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Macron put a final stamp on his electoral victory on Sunday by claiming a combined majority with his coalition partner. The US dollar will be in focus in the week ahead as nine Fed speakers are set to take the podium. CFTC positioning showed euro net longs at the most extreme since 2007. 3 new charts backing our existing EURUSD Premium trade +a detailed note on the OIS-Fed divergence are have been posted.

Macron with ally Mouvement Democrate are projected to win 355 to 356 out of 577 seats in French parliament with most of the votes counted. Alone, it also looks like his La Republique party will win a bare majority with 291 seats. In the past week Macron has made increasingly sweeping promises to reform France and unleash innovation. He certainly has the mandate to do it and any early successes are likely to underpin the euro.

The US dollar faces a volatile week ahead (and summer) as markets attempt to gauge exactly where the Fed stands. Dudley kicks off a week of 9 speakers with an appearance at 1200 GMT.

What makes it especially intriguing were late-Friday comments from Kashkari and Kaplan. Kashkari was the lone dissenter told a newswire other members shared his views but weren't quite ready to take a stand. Kaplan is seen as more of a hawk but said he will be “very cautious” about supporting a hike.

The comments from the pair of policymakers are more in line with the market's stance than what Yellen offered in her presser. The dollar could be heavily swayed if others highlight the same kind of aversion towards hiking before inflation and growth data accelerate.

CFTC Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +.

EUR +79K vs +74K prior GBP -39K vs -37K prior JPY -51K vs -55K prior CHF -14K vs -17K prior CAD -88K vs -94K prior AUD 11K vs 0K prior NZD +1K vs -2K prior

Euro net longs hit the most since 2007 as enthusiasm shaping buy-the-dips approach. EUR/USD was sold on Wed/Thurs after the FOMC decision but it's already recovered half the decline.

GBP traders await Monday's press conference from the first day of UK-EU talks at 17:230, followed by BoE's Carney Mansion House speech on Tuesday for his view on the biggest dissent in 6 years.

We also emphasize how vulnerable that CAD position suddenly looks. Few of those specs were anticipating a hawkish turn from the BOC last week and a big rethink may have only just begun.

EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1295 last week but retreated since then. It's holding above 1.1109 support so far. Thus, initial bias remains neutral this week first, with focus on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

In the long term picture, the case for completion of down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high), and long term bottoming at 1.0339, is starting to build up. Decisive break of 1.1298 will bring rise back to 1.2042 as first resistance. And in that case, we should at least see rally back to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516.

USD/JPY rebounded strongly after edging lower to 108.81. The break of 110.80 resistance argues that fall from 114.36 has completed already. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for near term channel resistance (now at 113.06). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. Nonetheless, break of 108.81 will still extend the fall from 118.65 through 108.12 low before completion.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD stayed in consolidation above 1.2633 temporary low last week. Upside of recovery is limited well below 1.2977 resistance so far. We're still favoring the bearish case. That is, consolidation pattern from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3047 already. Break of 1.2614 resistance turned support should confirm our bearish view and target a test on 1.1946 low next. However, break of 1.2977 will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3047 and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. Price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a consolidation pattern, which could have completed after hitting 55 week EMA. Break of 1.1946 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.5016 to 1.1946 from 1.3047 at 1.1150 next. In case the consolidation from 1.1946 extends, outlook will stay remain bearish as long as 1.3444 resistance holds.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532.

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.9613 extended higher last week but it stays below 0.9807 resistance so far. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further decline is still expected as long as 0.9807 holds. Below 0.9613 will extend the whole fall from 1.0342 to 0.9548 support and below. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9807 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

AUD/USD's reaches as high as 0.7635 last week as the rebound from 0.7328 extended. Further rally is expected this week as long as 0.7523 support holds. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

USD/CAD's sharp fall last week and break of 1.3222 support affirmed our bearish view. That is, corrective rise from 1.2460 has completed at 1.3793 already. With a temporary low in place at 1.3164, initial bias is neutral this week first. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3387 support turned resistance and bring another decline. Break of 1.3164 will target 1.2968 cluster support, 61.8% retracement of 1.2460 to 1.3793 at 1.2969.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and has completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should now indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. In that case, USD/CAD should decline through 1.2460 support to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

EUR/AUD's pull back from 1.5226 extended lower last week and broke 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. It's pressing 1.4669 support. At this point, we're expecting strong support around 1.4669, near term 55 days EMA at 1.4685, to contain downside and bring rebound. Break of 1.4897 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.5226 high first. However, sustained break of 1.4669 will argue that rise from 1.3642 is completed and bring deeper pull back to 1.4309 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We'll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, sustained trading below 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8865 last week but failed to sustain above 0.8851 resistance and retreated. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. At hits point, while consolidation from 0.8865 might extend, we'd still expect strong support from 0.8639 to contain downside and bring rise resumption. Decisive break of 0.8851 resistance will pave the way to retest 0.9304 high. However, break of 0.8639 support will now indicate near term topping and bring deeper pull back 0.8529 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. The leg from 0.9304 should have completed after testing 0.8332 structural support. But it's too early to say that larger rise from 0.6935 is resuming. Rejection from 0.9304 will extend the consolidation with another falling leg. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9304 will target 0.9799 (2008 high). In case of another decline, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 (2008 high) is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935 (2015 low). Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the correction from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

EUR/JPY dipped to 122.39 but drew support from 55 day EMA and rebounded. Initial bias stays mildly on the upside this week for 125.80/126.09 resistance zone. Decisive break of 126.09 will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. In case of another fall as consolidation from 125.80 extends, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

In the long term picture, medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. We're not seeing any sign of an established long term trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong support at 94.11 in case of another fall. Also, there could be strong resistance at 149.76 in case of a medium term rise.