Sample Category Title

GBP/USD was driven by strong upside momentum on Friday that resulted in the pair closing at the 1.2886 mark, as sluggish US Durable Goods Orders sent the rate for a 57-pip hourly surge.

The Pound opened at 1.2934 this session just below the monthly S1 and the weekly R1. Ths level, however, was not sustainable, as bears managed to push the pair back to the 1.2880 area by early Monday.

Technical indicators support the rate edging lower. A significant level of support is set by the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA near 1.2860. As no strong market movers are expected today, the rate should remain between 1.2860/1.2940.

The US Dollar was heading towards the 109.08 mark against the Yen prior to being pushed down by sluggish US Durable Goods Orders. The given move resulted in the rate dashing through the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMAs down to 109.10.

Subsequently, the rate has remained in a relatively stable level between the weekly PP and the monthly S1 in 109.28/108.82.

It is likely that the Greenback tries to appreciate once again towards the 200-hour SMA—a level that should be today's upside limit. On the other hand, the aforementioned monthly S1 together with the weekly S1 circa 108.80 is expected to limit losses for Dollar bulls.

If one had his positions set right, a trader could have cashed in double from the Jackson Hole event in regards to the yellow metal's price.

As soon as the central bankers opened their mouths and started spilling information about global monetary policy in the future, the commodity price started bouncing in a range from 1,276 to 1,295 just during the first hour.

Such move was not initially expected, as it is not consistent with the theory of a triangle pattern, which was active before the event.

However, the end result is a surge, which seems to be unopposed heading once more to reach above the 1,300 mark.

The Commerce Department showed that the US Durable Goods fell 6.8% in July amid weaker demand for commercial jets, while its Core measure marked a better-than-expected gain of 0.5% in the same period.

The US Durable Goods reports on early Friday caused a modest market reaction additionally muted ahead of two economic leaders’ speeches. However, while the Fed Chair Janet Yellen avoided commenting the US Central Bank’s monetary policy, the Greenback weakened against the Euro by 66 pips or 0.56%. Moreover, the EUR/USD jumped again by 48 base points to consolidate near the 1.1927 level following Mr. Draghi, as the markets focused on positive sides of his speech, ignoring notice on growing threats of trade protectionism.

The Friday report showed that German business sentiment eased slightly in August after reaching three highest levels in a row, resulting in a modest increase in the EUR/JPY currency pair. The Euro gained 6 base points or 0.05% to the 129.27 mark and continued to grow steadily.

The Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research reported that its Business Climate Index edged lower to 115.9 in the reported month, down from the 116.0 registered previously. The German strong economic expansion remained in line with firm GDP growth in the Euro Area. However, the country's businesses were less optimistic about the current situation, suggesting that the economic growth in the largest EU country could reach its peak in the near future.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1931

Friday's break through 1.1830 static resistance shows, that the prolonged consolidation below 1.1909 is already over and the general uptrend has been renewed, heading towards 1.2040, en route to 1.2160 area. Initial intraday support lies at 1.1909 and crucial on the downside is 1.1830.

USD/JPY

Current level - 109.09

The outlook here remains bearish, for a slide towards 108.60, en route to 108.10 low. Minor intraday resistance lies at 109.50.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2893

The low at 1.2773 signals a reversal of the whole downtrend from 1.3260 and the bias is already positive above 1.2846, for a break through 1.2930, towards 1.3050 zone.

Gold staged a strong bounce from the key 1280.00 level last Friday. Near-term upside momentum has been maintained as RSI rose above 50 into bullish territory on the 4-hour chart. Looking back since mid-August, gold has been neutral.

If the top of the range at the key psychological level of 1300.00 can be broken, a clear and sustained move above this resistance would open the way to the next major high at 1337.24 (November 2016 peak).

Until then, consolidation between the range-low of 1280.00 and 1300.00 is expected in the short-term. Gold has failed to record a daily close above 1300.00 since November 4, 2016.

A break below 1280.00 would indicate that the upside risk has diminished. The next support level is expected at 1267.25 which prices reached on August 15 and it was also approached a few times. From here there is scope to reach 1251.49 (August 8 low). This is seen as an important level since it is close to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1204.79 to 1300.77. A break of this level would increase downside risk and change the current uptrend from 1204.79 on the 4-hour chart.

Overall, there are no clear signals that would indicate a shift from the current neutral phase. The level at the lower end of the range at 1280.00 is expected to offer solid support and is unlikely to yield so easily in the near-term, while 1300.00 remains a strong resistance level.

EURUSD hit a fresh 2 1/2 -year high of 1.1959 today. The pair has shifted to bullish from neutral after breaking out of a 3-week consolidation phase between 1.1661 and 1.1900.

What was previously the top of the range and a strong resistance level, the key 1.1900 level is now expected to act as support. There is scope to target the next key round-figure at 1.2000.

But technical studies show that the market is close to being overextended since RSI is approaching 70 (overbought level), suggesting that upside momentum is fading. MACD has turned back down. A correction to the downside cannot be ruled out.

A break below the range-low of 1.1661 would open the way for a more significant decline towards 1.1471, which was tested as both support and resistance recently. A move back below 1.1312 would indicate that the upside bias has weakened since this would result in a more than 50% retracement of the uptrend from 1.0820 to 1.1959. A deeper correction would target major levels at 1.1300 and 1.1100.

Sustained trading above 1.1900 would increase the odds for further upside. A rise above 1.2000 would open the way towards 1.2200.

The bullish market structure in the medium-term remains intact and the pair continues to rise within an ascending channel. The crossover of the 50-day above the 200-day moving average on May 23 highlights the bullish picture.

As Asian trading was about to end for the day, the euro managed to hold above the two and a-half-year high, despite being under pressure in early trades. Euro/dollar was last trading at 1.1926, after reaching 1.1940 on Friday, levels last recorded in January 2015. Oil prices surged in early trading but gave up on some of the gains as the Asian session was coming to a close.

The euro came under some pressure during the Asian session, but managed to stay above the $1.19 mark it breached on Friday following European Central Bank President Draghi’s speech. While Mr. Draghi followed his counterpart, Janet Yellen in keeping their lips tight on the monetary policy outlook and focus on the financial regulation instead, the fact that he failed to talk down the single currency down gave euro-bulls more reason for going long. Forex markets welcomed that the ECB Head was neither dovish nor hawkish. This implies critical months ahead as new data gets released and assessed for potential clues of central banks’ moves.

The euro was trading at $1.1926 ahead of the European open, just shy of Friday’s intra-day high of $1.1940. Meanwhile, the dollar extended its losses following Friday’s plunge, with the greenback last trading at 109.09 yen.

The yen gained against the US currency despite the dovish speech by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He pledged that the very accommodative monetary policy would continue “for some time” as the BOJ is far from its inflation target. Mr. Kuroda also made a parallel between the Japanese and US economy, assessing the latter is in a much better situation. This comes as a contrast to the other two key central bankers that kept very silent on their monetary policy stance.

While UK markets are closed for business due to a bank holiday, the UK government is positioning itself for the next round of Brexit talks. David Davis, Brexit secretary, will be in Brussels today calling for “flexibility and imagination” on both sides to make further progress in this process. The latest hold came on discussions around the Northern Ireland border. The pound was under pressure following a spike in Friday’s trading. Pound/dollar was trading at 1.2895 ahead of the Asian close.

In the wake of the weakness in the US currency, both the aussie and kiwi rose and were last trading at $0.7939 and $0.7237, respectively.

Oil prices had a mixed performance ahead of the European session after surging in early trades. As a result of disrupted supply due to Hurricane Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico, WTI surged to $48.20 a barrel and Brent was at $52.84. However, later WTI declined and last traded at $47.63 a barrel, while Brent was still up at $52.42. Different news channels have reported that around 20% of production in the heart of US oil fields has been shut-down, but that the impact on refineries is much bigger and it make take longer for them to come back online. This could create a glut of unrefined crude oil that would weigh on price.

Gold was up on the day and was testing the $1,300 an ounce mark in the wake of the dollar weakness. The precious metal was last trading at $1,297.89.

The EURUSD pair has moved to a new 2017 trading high, hitting 1.1960 during the Asian trading session, as investors continue to react to ECB President Mario Draghi's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Mario Draghi's failure to address the recent appreciation of the single currency at Jackson Hole, caused the euro to rise sharply. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen offered no indication the FED will raise rates in the upcoming September meeting, causing the U.S dollar to fall.

The EURUSD pair has now pulled back towards the 1.1920 region, finding support from the August 2nd price high, at 1.1910.

Intraday technical resistance for the EURUSD is found at the 1.1960, the psychological 1.2000 level, and the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the all-time EURUSD price high, to price low, at 1.2030.

Key intraday technical support for the EURUSD is found at the former 2017 price high, at 1.1910, the daily pivot point, at 1.1879, and the key monthly time frame, 50 period moving average, at 1.1860.