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EUR/CHF recovery bounce has stalled below downtrend resistance located at 1.1407. Hourly support is located at 1.1260 (04/08/2017 low). Expected to show further consolidation.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high) has been broken. Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP's buying pressures continues. Hourly resistance lies at 0.9415 (10/07/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9189 (24/08/2017 low). Downside risks are nonetheless important.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/USD – 1.1915

EUR/USD:   Wave (c) of 2 ended at 1.3993 and wave 3 of III has commenced for weakness to 1.0411 (1.236 of wave 1), then 1.0000.

Friday’s rally above recent high at 1.1910 confirms our bullish view that recent upmove has resumed and upside bias remains for the rise from 1.0340 low (wave 3 trough) to extend gain to 1.2000-10, break there would encourage for further gain in wave 4 to 1.2100, having said that, as this move is viewed as the final leg of recent wave 4, reckon upside would be limited and price should falter well below 1.2220-30, bring retreat later. 

Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145. The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II ended at 1.4940, hence wave III is now in progress with a diagonal wave 1 ended at 1.2042, the breach of previous support at 1.1876 (wave I trough) adds credence to our view that the wave 2 has ended at 1.3993, wave 3 has commenced for further weakness to 1.0411, then towards 1.0000.

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.1840-50 and bring such a rise to aforesaid upside target. Below previous resistance at 1.1828 would bring test of 1.1773 minor support (Friday’s low) but a daily close below there is needed to defer and bring test of 1.1740, break there would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed instead, risk weakness towards support at 1.1662, only break there would provide confirmation, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.1613 support first.

Recommendation: Buy at 1.1850 for 1.2050 with stop below 1.1750

Euro's long-term uptrend started from 0.8228 (26 Oct 2000) with an impulsive structure. The rise from 0.8228 to 0.9593 (5 Jan 2001) is labeled as wave I, the retreat to 0.8352 (6 Jul 2001) is wave II and the rally to 1.3670 (31 Dec 2004) is wave III. Wave IV from there ended at 1.1640 (15 Nov 2005), the subsequent upmove to 1.6040 (July 15, 2008) is treated as wave V, the major selloff from the record high of 1.6040 to 1.2329 (October 27, 2008) signals a reversal has taken place with (I) leg ended at 1.2329 and once (II) ended at 1.5145, wave (III) itself is an extended move with I: 1.1876 and complex wave II ended at 1.4902, wave III has commenced with wave 1 and 2 ended at 1.2042 and 1.3993 respectively, wave 3 of III is now unfolding for weakness towards parity.

AUD/USD has broken downtrend channel. Hourly support can be found at 0.7786 (18/07/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.8066 (27/07/2017 high). Expected to further consolidate.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD selling continues. Hourly support is given at a distance at 1.2414 (27/07/2017 low) while resistance is now given at a distance at 1.2778 (15/08/2017 low). Expected to show continued short-term bearish move.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low) before bouncing back. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head further lower.

USD/CHF is heading lower. Higher resistance is given at 0.9771 (15/06/2017 high). Hourly support at 0.9584 (08/11/2017 low) has been broken. Expected to show growing continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY has bounced strongly off support. The pair is likely to retest towards former support at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low) . Expected to show another leg lower.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD bearish momentum has bounced around support given at 1.2774 (24/08/2017 high). Hourly resistance is given at 1.3031 (11/08/2017 high).Expected to show short-term bullish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD short-term bullish pressures are increasing. The pair has broken hourly resistance at 1.1910 (02/08/2017 high) while hourly support lies at 1.1662 (17/08/2017 low). Expected to show increasing bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance holding at 1.1871 (24/08/2015 high) has been broken while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

USD/JPY - 109.15

USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.

Although the greenback fell briefly to 108.60, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 108.83 and the subsequent recovery suggest consolidation would be seen and another bounce to 109.85 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 110.35-40 and renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 110.95, bring another selloff later. Below 108.60 would bring retest of 108.13 (this year’s low) but break there is needed to extend early decline to 107.50, then 107.00, having said that, reckon 106.50-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 99.01-118.66) would limit downside and price should stay above 105.00 psychological level. 

Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 109.85 and 110.30-35 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 110.95 and bring another decline. Above 111.70-75 would defer and suggest the fall from 114.50 has formed a temporary low instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 112.00, then test of resistance at 112.20 , however, still reckon upside would be limited to 112.85-90 and price should falter below resistance at 113.58, bring another selloff later.

Recommendation: Sell again at 110.90 for 108.90 with stop above 111.90.

On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.