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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4066; (P) 1.4118; (R1) 1.4156; More...

EUR/AUD is staying in range of 1.3872/4309 and intraday bias remains neutral. We're holding on to the view of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. Another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 minor support holds. Break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Break should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8508; (P) 0.8537; (R1) 0.8564; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as it's bounded in tight range between 0.8483/8604. There is no change in the view that price actions from 0.8303 are a consolidation pattern. And, it's the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. Below 0.8430 will target 0.8402. Break of 0.8402 will resume the fall from 0.9304 to 0.8116/20 cluster support, where the correction should end. On the upside, above 0.8604 minor resistance will bring another recovery before fall from 0.9304 resumes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is likely ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0693; (P) 1.0709; (R1) 1.0731; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in range above 1.0668 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.0734 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is in favor. Below 1.0668 will target 1.0620/29 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume the larger fall from 1.1198. Nonetheless, break of 1.0734 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0823 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7525; (P) 0.7551; (R1) 0.7569; More...

AUD/USD drops to as low as 0.7516 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.7490 support. Decisive break of 0.7490 will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support. On the upside, above 0.7586 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. And, break of 0.7678 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and could extend the rise fro 0.7158 through 0.7748 resistance.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8165) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3390; (P) 1.3420; (R1) 1.3442; More....

With 1.3373 minor support intact, further rise is mildly in favor in USD/CAD. Break of 1.3534 resistance will extend whole rise from 1.2698 to 1.3598 resistance. On the downside, below 1.3373 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and could extend the correction from 1.3534 with another fall. But we'd expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. Overall, medium term rebound form 1.2460 is still expected to extend through 1.3598.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0619; (P) 1.0652 (R1) 1.0675; More....

EUR/USD is staying above 1.0628 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another recovery cannot be ruled out. But upside should be limited by 1.0772 resistance and bring fall resumption. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed at 1.0905. And more importantly, larger down trend is probably resuming. Below 1.0635 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0494. Break will confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low. However, above 1.0772 will delay this bearish case and bring another rise back to 1.0905 first.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2444; (P) 1.2474; (R1) 1.2499; More...

GBP/USD is still stuck in tight range inside 1.2376/2614 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Overall outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern pattern. On the downside, break of 1.2376 will turn bias to the downside for 1.2108 support. Decisive break there will be an early sign of larger down trend resumption. On the upside, break of 1.2614 will extend the rise from 1.2108. But upside should be limited by 1.2705/2774 resistance zone to bring larger down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0028; (P) 1.0047; (R1) 1.0069; More.....

With 1.0007 minor support intact, intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the upside for further rally. We mentioned before that corrective decline fall from 1.0342 should have finished with three waves down to 0.9812 already. Rise from 0.9812 is expected to taken 1.0169 resistance next. Break of 1.0169 should confirm this bullish case and target a test on 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 1.0007 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is staying in medium term sideway pattern between 0.9443/1.0342. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.34; (P) 110.74; (R1) 111.19; More....

USD/JPY dips notably in Asian session but stays above 110.10 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But still, break of 112.19 resistance is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish for another fall. Break of 110.10 will extend the whole decline from m 118.65 and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Risk aversion comes back to drive the market as US President Donald Trump, while he was meeting with China President Xi Jinping, ordered air strike on Syria. That was in response to Syrian government's use of chemical weapons on civilians. Nikkei reversed earlier gains and is trading in red at the time of writing while Hong Kong HSI is trading down -1%. Most Asian indices are generally in red. Gold soars through 1270 to as high as 1271.5 and takes out resistance at 1264.9 firmly. WTI crude oil surges to as high as 52.94, comparing to yesterday's close at 51.70. In the currency market, renewed buying is seen in the Japanese yen and Swiss Franc. Canadian Dollar decouples with Aussie and Kiwi thanks to oil prices.

Trump told reporters that he "ordered a targeted military strike on the airfield in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched." And he emphasized that the strike was in the "vital national security interest of the United States" as more than 70 civilians were killed by chemical weapons. Trump's act is seen by some analysts as a reversal of his stance during his election campaign last year. At the time Trump repeatedly criticized former President Barrack Obama for acting in Syria without approval of the Congress.

Meanwhile, the focus will stay on Trump as he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping with topics like North Korea and trade at the top of the agenda.

Non-farm payroll expected to be a solid one

US job report will be another major focus of the day. Markets expect non-farm payroll to show 177k growth in March. Unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.7%. Average hour earnings are expected to rise 0.3% mom. Taking a look at other employment data, the ADP report showed solid growth of 263k in private sector jobs. Four week moving average of initial jobless claims rose 6k to 250k but stayed low.

Employment component of ISM manufacturing index jumped to 58.9, up from 54.2 and hit the highest level since June 2011. However, employment component of ISM non-manufacturing tumbled to 51.5, down from 55.2, and hit the lowest level since last August. Conference Board consumer confidence, on the other hand, jumped to 125.6, up from 116.1, and hit the highest level since December 2000.

So overall, other employment data suggest that today's NFP will be a solid one. The greenback could have a positive reaction, in particular if wage growth maintained pace. But the impact could be temporary as Fed policy makers will still need something more to convince them to adapt a faster tightening path.

Elsewhere...

Japan labor cash earnings rose 0.4% yoy in February. Swiss will release unemployment rate and foreign currency reserves in European session. UK will release productions and trade balance. Germany will also release production and trade balance. In US session, in addition to NFP, Canada will also release employment data and Ivey PMI.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.34; (P) 110.74; (R1) 111.19; More....

USD/JPY dips notably in Asian session but stays above 110.10 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations cannot be ruled out. But still, break of 112.19 resistance is needed to indicate short term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish for another fall. Break of 110.10 will extend the whole decline from m 118.65 and target 50% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 108.81. On the upside, however, break of 112.19 resistance will indicate short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.16) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

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