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USD/CHF dipped mildly lower last week but stayed in range of 1.0019/0342. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 1.0019 support holds, further rally is still mildly in favor. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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AUD/USD's rebound from 0.7158 extended last week and the stronger than expected rise is mixing up outlook. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7541. At this point, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7351 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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USD/CAD's fall from 1.3598 extended lower last week. The breach of 1.3080 key support level could have completed a double top pattern (1.3588, 1.3598) and indicates reversal. That is, whole corrective rise from 1.2460 is finished. Deeper decline is now expected this week as long as 1.3293 resistance holds. USD/CAD would now target a test on 1.2460 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would now likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 again to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

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GBP/JPY's fall from 148.42 resumed last week and initial bias stays on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 138.46. Sustained trading below 138.46 will affirm the case that corrective rise from 122.36 has completed at 148.42 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 132.31 and below. On the upside, break of 142.16 support turned resistance will turn bias to the upside for 145.38 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Upside is so far limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range. At this point, we don't expect a break of 122.36 in near term and the corrective pattern would extend for a while.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we'd expect another fall through 116.83 low.

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EUR/JPY dipped mildly last week but stayed in range of 120.90/124.08. Outlook is unchanged and initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further rally is still in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 118.45 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

In the long term picture, current medium term decline from 149.76 is seen as part of a long term sideway pattern from 88.96. Decisive break of 126.09 will indicate that such decline is completed and EUR/JPY has started another medium term rally already.

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EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8303 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.8766. The development suggests that fall from 0.9304 is completed at 0.8303. Rise from there is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern. Initial bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. On the downside, below 0.8646 minor support will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.8449 support will start the third leg of the corrective pattern to 0.8303 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8260) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

In the long term picture, firstly, price action from 0.9799 is seen as a long term corrective pattern and should have completed at 0.6935. Secondly, rise from 0.6935 is likely resuming up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). Thirdly, this is supported by the impulsive structure of the rise from 0.6935 to 0.9304. Hence, after the consolidation from 0.9304 completes, we'd expect another medium term up trend to target 0.9799 high and above.

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EUR/AUD's fall from 1.4721 resumed last week and reached as low as 1.4138. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Still, as long as 1.4322 support turned resistance holds, deeper fall is mildly in favor to 1.4072 low. Decisive break there will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. On the upside, above 1.4322 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4467 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn't over yet. We'll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.

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No change in EUR/CHF's outlook as it stayed in range of 1.0677/0762 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week. Below 1.0677 will extend the corrective fall from 1.1198 and target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.80; (P) 114.65; (R1) 115.56; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain son the downside for the moment. The decline from 118.65 would extend to 55 day EMA (now at 113.22) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 116.86 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0078; (P) 1.0162; (R1) 1.0224; More.....

USD/CHF is holding above 1.0019 support and intraday bias stays neutral first. Price actions from 1.0342 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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