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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.32% against the USD and closed at 1.0585, amid increased likelihood of a victory by anti-EU leader, Marine Le Pen in French Presidential election, after former French Prime Minister, Alain Juppe, ruled himself out of the race.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index jumped to a level of 20.7 in March, surging to its highest level in almost ten years, compared to a reading of 17.4 in the prior month. Meanwhile, markets expected the index to climb to a level of 18.5.

Separately, in Germany, the Markit construction PMI advanced to a level of 54.1 in February, after recording a level of 52.0 in the preceding month.

The US Dollar gained ground against a basket of major currencies, as investors continued to grow optimistic that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month.

On the macro front, the final durable goods orders in US rose more-than-expected by 2.0% in January, after recording a gain of 1.8% in the preliminary print and compared to a revised drop of 0.8% in the previous month. Also, the nation's factory orders climbed 1.2% in January, rising for a second straight month and surpassing investor consensus for an advance of 1.0%. In the prior month, factory orders had advanced 1.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0589, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0560, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0531. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0629, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0669.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the release of the Euro-zone's 4Q GDP and Germany's factory orders data for January, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US trade balance figures, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average

GBP/USD - 1.2225

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2238

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2258

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2274

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2262

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2220, Target: 1.2340, Stop: 1.2185

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has remained under pressure after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.2301, suggesting near term downside risk remains for retest of 1.2214 (last week’s low), however, break there is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2200, then towards 1.2170-75 but reckon 1.2150 would hold from here due to loss of downward momentum, bring another rebound later. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2258) would bring recovery to 1.2275-80, break there would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to said resistance at 1.2301 and then 1.2315-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214), above there would extend gain to 1.2347 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous support) but price should falter well below 1.2375-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2479-1.2214) and bring another decline. 

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.5% against the USD and closed at 1.2237.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2245, with the GBP trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data showed that UK’s BRC retail sales across all sectors declined more-than-expected by 0.4% YoY in February, compared to a fall of 0.6% in the prior month, while market participants were expecting retail sales to ease 0.2%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2213, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2180. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2286, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2326.

Going ahead, traders would look forward to UK’s Halifax house price index for February, due to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.09% against the JPY and closed at 113.89.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.90, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 113.59, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 113.28. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 114.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.4.

Moving ahead, investors will focus on Japan’s final 4Q GDP and trade balance data, both scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.41% against the CHF and closed at 1.0115.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0111, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0077, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0043. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0137, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0163.

With no major economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.22% against the CAD and closed at 1.3410.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3390, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3365, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3339. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3420, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3449.

Ahead in the day, market participants will closely monitor Canada's Ivey PMI for February and international merchandise trade balance data for January.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the resistance trend line (red) but the reaction has been mild and choppy, which makes an expanded correction within waves Y (green/blue) likely. A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue.

The EUR/USD tested the resistance trend line (red) one more time, which could be a wave 5 (orange) within wave A (blue). Price has bounced at the 50% Fib and could continue towards the wave C (blue) targets at the Fibonacci levels. A break below the support line (green) invalidates the ABC (blue) whereas the other Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A could act as support.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD bounced at the top of the bearish channel (red lines) and is now approaching the previous bottom and 100% Fibonacci target. A bearish breakout could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of waves 3 (green). A bullish retracement see price test the resistance again (orange/red).

The GBP/USD break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (green). A break above the inner resistance line (light orange) could see price expand with the wave 4 (blue) retracement towards the previous resistance (orange/red lines).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY bounced at the resistance level (red line) and a break above it could see the USD/JPY continue with the uptrend and the waves 3 (blue/brown).

The USD/JPY used the strong resistance (red) to bounce and could be building an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

RBA on hold with slightly rosier view of domestic economy

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: RBA on hold with slightly rosier view of domestic economy; THAAD system components start to arrive in Korea

US Session Highlights

(US) Trump trade adviser Navarro: Questions Chinese, Japanese, German and Indian trade fairness; Can reduce trade deficit through negotiations

(MX) Mexico central bank begins auction of $1B in non-deliverable forwards (start of $20B program to bolster the peso)

(MX) MEXICO FEB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 75.7 V 68.6E

(US) JAN FACTORY ORDERS: 1.2% V 1.0%E

IEA Chief Economist Birol: beginning to see a second wave of US shale growth, the size of which will determine the oil price direction

US markets on close: Dow -0.2%, S&P500 -0.3%, Nasdaq -0.4%

Best Sector in S&P500: Energy

Worst Sector in S&P500: Materials

Biggest gainers: RRC +4.1%, COG +3.5%, SWN +3.0%, NFLX +2.0%, MRO +1.8%

Biggest losers: ENDP -6.9%, CSRA -4.3%, FTR -3.8%, FSLR -3.7%, RIG -3.6%

At the close: VIX 11.2 (+0.3pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.31% (flat), 10-yr 2.49% (flat), 30-yr 3.10% (+1bps)

US movers afterhours

MEET: Reports Q4 $0.19 v $0.19e, R$29.2M v $28.7Me; +18.5% afterhours

WFT: Names Mark A. McCollum new CEO effective in late April; +14.6% afterhours

ASNA: Reports Q2 -$0.07 v -$0.10e, R$1.75B v $1.75Be; +7.8% afterhours

DISH: To be added to S&P500 Index, effective at the open on March 13th; +5.3% afterhours

PIR: Guides Q4 $0.32-0.34 v $0.30e; Rev -2.6%; SSS +0.2% - We are raising our estimates for earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter and full year as a result of a number of key factors; +5.0% afterhours

CRM: IBM and Salesforce announce global strategic partnership centered on artificial intelligence; +2.1% afterhours

THO: Reports Q2 $1.23 v $1.26e, R$1.59B v $1.51Be- Q2 Consolidated RV backlog $1.38B v $1.21B q.qq; -2.5% afterhours

CASY: Reports Q3 $0.58 v $0.88e, R$1.77B v $1.82Be; To repurchase up to $300M in common stock (6.7% of market cap); -4.6% afterhours

PCRX: Files to sell $300M aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2022; -4.9% afterhours

KTWO: Reports Q4 -$0.30 v -$0.26e, R$61.8M v $61.5Me- Guides initial FY17 R$263-270M v $270Me - Guides initial FY17 adj EBITDA $6-10M; -8.0% afterhours

Politics

(US) House releases text of Obamacare replacement bill: To include refundable tax credits tied to age and income

Asia Key economic data:

(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50% (AS EXPECTED)

(AU) AUSTRALIA FEB AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 53.1 V 47.7 PRIOR (1st expansion in 5-months)

(TW) TAIWAN FEB CPI Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.7%E; WPI Y/Y: 2.2% V 3.0%E

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asia indices are mixed as investors shrugged political drama in Washington. Energy led other sectors in US session despite lower oil prices, while Financials and Materials slumped. Nikkei225 put in a modest drop as USD/JPY sank back below ¥114. AUD/USD was also volatile, with RBA delivering a modest upgrade of economic conditions, but not enough to materially shift expectations for a rate hike this year.

AUD rose going into the decision to session highs of 0.7630 on expectations of hawkish language and then fell back below 0.76 on release of another neutral statement. Most notably, RBA added that "exports have risen strongly and non-mining business investment has risen over the past year" and also acknowledged better Q4 GDP by noting that "consumption growth was stronger towards the end of the year". However, RBA also reiterated that inflation remains quite low and cheered depreciating exchange rate in assisting economy transition from its mining boom. Fixed income markets were pricing in about a 30% chance of a rate hike this year going into the statement, and after the decision those odds rose only about 3pts.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula continued to simmer as White House released a statement that President Trump spoke with leaders of Japan and South Korea. Trump said the North Korea launch is a violation of UN resolutions and poses a "serious threat". On a related note, US commander in the region said the launch justifies THAAD deployment which started today and may begin operating as soon as next month. Recall that China has been a vocal opponent of THAAD deployment in the region, cancelling joint exercises with South Korea and urging termination of the system.

China

(CN) China NDRC: Sees coal prices falling steadily, coal supply is sufficient

(CN) UBS Economist Hu: Sees PBOC cutting RRR 4x in 2017; benchmark rate hike unlikely this year

(CN) PBOC Dep Gov Yi Gang: Will seek to prevent systemic risk and moral hazard in markets - Chinese press

Japan

(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: China needs to address overcapacity and debt issues

(JP) Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER): Japan Jan GDP estimated at -0.5% m/m v -0.5% prior - Nikkei

Australia

(AU) AMP's Oliver: RBA to remain on hold until H2 of 2018 - SMH

(NZ) IMF: New Zealand household debt continues to be a risk to financial stability

Korea

(KR) Commander of US Pacific Command: North Korea's latest missile launch confirms the need for THAAD deployment; some equipment, including 2 launch pads for Thaad US missile defense system, has arrived in South Korea; Thaad may start operating as soon as April

(KR) White House: Pres Trump spoke to Japan PM Abe and South Korea acting Pres Hwang; North Korea poses a "serious threat" and latest missile launch is a clear violation of UN resolutions - press

(KR) South Korea govt think tank (KDI): Modest economic recovery losing momentum due to faltering consumption - Korean press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, ASX200 +0.2%, Kospi +0.7%

Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq flat; Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.2%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.0570-1.0595; JPY 113.85-114.10; AUD 0.7575-0.7630; NZD 0.6980-0.7020

Apr Gold flat at $1,225/oz; Apr Crude Oil flat at $53.20/brl; May Copper +0.1% at $2.66/lb

(IQ) Iraq energy min: Iraq would participate if OPEC decides to extend the cut agreement past June 30th, but too soon to say if it should be extended - Ceraweek conf comments

(AU) Australia Port Hedland Feb Iron Ore Exports 35.7Mt v 40.3Mt m/m

GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 3.8 tonnes to 836.8 tonnes; lowest since Feb 10th; 2nd straight decline

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8957 V 6.8790 PRIOR; weakest CNY setting since Jan 17th

(CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY30B v CNY40B prior in 7-day, 14-day and 28-day reverse repos

(JP) Japan MoF sells ¥723B in 0.8% (0.6% prior) 30-yr bonds; Avg yield: 0.821% v 0.907% prior; Bid to cover: 3.14x v 3.23x prior

(KR) South Korea sells 30-yr Govt bonds at 2.369%

Asia equities/Notables/movers by sector

Consumer discretionary: 848.HK Maoye International Holdings -1.3% (profit warning); 7956.JP Pigeon Corp +1.5% (FY16/17 result)

Financials: 6030.HK CITIC Securities +1.6% (Feb result); 1918.HK Sunac China Holdings +3.4%, 688.HK China Overseas Land +1.3% (Feb result); WFD.AU Westfield Corp -1.5% (Credit Suisse cuts rating)

Industrials: 2333.HK Great Wall Motor +0.8% (Feb result); 4005.JP Sumitomo Chemical Co +2.3% (to triple OLED screen capacity); 6103.JP Okuma Corp +2.4% (Goldman Sachs raises rating); 7211.JP Mitsubishi Motors -1.5% (Nomura cuts rating)

Technology: 066570.KR LG Electronics Inc +5.0% (strong preorders of G6 smartphone); 7751.JP Canon +2.1% (efforts to form profit structure); 7974.JP Nintendo Co +1.9% (Switch device sales)

Materials: RRL.AU Regis Resources -3.5%, RSG.AU Resolute Mining -3.6%, SBM.AU St Barbara -1.5% (gold declines)

Utilities: 5803.JP Fujikura -2.5% (Nomura cuts rating)

EUR/USD

The week started in a dull fashion, with investors lacking motivation to push currencies one way of the other, amid the absence of macroeconomic and political news. The EUR/USD pair eased modestly after attempting a bullish breakout early London, having, however, set a fresh 3-week high of 1.0639, but settled a handful of pips below the 1.0600 threshold. There were some minor macroeconomic releases, including the EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March, which reached a 10-year high of 20.7, and US Factory Orders for January, up 1.2% as expected, the second consecutive monthly increase. Nevertheless, investors held in wait-and-see mode ahead of the main events of the week, the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday, and the US Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday.

The European Central Bank is expected to remain on hold, as despite inflation has been advancing during the last two months, it has been driven by volatile components such as energy and food, with the underlying inflation still at 0.9%. Still, the Central Bank will reduce its monthly amount of purchases to €60b starting next April, which may arise speculation of tapering, although the most likely scenario is another form of easing planned to 2018.

In the meantime, the pair trades uneventfully above the 1.0565 Fibonacci support. The 4 hours chart shows that technical indicators have lost their upward strength and turned south within positive territory, but are still above previous daily lows, whilst the price is moving back and forth around a bearish 100 SMA, and above a slightly bullish 20 SMA, indicating limited directional strength. The key support is the 1.0520 region, as renewed selling interest below the level could see the pair extending its slide towards 1.0340, this year low, while the upside remains well-limited as long as the price remains below the 1.0700/20 price zone.

Support levels: 1.0565 1.0520 1.0470

Resistance levels: 1.0635 1.0660 1.0710

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair ends the day unchanged from Friday's close, although recovering from a daily low of 113.55 achieved at the beginning of the day. As usual, yields differentials are dominating price action, but given that US treasury notes' yields are pretty much unchanged intraday, the pair is mute. The 10-year benchmark advanced to 2.50% from previous 2.49%, while the 2-year note remained flat. There's little ahead in Japan this Tuesday, with attention centered in early Wednesday GDP and Trade balance figures. The pair fell briefly below its 100 DMA, but settled above it, although selling interest around 114.50 keeps limiting advances. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the 100 and 200 SMA converge around 113.25 with no directional strength, reflecting the absence of a clear trend, whilst technical indicators have lost their bearish tone after entering bearish territory, with the RSI indicator already above its mid-line, heading north around 55. Still, the pair needs to advance beyond 114.95, February 15th high, to shrug off at least partially, the bearish tone.

Support levels: 113.50 113.25 112.90

Resistance levels: 114.55 114.95 115.30

GBP/USD

After failing to surpass the 1.2300 level, the GBP/USD pair fell towards its recent multi-week low, ending the day not far from last week low of 1.2213. The macroeconomic calendar was scarce in the UK, and will remain so until next Friday, which means attention will center in Brexit woes. This Monday, a spokesman from the government said that Theresa May will not allow the Parliament to vote over her Brexit deal, if such votes means bad trade terms for the UK. On Tuesday, the House of Lords will vote parliamentary veto rights. The pair is biased lower according to technical readings in the 4 hours chart, as the price was unable to advance beyond 1.2300 before finally breaking below a critical Fibonacci support, now resistance at 1.2260. In the same chart, attempts to advance have been contained by a bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have turned south after failing to overcome their mid-lines, all of which suggests that the pair may extend its decline, particularly on a break below the mentioned six-week low.

Support levels: 1.2215 1.2170 1.2230

Resistance levels: 1.2260 1.2300 1.2345

GOLD

Gold prices edged lower on Monday, with spot settling around $1,227.20 a troy ounce, as the greenback regained some of its charm after Friday's setback. Expectations of a March hate hike weighed on the safe-haven metal, despite the sour tone of worldwide equities that started early Asia when North Korea launched some missiles in the Japanese sea, triggering risk aversion. The commodity neared March's low of 1,222.80, the immediate support, and the daily chart shows that the price remained contained by a horizontal 20 DMA currently at 1,239.25, whilst technical indicators entered bearish territory with nice bearish slopes. Also, the commodity is finishing the day below the 50% retracement of the post-US election decline at 1,230.00, although a break below the mentioned monthly low is required to confirm a steeper decline. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that attempts to recover were rejected by a bearish 20 SMA that already crossed below the 100 SMA, whilst technical indicators head south within negative territory, in line with the longer term perspective.

Support levels1,222.80 1,210.90 1,201.15

Resistance levels: 1,230.00 1,239.25 1,245.50

WTI CRUDE

Crude oil prices saw little action at the beginning of the week, with West Texas Intermediate futures ending the day pretty much unchanged at $53.14 a troy ounce. Oil prices slipped in Asian trading on doubts about Russia's compliance with the output cut deal, although it later recovered after Iraq said that the OPEC will likely need to extend its output cut into the second half of 2017, and that the country is ready to do so if needed. From a technical point of view, the black gold presents a neutral-to-bearish stance as in the daily chart, as the price remains below its 20 DMA, while technical indicators have turned modestly lower around their mid-lines. In the same chart, however, the 100 DMA heads modestly higher around 51.60, providing a strong dynamic support in the case of further declines. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its decline below the 100 and 200 SMAs, maintaining its bearish slope, whilst technical indicators have recovered from near oversold readings, losing upward strength around their mid-lines, indicating a limited upward potential.

Support levels: 52.50 51.90 51.40

Resistance levels: 53.70 54.20 54.80

DJIA

Wall Street closed in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 51 points or 0.24%, to 20,954.34. The Nasdaq Composite lost 21 points and settled at 5,849.18, while the S&P shed 0.33%, to 2,375.31. Within the Dow, most components closed lower, with Travelers Cos leading the decline, down 1.22%, followed by JPMorgan Chase that shed 0.92%, as banks were weighed by their European counterparts. Caterpillar led gainers, adding 0.76%, followed by Exxon Mobil that gained 0.47%. US equities were undermined by Fed's hawkish rhetoric, as investors eye now a downward corrective move following the run to records seen last week. The daily chart for the Dow shows that the positive tone persists, despite the latest slide, as the index remains far above bullish moving averages, whilst the RSI indicator corrected within extreme overbought levels, bouncing now from 70 and the Momentum indicator also resuming its advance within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, however, the benchmark develops below a modestly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 21,004, whilst the Momentum indicator aims higher within bearish territory and the RSI indicator stands pat in neutral territory.

Support levels: 20,905 20,849 20,800

Resistance levels: 21,017 21,064 21,114

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day 0.33% lower at 7,350.12, weighed by a decline in commodities that dragged lower the mining sector, and despite a merge news that sent Standard Life to the top of the list, as the share added 5.68% after the Scotland’s largest insurer agreed to acquire Aberdeen Asset Management Plc, creating one of Europe’s biggest fund managers. Copper led miners lower, with Glencore topping losers' list, down by 3.47%, followed by Anglo American that shed 2.71%. The banking sector also suffered on Deutsche Bank news, with Royal Bank of Scotland ending the day 2.59% lower. From a technical point of view, the decline has been little relevant, as the index remains well above its moving averages and near record highs, whilst technical indicators have turned modestly lower, but held within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, the index bounced from a bullish 20 SMA, but the Momentum indicator is entering negative territory, whilst the RSI hovers around 57 with no clear directional strength, indicating a limited upward potential at the time being.

Support levels: 7,352 7,320 7,287

Resistance levels: 7,397 7,420 7,450

DAX

European equities closed in the red, with the German DAX down 68 points or 0.57%, to 11,958.40. Deutsche Bank led the way lower across the region, on news that the biggest European lender is facing legal action over foreign currency trading practices, from an US firm. The bank was the worst performer, shedding 3.46%, and leading the sector lower all across the region. ThyssenKrupp followed, down by 1.69%. Only eight components closed higher, with Muenchener being the best performer, up 0.61%. The daily chart for the index shows that, despite the intraday slide, it's still holding above a bullish 20 DMA at 11,838, while technical indicators retreat within positive territory with limited bearish strength. In the 4 hours chart, the index present an increased bearish potential, as it stands below a still bullish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator entered bearish territory and the RSI holds around neutral territory, indicating that further declines are likely on a break below 11,920, the daily low.

Support levels: 11,920 11,867 11,816

Resistance levels: 12,001 12,053 12,100

EUR/USD - 1.0583

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0583

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0607

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0590

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0561

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0545, Target: 1.0645, Stop: 1.0510

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the single currency retreated after rising to 1.0640 yesterday and consolidation with initial downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.0560, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0540-45 and bring another rebound later, above said resistance at 1.0640 would extend the erratic rise from 1.0493 lo for retracement of early decline to 1.0660-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0829-1.0493) and possibly towards resistance at 1.0680, however, price should falter well below 1.0700-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips. Below 1.0510 would abort and risk retest of 1.0493 but only break there would shift risk back to the downside and signal recent decline from 1.0829 has resumed for further selloff to 1.0470 and then towards previous support at 1.0454.