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The CAC 40 is showing little movement on Wednesday, as the index is trading at 5,115.00. On the release front, there are no Eurozone or US events on the schedule. President Donald Trump will conduct an interview with the Fox Business Network, and will discuss health care, tax reform, and the crisis in Syria and North Korea. On Friday, France will publish Final CPI. The markets are forecasting a strong gain of 0.6 percent.

The CAC has enjoyed a strong run in the first quarter of 2017, gaining 4.7 percent. European stock markets have benefited from the eurozone economy, which has recorded higher growth and inflation levels. With economic conditions improving, investor confidence levels have followed suit and posted strong numbers in Q1. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence climbed to 23.9 points in April, pointing to strong optimism among investors and analysts. German ZEW Economic Sentiment, which surveys the mood of German investors, sparkled in April, jumping to 19.5 points, well above the forecast of 13.2 points. This marked the strongest reading since August 2015.

European stock markets are steady on Wednesday, as investors remain cautious about geopolitical tensions, particularly in Syria and North Korea. The US bombed a Syrian military base last week, in response to a chemical attack by Syrian warplanes. Russia has strongly condemned the US move, chilling relations even further between the US and Russia. President Trump has also sent warships to the Korea peninsula, in a show of strength against North Korea, which continues to test ballistic missiles in defiance of the international community. If tensions escalate on either of these fronts, stock markets could lose ground.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen provided insights into the Fed mindset. She said that with the economy close to full employment and 2 percent inflation, Fed policymakers were looking to reduce the support that the central bank was providing the economy. The minutes of the March meeting indicated that the Fed plans to trim the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, which has ballooned as a result of the huge asset-purchase program which started in 2008. The Fed plans to raise rates twice more in 2o17, with the next rate expected in June. Yellen emphasized that the Fed's policy stance is neutral, as interest rate increases will be gradual, given that the economy is growing at a moderate pace.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0578; (P) 1.0604 (R1) 1.0630; More....

EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0569 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 1.0688 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is likely finished after being rejected by 55 week EMA. And, the larger down trend is ready to resume. Below 1.0569 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0494 support first. Break will confirm this bearish case and send EUR/USD through 1.0339 to 100% projection of 1.1298 to 1.0339 from 1.0905 at 0.9946. On the upside, however, break of 1.0688 resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2429; (P) 1.2462; (R1) 1.2523; More...

GBP/USD's breach of 1.2505 resistance argues that pull back from 1.2614 has completed at 1.2365 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2614 resistance first. Break there will resume whole rise from 1.2108 and target 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.2871. But overall, price actions from 1.1946 low are viewed as a consolidation pattern. We'd expect strong resistance around 55 week EMA (now at 1.3015) to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. But for now, further rise will be favored in near term as long as 1.2365 support holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0054; (P) 1.0074; (R1) 1.0092; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation below 1.0107 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 1.0342 should have finished with three waves down to 0.9812. Hence, downside of retreat should be contained by 0.9980 support and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0107 will target 1.0169 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and target 1.0342 key resistance next. However, below 0.9980 will dampen this bullish case and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9812 low.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintain that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the cross. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 to 0.9812 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.15; (P) 110.04; (R1) 110.49; More....

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the fall from 118.65 is still in progress. Next target will be 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. At this point, there is no clear indication of reversal yet and it's staying comfortably inside a falling channel. Break of 108.81 will target 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and possibly below. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 111.57 resistance is needed to be the first sign of reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.15) will indicate that the second leg from 98.97 has completed at 118.65. And in that case, USD/JPY would start the third leg down through 98.97 low to 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. On the upside, break of 115.49 resistance should resume the rise from 98.97 for a test on 125.85 high.

USD/CHF - 1.0067

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0000, Target: 1.0100, Stop: 0.9965

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0000, Target: 1.0100, Stop: 0.9965

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s retreat after rising to 1.0108 on Monday has retained our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside risk is for pullback to 1.0050, then towards support at 1.0026, however, reckon 0.9995 support would contain weakness and bring another rise later, above indicated resistance at 1.0108-09 would extend recent upmove from 0.9813 towards 1.0140-45 but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond another previous resistance at 1.0171, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on subsequent pullback as support at 0.9995 should limit downside. Below 0.9970 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9831-1.0108) would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction to support at 0.9948. 

GBP/USD - 1.2493

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s rally, suggesting low has been formed at 1.2365 on Monday and near term upside risk remains for the rebound from there to extend gain to 1.2520-30, however, break there is needed to add credence to this view and bring further rise towards resistance at 1.2559 but near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there, bring retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 1.2445-50 would suggest an intra-day top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 1.2420, break there would confirm and bring further fall to 1.12400-05 which is likely to hold on first testing.

EUR/USD - 1.0600

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0665, Target: 1.0565, Stop: 1.0700

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0665, Target: 1.0565, Stop: 1.0700

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency recovered again after finding support at 1.0595 earlier today, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and initial upside risk remains for the rebound from 1.0570 low to extend gain to 1.0630, then 1.0650, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0667 resistance (Friday’s high) and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.0595 would bring retest of Monday’s low at 1.0570, break there would extend the decline from 1.0906 to 1.0550-55 (50% projection of 1.0906-1.0635 measuring from 1.0689), then 1.0525-30.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on further recovery as 1.0667 resistance should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.0667 would abort and suggest low is formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.0689, then 1.0702.

USD/JPY - 109.55

Original strategy  :

Sell at 110.30, Target: 109.30, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 110.30, Target: 109.30, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s selloff below support at 110.11 on active cross-buying in yen in part due to risk aversion suggests recent entire decline 118.66 top is still in progress, hence downside bias remains for recent decline to extend weakness to 109.30-35, then towards 109.00-05 (123.6 times projection of 112.20-110.13 measuring from 111.58), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 108.85 (61.8% projection of 115.51-110.11 measuring from 112.20) and reckon 108.40-50 (100% projection of 118.66-111.55 measuring from 115.51) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 110.30-40 should cap upside and bring another decline. Above 110.70-75 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 111.00-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 111.58.

The dollar index plunged around 0.31% on Tuesday, falling from the psychological resistance level at 101.00 and hitting a 2-day low of 100.49. The downtrend was held above the support line at 100.50. This morning during the European session, the dollar index saw a rebound.

USD/CAD has fallen 0.8% in past one week. The bulls failed to gain the significant psychological level at 1.3400.

The USD/CAD downtrend was held above the near term major support line at 1.3300 since Tuesday April 12, as the range between 1.3280 - 1.3300 is the near term major support zone, where there is stronger support.

On the 4-hourly chart, the price has been moving from the lower band to the middle band by the Bollinger Band indicator, suggesting the bearish momentum has been waning.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision and monetary policies this afternoon at 15:00 BST. It will be followed by the BoC's press conference at 16:15 BST. Be aware that the data and the press conference will likely affect the strength of CAD and CAD crosses.

Although Canadian economy is improving, however, the US economic outlook is still uncertain under Trump's administration. The BoC is likely to keep rates on hold for the near future.

Keep a close eye on the US retail sales and CPI figures (Mar), to be released at 13:30 BST this Friday April 14. It will likely cause volatility for USD and USD crosses.

The resistance level is at 1.3330, followed by 1.3340 and 1.3355.
The support line is at 1.3315, followed by 1.3300 and 1.3280.