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• The US-Iran ceasefire sent EURUSD to 1.17.
• The dollar will be sensitive to developments in the Washington-Tehran talks.

The US dollar was hit by a wave of selling following reports of a two-week truce between Washington and Tehran. And although Middle Eastern countries continue to report attacks by Iran, and Israel has no intention of halting its strikes on Lebanon, EURUSD recorded its best rally since late January. Investors, driven by FOMO (fear of missing out), briefly pushed the euro above 1.17.

Markets shoot first and ask questions later. The war had led to a rise in oil prices and the US dollar, whilst the EURUSD and US stock indices were steadily falling. The ceasefire turned yesterday’s winners into losers and the underdogs into favourites. The greenback is losing ground as tensions ease. At the same time, the futures market has raised the odds of a Fed rate cut in 2026 from 12% to 44%.

It is unclear whether Donald Trump has resolved the conflict in the Middle East. The differences between the opposing sides have not gone away. Iran claims victory in the conflict, whilst the US says it has achieved and even exceeded its objectives. For now, the markets are trying to work out whose claims are more misleading and are awaiting signals from the direct talks on 10 April.

It is widely known how Donald Trump conducts negotiations. The tactic of threats has not gone away, which could be perceived as an escalation of the geopolitical conflict and could prompt the EURUSD to pull back. Nevertheless, Iran and the US have already taken the first step, and, coupled with falling oil prices, this offers hope that the euro will continue to rise.

The fall in the dollar and US Treasury yields has allowed gold to recover. The precious metal has broken above $4,800 per ounce thanks to renewed hopes of a cut in the federal funds rate and the return of funds previously withdrawn to meet margin requirements on securities.

EUR/USD rose sharply midweek to 1.1675, reaching a four-week high. Pressure on the US dollar came after President Donald Trump postponed the threat of strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure for two weeks. The politician described this as a "bilateral ceasefire" conditional upon the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trump, the US has received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which is being viewed as a working basis for negotiations. The two-week window could be used to reach a resolution. Iran has reportedly agreed to temporarily open the strait, provided that attacks cease. Israel has also supported the ceasefire.

At the same time, macroeconomic data point to rising inflation expectations in the US. In March, these increased, with transport costs in logistics rising markedly.

Investor attention is now focused on the release of March inflation data (CPI), which could clarify the degree of price pressure amid the ongoing conflict.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 1.1700 level. A downward wave to 1.1566 is expected as a local target. Subsequently, a move higher to 1.1717 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and pointing firmly upwards, indicating continued bullish momentum and the potential for the uptrend to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market is forming the structure of the next downward wave to the 1.1566 level. After reaching this level, an increase to 1.1717 is expected, with the potential for the move higher to extend to 1.1730. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing firmly downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

EUR/USD has surged on news of a potential breakthrough in Middle East tensions, with Trump postponing strikes on Iranian infrastructure and a two-week "bilateral ceasefire" taking effect, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's reported 10-point proposal and agreement to temporarily open the strait have provided a significant boost to risk appetite, weighing on the safe-haven dollar. However, rising US inflation expectations and the upcoming CPI release remind markets that domestic price pressures remain a concern. While technical indicators suggest some near-term consolidation or pullback, the pair's direction will ultimately depend on whether diplomatic efforts hold and whether the ceasefire translates into a more lasting de-escalation.

Eurozone PPI fell -0.7% mom and -3.0% yoy in February, in line with expectations, with the decline largely driven by a sharp drop in energy inflation before the Iran War.

The breakdown highlights a mixed picture beneath the headline. Energy prices dropped -2.4% mom, offsetting gains in intermediate goods and capital goods, both up 0.3%, as well as a 0.2% rise in durable consumer goods. Non-durable consumer goods edged lower by -0.2%.

Across the EU, producer prices fell -0.5% mom and -2.7% yoy, with notable declines in (-3.1%), Ireland (-2.6%) and Portugal (-1.8%). The highest increases were observed in Croatia (+3.8%), Finland (+2.7%) and Lithuania (+1.8%).

Full Eurozone PPI release here.

AUD/USD started a fresh increase above 0.6970 and 0.7000. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5850.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a steady increase above 0.7000 against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a rising channel with resistance at 0.6960 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5755 pivot zone.
•  There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at 0.5710 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.6860. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear 0.6900 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a break above a rising channel with resistance at 0.6960. There was a close above 0.7000 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested 0.7080. A high was formed near 0.7084 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase. There was a minor decline below 0.7075.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6859 swing low to the 0.7084 high. The next area of interest could be near 0.6970 and the 50% Fib retracement.

If there is a downside break below 0.6970, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6945 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6895.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.7085. The first major hurdle for the bulls might be 0.7120. An upside break above 0.7120 might send the pair further higher. The next stop is near 0.7200. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.7320.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 0.5675. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.5720 barrier to start the recent rally against the US Dollar.

More importantly, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance at 0.5710. The pair settled above 0.5755 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

It tested 0.5835 and is currently consolidating gains. There was a minor pullback below 0.5820. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now just above 70. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.5835. The next major hurdle is near the 0.5880 pivot level.

A clear move above 0.5880 might even push the pair toward 0.6950. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.7000 zone in the coming days.

On the downside, immediate support is near the 0.5795 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.5678 swing low to the 0.5834 high.

The first key zone for the bulls sits at 0.5755 and the 50% Fib retracement. The next important level is 0.5720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below 0.5720, the pair might slide toward 0.5690. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD into a bearish zone to 0.5650.

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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation surged by 4% over the past 24 hours to $2.45 trillion, making a promising move above the 50-day moving average. Leading the gains were ZEC (+22%), ICP (+13%) and Avalanche (+9.5%); underperforming the market were TRX (-0.2%), BNB (+2.5%) and Monero (+2.8%). News of a two-week ceasefire brought a sigh of relief, sharply boosting demand for risky assets.

The sentiment index stood at 17 at the start of the day on Wednesday. However, significantly higher levels are to be expected unless the situation changes dramatically by the end of the day, as much of the market’s positivity emerged after today’s figures were released.

Bitcoin slipped above $72.7K on positive news from the Middle East, retreating slightly at the time of writing to $71.8K, up 4.8% over the past 24 hours. This consolidation above the 50-day MA and a move above the late-March highs are setting an optimistic tone. The immediate focus remains on the $75K area, near which lies the 61.8% resistance level of the latest downward impulse and two March pivot points

News Background

According to CoinShares, global investments in crypto funds rose by $224 million last week following an outflow the week before. Investments in Bitcoin increased by $107 million, in XRP by $120 million, and in Solana by $35 million. Investments in Ethereum fell by $53 million.

The inflow into XRP was the most significant among all assets and the largest since mid-December 2025.

According to BitInfoChart, the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network has fallen to its lowest level since autumn 2013. The decline in network activity has negatively impacted transaction fees and mining profitability.

Bitcoin’s hash rate, smoothed by a 30-day SMA, fell during the first quarter from 1,066 EH/s to 1,004 EH/s, according to Hashrate Index. The 5.8% drop was due to the decommissioning of outdated equipment.

Bitcoin is vulnerable to risks posed by quantum computers, but the main risk lies not in the technology itself but in the community’s inability to reach consensus, according to Grayscale. Deciding on a course of action carries the risk of protracted disagreements and could take years.

Silver’s breakout above 76.29 resistance today marks a decisive extension of the rebound from 60.97 short term bottom, driven by broad Dollar weakness following the US-Iran ceasefire. The move reflects a classic war premium unwind, with precious metals benefiting as the greenback slides and risk sentiment improves.

The strength of the rally suggests more than just a technical bounce. Last week’s sharp selloff appears to have flushed out weak hands, allowing institutional buyers to take control of price action. The result is a cleaner structure, where upside momentum is no longer constrained by overleveraged positioning.

With Dollar weakness likely to persist in the near term, Silver now has a clear path toward the next key level at 84.21, 38.2% retracement of 121.83 to 60.97. This level represents not just a technical target, but a decision point for the broader trend.

However, the rally will likely unfold within a narrow time window. The current surge is closely tied to the ceasefire euphoria, and momentum is likely to be concentrated within the first 7–10 days of the agreement. As markets approach the final phase of the two-week window, attention will shift back to geopolitical risks.

That raises the risk of a “Day 10” inflection point. If negotiations fail to show tangible progress, traders may begin to price back in war premium ahead of the ceasefire’s expiry. This could trigger a pre-emptive selloff, particularly if Silver has not yet reached its upside targets.

The behavior around 84.21 will be critical. A sustained break would suggest that institutional accumulation is complete and that buyers are willing to hold positions beyond the current macro catalyst. In contrast, rejection near that level could signal distribution, with stronger hands using the rally to offload positions to late entrants. That would drag Silver back to 60-70 structural floor.

In that sense, Silver’s rally is not just about direction—but timing. The market is advancing on improving sentiment, but without concrete geopolitical progress, the same forces driving the move could reverse quickly. For now, the trend is higher, but the clock is already ticking.

• A two-week US-Iran ceasefire was reached, immediately unwinding the "fear trade" that had been building in global markets.
• Oil prices tumbled dramatically, with US Crude (WTI) falling approximately 15%, easing concerns about "War Inflation".
• The ceasefire is viewed as only a tactical pause; traders are cautioned to remain vigilant as geopolitical headlines could quickly turn sentiment.

After weeks of trading on the edge of a precipice, global markets have finally caught a break. In what can only be described as a classic "Trumpian" 11th-hour maneuver, a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran has been reached, just hours before a deadline that threatened to set the Middle East and global energy markets ablaze.

The relief across trading floors this Wednesday morning is palpable. For weeks, we’ve watched the Strait of Hormuz effectively become a no-go zone, choking off 20% of the world’s energy supply and sending volatility into overdrive. But with the announcement of Iran’s “workable 10-point plan,” the "fear trade" is unwinding as quickly as it built up.

Market Reaction: Crude Crumbles, Risk-On Returns

The most dramatic moves, unsurprisingly, are in the energy pits. Oil prices, which had been flirting with disastrous levels, have seen a massive flush-out. U.S. Crude (WTI) futures tumbled roughly 15%, sliding back under the psychological $100 handle to trade around $96.30. Brent Crude followed suit, dropping 13% to the $94.70 mark.

From a technical perspective, this is a massive relief valve for global inflationary pressures. We’ve been discussing the "War Inflation" theme for weeks; this de-escalation provides a much-needed cooling period.

Equities and FX are also seeing a "relief rally":

• Asia-Pacific: The Nikkei jumped 5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 6%, even triggering a brief volatility halt.
• S&P 500 & Europe: Futures are pointing to a gap up, with European STOXX 50 futures leaping over 5%.
• The Dollar Index (DXY): The "safe-haven of choice" during the tumult has been knocked back to 98.83, a one-month low.

Gold (XAU/USD): Interestingly, Gold remains resilient, climbing 2.5% to $4,820. This suggests that while the immediate "shooting war" fears are fading, investors aren't ready to completely abandon hedges just yet and the hopes that inflationary pressure may prove short-lived remains in place for now..

The Outlook: A Two-Week Window of Opportunity

The "Iran 10-point plan" is being viewed as a workable framework for longer-term stability, but we must remain cautious. This is a two-week ceasefire, a tactical pause rather than a permanent peace.

Iran's 10-point plan includes the following terms:

• Commitment to non-aggression
• Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
• Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
• Lifting of all primary sanctions
• Lifting of all secondary sanctions
• Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
• Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
• Paying compensation to Iran
• Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
• Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon

Trump says this plan is "a workable basis."

Part of the ceasefire plan allows Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, per CNN.

A regional official said this money would be used for the reconstruction of Iran.

Source: TruthSocial, X

For the day ahead, keep an eye on:

• Supply Chain Normalization: Markets will be looking for physical confirmation that tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz without incident.
• Dollar Weakness: If the DXY continues to slide, it could provide further tailwinds for the AUD and EUR, which have already seen significant bounces this morning.

Chart of the day - WTI Oil

The H4 chart for WTI illustrates a "liquidation candle," with price plummeting nearly 15% following the US-Iran ceasefire. The vertical drop saw oil slice through the 100-period SMA (purple) and psychological support at $100.00 with ease, signaling a massive shift in sentiment.

Currently, WTI is searching for a floor near the $96.30 mark. The RSI (14) has dipped sharply to 33.5, hovering just above oversold territory, which suggests the initial panic selling may be slowing. However, with price now trading well below the 100 SMA, the immediate bias remains bearish.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: If the slide continues, the 200-period SMA (yellow) near $88.00 and the horizontal support at $90.00 are the next major targets.
• Resistance: Any relief bounce faces a stiff hurdle at the $98.97 (100 SMA) and the previous breakdown point at $100.00.

WTI US Oil Four-Hour Chart, April 8, 2026

Source: TradingView

To conclude, markets have moved from the "brink" to the "bench." The ceasefire buys time, and for now, sentiment is king. Traders should enjoy the relief rally but keep their protective stops tight, geopolitical headlines can still turn the tide in minutes

The US dollar has shifted into a corrective phase following its previous rally, while market participants adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. The weakening of the dollar has already led to a moderate pullback in USD/JPY and USD/CAD from recent highs, reflecting profit-taking and reduced activity ahead of a key event.

An additional factor influencing the market remains geopolitical tensions, which continue to affect global financial flows. Fluctuations in energy prices and persistent escalation risks are limiting the formation of устойчивых trends, increasing the dependence of currency pairs on incoming macroeconomic data.

Today, investor focus will be on the Federal Reserve minutes, which may help clarify the regulator’s stance on the future path of interest rates. The market will assess the tone of policymakers’ comments, particularly the balance between inflation risks and signs of economic slowdown. Depending on the tone, the market may either extend the dollar’s corrective move or revive demand for the US currency.

USD/JPY

Following a test of the key psychological resistance level at 160.00, USD/JPY has formed an “evening star” candlestick pattern. Technical analysis suggests a potential continuation of the downward correction if the pair holds below 159.20. If buyers manage to secure a move above 160.00, a retest of the yearly highs may follow.

Key events for USD/JPY:

• Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): US Mortgage Market Index
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+3): FOMC Minutes
• Today at 21:35 (GMT+3): Speech by Fed’s Christopher Waller

USD/CAD

USD/CAD has formed a “dark cloud cover” pattern after a repeated test of the 1.3950 level. If the pair consolidates below 1.3880, the decline may extend towards 1.3780–1.3800. A break above 1.3970 would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• Today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Canada Leading Economic Index
• Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories
• Today at 18:00 (GMT+3): Canada Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI

The market remains in a corrective and anticipatory phase ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. The current weakening of the dollar may continue if the Fed adopts a softer tone, while more hawkish signals could restore demand for the US currency and limit the extent of the pullback.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

Markets overnight again had to cope with a TACO-like U-turn regarding the conflict with Iran and the impact on the on energy supply affecting the global economy. Pakistan (PM Shehbaz Sarif) proposing a 10-point plan from Iran to the US apparently ‘convinced’ the US not to start a devastating attack on Iranian infrastructure and to agree to a 2-week ceasefire. Demands from both sides as put down in an earlier US-15 point plan and a new Iranian plan suggest that high hurdles have to be overcome. Even so, president Trump accepted the proposal as a workable basis to start negotiations. One of many key points that still have to be resolved/clarified is the framework on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US sees a complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait as part of the ceasefire agreement. Iran from his side mentions that ‘for a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed forces’. How this (and multiple other unresolved topics) will turn out both political and logistically still has to become clear. Even so, for markets the ceasefire trigged a logical Pavlov decompression move. After a modest rise early in US dealings, US yields already drifted gradually lower on rumours that Pakistan was actively working on a proposal. US yields already closed the session lower between 6 bps (2-y) and 1.6 bps (30-y). This morning the easing continues in an extended bull steepening move (2-y minus additionally 6.5 bps, 30-y minus 2.6 bps). At the close of the European markets, tension/fears of an escalation still were riding high with Bund yields closing between 10.8 (5-y) and 6.7 bps (30-y) higher. US equities yesterday closed the session little changed. The EuroStoxx 50 lost 1.05%. Already yesterday in the pre-ceasefire era, the dollar hardly profited with DXY closing well below the 110 barrier (99.86). Idem for EUR/USD (close 1.1595).

This morning’s relief after the ceasefire lifts all/multiple boats in a broad risk-on move. Asian equities jump sharply higher (Nikkei +5.45%, Kospi +7%). Brent oil tumbles form $110+ p/b levels yesterday to currently hovering near $94 p/b. The dollar eases further (DXY 98.75, EUR/USD 1.1685). We also keep a close at the re-evaluation on European interest rate markets. Yesterday, rising inflationary risks pushed expectations for a an April ECB rate hike close to 70% with cumulative 75 bps tightening discounted from the end of the year. To what end will the ceasefire make markets question that the impact of the recent developments already pushed price developments in line with the adverse scenario which they saw creating (pre-emptive) ECB action? In a scenario of oil holding in the $90-$100 range and plenty of political and logistical issues still to be solved, interest rate markets might still keep a scenario of at least two ‘pre-emptive’ ECB rate hikes in a not-that distant future. Given recent modest USD gains considering the level of tension, there is room for EUR/USD to move higher in the 1.14/1.18 ST trading range.

News & Views

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% this morning. Since its February meeting, events in the Middle East materially altered the outlook and balance of risks. The RBNZ didn’t completely update February forecasts for inflation but gave an indication for the short term by raising the prognosis for Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 respectively to 3% (from 2.8%) and 4.2% (from 2.7%). Today’s decision balances the potential benefits of responding pre-emptively to the risk of higher medium-term inflation against the cost of unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery. The Monetary Policy Committee is nevertheless vigilant to any generalized inflationary pressure and stands ready to act to return inflation to its medium-term target. Any signs of significant second-round inflationary effects or increases in medium-term inflation expectations would require decisive and timely increases in the policy rate to re-anchor inflation expectations. For now, the central bank believes that weak demand and spare productive capacity should constrain the degree to which higher costs can be passed on. It eyes the magnitude and duration to the disruption to global supply chains and energy markets and the way they influence price- and wage-setting behavior. The kiwi dollar extends cease-fire gains against USD after the hawkish hold with NZD/USD rising from 0.5730 to 0.5830.

The Reserve Bank of India left its policy change unaltered at 5.25% and kept a neutral stance, retaining flexibility to respond judiciously to incoming information. It is vigilant to upside inflation risks linked to the intensity and duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting damage to energy and other infrastructure. CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected to be at 4.6% with Q1 at 4%; Q2 at 4.4%; Q3 at 5.2%; and Q4 at 4.7%. The RBI has a 4% inflation target with a 2%-6% tolerance band.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6592; (P) 1.6653; (R1) 1.6686; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.6561 minor support suggests that corrective rebound from 1.6125 has already completed at 1.6842, after rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 1.6733)/ Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 1.6125. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, though, break of 1.6842 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.6125 at 1.7053.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7207) holds, even in case of strong rebound.