decisive break there and sustained trading above 1.2 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, however, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1756) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1470) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

US headline CPI eased from 2.7% yoy to 2.4% in January, slightly below expectations of 2.5% and marking the lowest reading since May.

Core CPI also moderated, slipping from 2.6% to 2.5%, matching forecasts and reaching its lowest level since early 2021. Over the past 12 months, the energy index fell -0.1%, while food prices rose 2.9%.

On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2%, while core CPI increased 0.3%. Shelter remained the largest contributor to the monthly gain, rising 0.2%, alongside a 0.2% increase in food prices. These advances were partially offset by a -1.5% decline in energy prices, which helped cap overall inflation momentum.

The data reinforce the view that inflation pressures are gradually easing, though core components — particularly shelter — continue to keep underlying price growth above the Fed’s 2% target.

Full US CPI release here.

BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said UK underlying inflation remains around 2.5%. He emphasized that policy must continue to bear down on price pressures to ensure disinflation is sustained.

While headline inflation is projected to fall toward 2% in April or May, Pill noted that much of the expected decline reflects temporary effects from measures announced in Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November budget. Stripping out that half-percentage-point impact, underlying price pressures remain firmer than the 2% target.

"In order to complete that (disinflation) process, monetary policy has a part of play and that means we do need to retain some restrictiveness in the stance of monetary policy until that process of disinflation is complete," Pill said.

Pill said monetary policy still carries a degree of restrictiveness, even if its exact magnitude has become "more ambiguous now". "Perhaps there’s more ambiguity about the extent of restriction than there is ambiguity about the incompleteness of the disinflation process to target," he added.

• EUR/USD is in a tight consolidation phase ahead of critical US macroeconomic data, marking its fourth consecutive day of subdued movement.
• The primary market focus is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with consensus forecasting a slight slowdown in January's headline and core inflation.
• The pair's direction depends on US data: hot CPI could push EUR/USD toward 1.1785, while signs of a cooling US labor market could see it retest 1.2000.

EUR/USD entered a phase of tight consolidation this morning as traders adopted a "wait-and-see" posture ahead of critical macroeconomic data.

After hitting weekly highs near 1.1928, the pair drifted lower to trade around the 1.1850–1.1870 region, marking its fourth consecutive day of subdued movement.

A barrage of European data releases failed to inspire a breakout this morning. According to EuroStat, the number of employed persons in the Euro Area rose by 0.2% from the previous quarter to 176.13 million in the final quarter of 2025, ahead of the market expectations of a 0.1% increase, according to a preliminary estimate.

It was the bloc's 19th consecutive period of employment growth, extending the slow but consistent trend of increasing jobs in the European labor market, despite concerns that a stronger euro would reduce orders for major employers.

Despite this, EUR/USD continued to coil this morning. Will the US CPI data be enough to bring EUR/USD out of its funk and stoke some volatility?

US dollar and CPI data to Play a Role?

One of the main reasons for Friday’s stagnation is the looming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors are bracing for January inflation figures, which were delayed due to a brief partial US government shutdown earlier in the month. Consensus forecasts suggest:

• Headline Inflation: A slowdown to 2.5% YoY (from 2.7%).
• Core Inflation: A slight ease to 2.5% YoY (from 2.6%).

Beyond inflation, market sentiment was soured by renewed concerns over Artificial Intelligence (AI). Recent comments from industry leaders regarding AI’s potential to disrupt white-collar jobs within the next 18 months triggered a risk-off mood on Wall Street. This benefited the safe-haven US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the Euro.

US CPI YoY

Source: TradingView

Looking Forward: What Will Move the Needle?

The path for EUR/USD will be dictated by two main factors:

Inflation Realities: If the U.S. CPI comes in "hotter" than expected, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish pause, likely pushing the pair toward the 1.1785 support level as rate-cut expectations for June are pushed back.

Once the inflation print is out of the way, markets will continue to focus on the US labour market.

Labor Market Strength: While January’s Nonfarm Payrolls were strong, rising jobless claims (reaching 227K this week) suggest underlying cracks. Any further signs of a cooling U.S. labor market could weaken the Dollar and allow the Euro to retest the 1.2000 psychological barrier.

Technical Analysis on EUR/USD

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is on a four-day losing streak after peaking just above the 1.1900 handle.

As long as bulls keep EUR/USD above the swing low at 1.1769, the momentum remains in favor of the bulls.

The period-14 RSI also remains above the 50 handle which hints at bullish momentum.

A break below this level may still struggle to gain traction as a host of key support areas rest below.

First will be the 1.1700 region with the 100-day MA resting just below at 1.1682. This region could prove a tough nut to crack especially given the narrative around the US dollar.

However, if risk sentiment remains fragile and we get a hot CPI print, then we could see a break of this key support zone and test the trendline.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, February 13, 2026

Source: TradingView.com

Safe Trades.

EUR/USD ended the week at 1.1868, remaining within a narrow sideways range for the fourth consecutive session. The market has adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of January's US consumer price index. The report could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Forecasts suggest a slowdown in headline inflation to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to ease to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Earlier in the week, strong employment data confirmed the resilience of the labour market, although recent jobless claims came in higher than expected. Investors are now pricing in rates remaining unchanged in March, followed by two 25-basis-point cuts in the second half of the year, in June and September.

The broader backdrop for EUR/USD remains clear: most Fed officials have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are not ready to resume rate cuts imminently. Despite previous easing and the current rate range of 3.50-3.75%, inflation remains below 3%, and the economy continues to demonstrate stability. January's employment data only strengthens the case for a pause.

While some Fed policymakers support further easing, they remain in the minority. The market is shifting expectations for the first cut closer to July. For EUR/USD, this maintains structural support for the dollar. The pair's next move will depend on inflation and signs of a real cooling in the US economy.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD remains in a sideways consolidation phase following January's upward momentum. The price is held within the 1.1785-1.1930 range and is currently trading near 1.1870. Bollinger Bands have narrowed, signalling declining volatility. The MACD is hovering near the zero line, indicating weak momentum, while the Stochastic oscillator remains neutral, without a clear directional signal. The market is trading in the middle of the range.

On the H1 chart, price action reflects a tight consolidation with occasional volatility spikes. Buyers quickly absorbed the latest downward move, but attempts to break above 1.1925 have failed. The price has stabilised near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD remains close to zero, and the Stochastic oscillator is turning lower in neutral territory. In the near term, range trading remains the preferred strategy.

Conclusion

In summary, EUR/USD remains in a state of consolidation, trapped in its narrowest range in weeks as markets await the crucial US inflation report. The pair is caught between two opposing forces: resilient US economic data and delayed Fed easing expectations (supporting the dollar), versus a relatively hawkish ECB stance and already priced-in policy divergence (supporting the euro).

Technically, compressed volatility and neutral indicators signal a breakout may be approaching, but its direction will depend entirely on tonight's CPI outcome. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would likely push the pair towards the lower boundary at 1.1785, while softer inflation could trigger a retest of resistance near 1.1930. Until then, the range remains the game.

Key takeaways

• Dow pulls back after fresh highs: The Dow Jones hit a new all-time high near 50,335 but has since slipped back toward its 20-day moving average as broader US indices post week-to-date losses, led by renewed weakness in technology stocks.
• Tech drag, defensives hold firm: The sell-off was driven mainly by the tech sector, with Cisco plunging 12%, while defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Utilities outperformed.
• Recovery hinges on key levels: Holding above 49,265 support keeps the rebound scenario alive, with a break above 49,940 opening room to retest record highs; failure below support risks a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average near 48,900/48,710.

This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Dow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loom”, published on 13 January 2026.

Since our last analysis, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to scale a fresh all-time high in February and hit our highlighted resistance of 50,265/50,335.

US stock indices are the worst performers so far this week

Fig. 1: Global stock indices week-to-date performances as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

The US stock market is on track to end the week on a weaker footing, where all four major US benchmark stock indices have recorded week-to-date losses as of Thursday, 12 February 2026; Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.4%), S&P 500 (-1.9%), Nasdaq 100 (-2.3%), and small-caps Russell 2000 (-2.7%) (see Fig. 1).

Yesterday’s opening hours gains at the start of the US session evaporated and transformed into an almost broad-based selling across the board, except for the defensive sectors in the S&P 500 that bucked against the bearish trend; Consumer Staples (+1.4%) and Utilities (1.2%).

The main catalyst for the weak performance has been renewed weakness seen in the technology stocks; the S&P 500 Technology sector was the worst performing sector on Thursday (-2.6%), dragged down by Cisco Systems, which plummeted by 12%, its worst single day drop in nearly four years, with its warning that higher memory costs will be adversely affect its profit margins.

The short-term technical chart of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) is now showing some signs of stabilization after yesterday’s sell-off.

Let's examine the short-term trajectory of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index and its supporting elements.

Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Potential recovery at 20-day moving average

Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 13 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: Ratio chart of S&P Banks ETF over S&P 500 ETF as of 12 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the 49,265 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, and clearance above 49,940 upside trigger level increases the chances of the recovery to retest the current all-time high area of 50,530 printed on 10 February 2026, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 50,695 (Fibonacci extension) (see Fig. 2).

On the flip side, a break below 49,265 invalidates the bullish scenario for a deeper minor corrective decline to extend further towards the next intermediate support at 48,900/48,710 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.

Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias

• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index has flashed out a bullish divergence condition at its oversold region (see Fig. 2).
• The US financial sector, with a weightage of around 28%, is the largest weighted component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
• The ratio chart of the SPDR S&P Bank ETF over the S&P 500 ETF has traded above a key ascending support since 17 November 2025, which suggests the medium-term outperformance of US banks remains intact, in turn, supporting a recovery on the US Wall Street CFD index at this juncture (see Fig. 3).

The previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was published on 13 January and had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. As the BTC/USD chart shows:

• → shortly after the release, the price surged aggressively to the 14 January peak;
• → it then reversed sharply lower (a sign of a bull trap), creating a bearish outlook — which we highlighted on 21 January;
• → subsequently, it broke through multi-month support and entered an accelerated decline towards the $60k area.

For this reason, today’s US inflation report (16:30, GMT+3) is drawing close attention across multiple markets, as it may have a substantial effect on both the dollar and traders’ appetite for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

Bitcoin’s price swings have formed a descending channel, shown in red. Within this framework:

• → the lower boundary (L) appears to be key support. When the price dipped below it on 6 February, aggressive buyers stepped in, resulting in a candle with a long lower shadow;
• → the QL line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two sections, is acting as resistance — as reflected in price action on 9 February.

The ATR indicator is trending lower, signalling declining volatility, which suggests the market is awaiting important news. Higher inflation is generally seen as a factor that could delay interest rate cuts, strengthen the dollar and bond yields, and weigh on BTC/USD. Conversely, softer inflation would be supportive for cryptocurrencies.

If the CPI release does not produce major surprises, Bitcoin may continue to trade within the broad L–QL range.

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• USD/CAD edges higher but remains bearish in the long term.
• Technical oscillators show early signs of upside appetite while still in negative territory.

USD/CAD is extending its three‑day rebound, climbing back above 1.3600 as broad US dollar strength combines with persistent pressure on the Canadian dollar amid ongoing uncertainty and rising unease surrounding US-Canada trade relations.

If upside momentum continues and price closes above initial resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the November-January pullback at 1.3638, along with the 20‑day simple moving average (SMA) just above at 1.3644, the pair could advance toward a retest of the monthly highs near 1.3709, followed by the 1.3750-1.3811 region, which encapsulates the “death cross” between the 50‑ and 200‑day SMAs.

Despite the latest advance, also reflected in indicators showing tentative upward attempts, momentum signals remain broadly negative. The stochastics are attempting a bullish crossover between the %K and %D lines, the RSI is sloping upward toward the neutral threshold, and the MACD is edging above its red signal line while still below zero. This combination suggests that although bullish attempts are emerging, the broader technical picture remains vulnerable, especially with the pair still trading well below the long-term ascending trendline.

If the bearish pressure resumes, the pair could retreat toward 1.3575, followed by 1.3471, taken from the October lows, and then the seven-month low near 1.3420.

To sum up, downside momentum is easing, but with key resistance levels approaching and indicators still in negative territory, USDCAD’s upside may soon stall.

As the chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, bearish sentiment currently dominates the equity market. Yesterday, the technology index fell by around 2%.

Why Is the Nasdaq 100 Declining?

According to media reports, developments linked to the expansion of AI are weighing on the market:

• → Major technology firms are sharply increasing capital expenditure on infrastructure, yet there is little clarity on when these investments will begin to generate returns. For instance, Google issued bonds this week, including 100-year debt.
• → The impact of AI on traditional business models, particularly companies operating in the software sector.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart

When analysing Nasdaq 100 price action (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) on 2 February, we:

• → identified a resistance zone (highlighted in orange) and marked the key 25,900 resistance level;
• → noted that bears had taken the initiative and suggested they would need to maintain control around the 25,500 area — where the ascending channel had previously been broken.

Since then, bulls managed to break above this zone, but only briefly, testing the 25,900 level. As indicated by the arrow, the move was short-lived and prices soon fell back below, signalling the bulls’ inability to sustain upward momentum.

A sequence of lower highs has allowed a descending trend line (R) to be drawn. If the consolidation that began last evening reflects a temporary balance between supply and demand, a median line can be plotted, with a lower channel boundary beneath it.

Under a continued downward trend scenario, this configuration points to the potential for the Nasdaq 100 to set a fresh low for the year. Whether this outlook materialises will largely depend on US inflation data. The CPI report is due for release today at 16:30 (GMT+3). Traders should be prepared for heightened volatility.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Switzerland’s consumer prices slipped -0.1% mom in January, undershooting expectations for a flat reading. The decline was largely driven by a -0.6% drop in imported product prices, while domestic prices edged up 0.1% on the month. Core CPI, which excludes fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel, rose 0.1%, suggesting limited underlying pressure.

On an annual basis, headline inflation held steady at 0.1% yoy, in line with expectations. Core inflation was unchanged at 0.5%, with domestic product prices also steady at 0.5% from a year earlier. The data point to a subdued price environment, with limited momentum building in domestic costs.

Imported prices remained a key drag, falling -1.5% year-on-year compared with a -1.6% decline previously. The stronger Swiss Franc and softer external price dynamics continue to suppress imported inflation, keeping overall price growth well below levels seen elsewhere in Europe.

Full Swiss CPI release here.