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'Brexit will be a litmus test of the future of international cooperation.' - Marc Carney, Bank of England

On Thursday, the Bank of England Governor Marc Carney delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance in Washington. In his speech, Carney said that financial regulations implemented after the global financial crisis should be able to transform in accordance with unexpected changes. He also stated that the Bank of England would stick to a 'dynamic' approach towards financial regulations, ensuring the global financial system's stability. Meanwhile, in the US, Donald Trump started the process of creating new financial regulations, arguing that financial restrictions are hampering economic growth. Carney also claimed the global financial system was at a 'fork in the road', providing boost to mutual suspicion between regulators. In addition, he highlighted that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union would be a test for cooperation between financial regulators. The BoE Governor said that the Financial Stability Board was working on a revamp of the current financial regulations since the financial crisis, stressing that the FSB do not have the authority to force countries to act in accordance with its view. Back in January, the Congressman Patrick McHenry urged the Fed Chair Janet Yellen to stop cooperating with the FSB, claiming that the FSB's rules run counter to the US interests.

'They have come down from really high levels, but these are still very good, positive readings.' - Michael Trebing, Philadelphia Federal Reserve

US manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region slowed markedly in April, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported its Manufacturing Index dropped to 22.0 in the reported month, following March's reading of 32.8 and falling behind analysts' expectations for a decrease to 25.6 points. Analysts stated that business optimism prompted by Donald Trump's win in the presidential election started to fade, putting downward pressure on business activity. Thursday's data also showed the New Orders Index fell to 27.4 from 38.6 points posted in March, the highest since December 1987. Meanwhile, the six-month business outlook declined to 45.4 from 59.5 points registered in March, the strongest since August 2014. The Price Index dropped to 33.7 from 40.7 points posted in March, the highest since May 2011. On the positive side, the Employment Index rose to 19.9, the strongest since May 2011. Manufacturers also said that they would increase capital spending this year due to expected higher sales. Furthermore, 36.7 of the respondents said that capital spending would take place in the first half of the year. Other data release on Thursday showed initial jobless claims climbed 10,000 to 244,000 last week.

'Both Le Pen and Melenchon represent a risk for markets, but Melenchon would be more disruptive for the French economy than Le Pen.' – Frederic Leroux, Carmignac Gestion (based on Bloomberg)

Pair's Outlook

On Friday morning the common European currency against the US Dollar traded once more below the weekly R2, which is located at the 1.0729 level. The reason for that is the fact that the resistance put up by the weekly R3 at 1.0780 held its ground on Thursday. It is most likely that large fluctuations in the currency pair would not occur during today's trading session, as the French presidential elections will be held on Sunday. These elections are the main focus now for Euro traders, and the results are sure to cause a fundamental shift in the currency pricing.

Traders' Sentiment

SWFX traders remain bearish, as 54% of open positions are short. In addition, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.

'Rising global inflation should have little impact on GBP, we think, since the BoE is not expected to change policy anytime soon.' – Morgan Stanley (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook

A failure to edge lower on Thursday suggested that the Cable has entered a period of consolidation and is likely to remain within its current trading range today, namely between 1.2750 and 1.29. From a broad technical perspective, another rally is unlikely, due to the weekly R3 and the upper Bollinger band forming resistance just above today's opening price, while the nearest support rests only at 1.2743, represented by the monthly R1. Furthermore, the GBP/USD pair appears to be gravitating towards the 1.28 mark, which also implies another leg down today is more probable. Meanwhile, technical indicators are giving mixed signals in the daily timeframe.

Traders' Sentiment

For the fourth day in a row the bull and the bear ratio remains equal to one. At the same time, the share of buy orders surged from 50 to 57%.

'It is too early to expect a sustained rebound and USD is more likely to trade sideways between 108.20 and 109.80 for now even though the immediate bias is for a probe higher towards the top of the expected consolidation range at 109.80.' – UOB Group (based on FXStreet)

Pair's Outlook

The Buck strengthened on Thursday, adding just under 50 pips against the Yen, thus, prolonging the descending channel pattern. The immediate resistance was also pierced, which now turned into supports, bolstering the channel's lower border. According to daily technical indicators, the USD/JPY pair risks experiencing another leg down and could retest the channel's support line. On the other hand, sufficient demand around the 109.00 mark could help the Greenback recover further, but with the 110.00 expected to be the intraday ceiling.

Traders' Sentiment

Bullish traders' sentiment returned to its Wednesday's level of 72%, compared to 74% on Thursday. The portion of orders to acquire the Buck added 8%points. The orders now take up 65% of the market.

'I would expect investors to stay on the fence... they would likely be market-watching rather than market-trading ahead of the French elections on Sunday, especially when there is no clarity.' – Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook

During the early hours of Friday's trading session the yellow metal continued to trade above the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,278.73 level. The bullion has lost its momentum due to the fact that the markets are expecting the results of the French presidential election on Sunday. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, a medium term ascending channel's lower trend line had closed in on the commodity price from the downside. The trend line was located at the 1,276.95 level on Friday.

Traders' Sentiment

Traders are shorting the metal, as 57% of open positions are short. However, 64% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.

Cable is trading in narrowing consolidation under fresh high at 1.2904, with pullback being so far contained 1.2770 (lows of past two days).

Strong bullish sentiment after Tuesday’s surge remains firmly in play and favors further upside, however, extended easing cannot be ruled out as slow stochastic is reversing from overbought territory on daily chart.

Next significant support at 1.2755 (Fibo 38.2% of Tuesday’s rally) should ideally contain, but scenario for deeper dips towards 1.2709 and 1.2663 (50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively) remains in play.

Weaker than expected UK Retail sales (-1.8% m/m in March vs -0.3% forecast at +1.7% in Feb) may drag the pair lower.

Res: 1.2833, 1.2859, 1.2904, 1.2950
Sup: 1.2770, 1.2755, 1.2709, 1.2663

USD/CHF - 0.9977

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9955

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9967

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0004

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9978

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback rebounded after holding above yesterday’s low at 0.9941, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and test of previous support at 1.0008 (now resistance) cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal low is formed and bring retracement of recent decline from 1.0108 to 10030 but resistance at 1.0067 should remain intact.

On the downside, below said support at 0.9941 would extend recent decline to 0.9935-38 (50% projection of 1.0067-0.9955 measuring from 0.9992) and then 0.9926 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9813-1.0108) but reckon 0.9900-05 (1.618 times projection of 1.0108-1.0008 measuring from 1.0067) would hold, bring rebound later. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.

GBP/USD - 1.2827

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2814

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2817

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2810

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2711

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Cable has remained confined within familiar range and further sideways trading is in store, however, downside should be limited to 1.2755-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and reckon 1.2700-10 would hold, bring another rally, break of 1.2755069 would signal the pullback from 1.2906 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.2920-30 (2 times extension of 1.2365-1.2575 measuring from 1.2500), then 1.2950 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2990-00 (1.236 times projection of 1.2109-1.2616 measuring from 1.2365 and psychological resistance). 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on subsequent pullback as downside should be limited to 1.2710 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906), bring another rise. Below 1.2700 would defer and signal top has been formed, risk correction to 1.2660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and price should stay well above 1.2608-16 (previous resistance now support).

The first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday, April 23rd. The market consensus for the first-round of the election is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen will both capture enough votes to proceed to the second round, but this is very much still a four-horse race.

Recent polls have shown there is still the possibility that the far-left wing Mélenchon could be a contender and make it into the final two, though vastly different from Le Pen, his policies would be likely to have a similar result to Le Pen with the markets seeing rallies of safe havens (such as gold, the yen and the Swiss franc), with lower European stocks and a falling Euro.

The far-right Le Pen looks set to make the second round, the markets will be keeping any eye out for any possible increase of more than her expected share of vote, this would likely lead to some worry within the markets which are likely to be spooked by the possibility of a Le Pen presidency.

The independent centrist candidate Macron is in favour of free trade and the integrity of the EU. HIs measures aim to change the country’s long-standing bureaucracy and excessive government control to revive the sluggish economic performance. At the moment, Macron or his compatriot Fillion are the best outcome for the Euro and the single market.

Non-voting share and undecided voters are likely to play decisive roles in this election. The IFOP polls showed there are about 31% non-voting and 28% undecided voters. We are a long way from the finish line but the future fate of France and to some extent the Euro itself will be a little closer after Sundays first round of the election.