Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8758; (P) 0.8804; (R1) 0.8847; More...

No change in EUR/GBP's outlook. With 0.8646 support intact, rebound from 0.8303 is expected to target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. Such rebound is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 0.9304. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping above 0.8922. On the downside, though, break of 0.8646 minor support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8260) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4149; (P) 1.4179; (R1) 1.4203; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Above 1.4332 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway trading. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.4072 low will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0704; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0735; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment as it's bounded in range of 1.0677/0762. Below 1.0677 will extend the corrective fall from 1.1198 and target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3132; (P) 1.3159; (R1) 1.3201; More...

No change in USD/CAD's outlook. With 1.3293 resistance intact, deeper decline is expected. As noted before, prior break of 1.3080 key support level could have completed a double top pattern (1.3588, 1.3598) and indicates reversal. That is, whole corrective rise from 1.2460 is finished. Further fall should be seen to retest 1.2460 low. However, break of 1.3293 will invalidate this bearish case and turn bias to the upside for retesting 1.3598.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely finished at 1.3598 too after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3575. Break of 1.3080 would now likely resume the fall from 1.4689 through 1.2460 to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. We'd start to look for reversal signal below 1.2460 again to complete the correction. In case of another rise, we'll look for topping sign at 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7454; (P) 0.7480; (R1) 0.7501; More...

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.7158 extends to as high as 0.7547 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and further rise should be seen. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 0.7777 to 0.7518 at 0.7541 will target 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. At this point, we'd still expect strong resistance from this zone to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7448 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7144 key support level.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is staying inside long term falling channel and it's likely that the down trend from 1.1079 is still in progress. Break of 0.6826 low will confirm this bearish case. We'll be looking for bottoming sign again as it approaches 0.6008 key support level. Meanwhile, sustained break of 0.7833 resistance will be a strong sign of medium term reversal.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0086; (P) 1.0111; (R1) 1.0135; More.....

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as it's still staying in range of 1.0019/0342 in spite of dollar weakness elsewhere. As long as 1.0019 support holds, further rally is still mildly in favor. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.71; (P) 114.08; (R1) 114.55; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 118.65 extends to as low as 113.06 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0574; (P) 1.0604 (R1) 1.0630; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. With 1.0453 minor support intact, further rise is expected for 1.0872 resistance and above. But after all, rise from 1.0339 is seen as a corrective move. Below 1.0453 will argue that it's completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1990; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2089; More...

GBP/USD recovers after hitting as low as 1.1986. But near term outlook stays cautiously bearish as long as 1.2316 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1946 low will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3444 to 1.1946 from 1.2774 at 1.1848 and then 100% projection at 1.1276. However, above 1.2316 will turn focus back to 1.2432 resistance. Break there will invalidate our bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.1946 with another rise before down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Sterling recovers mildly today but remains the weakest major currency for the week. Prime minister Theresa May's speech on Brexit is the main focus and could trigger more volatility in the pound. It's reported that May will reject the idea of "partial" EU member in return for a full control of UK's border. The trade relationship that May would like to push through is unknown. But EU leaders have already made it clear that UK cannot "cherry pick" access to the single markets. The pound could stay under pressure after May's speech. Technically, Sterling is staying bearish against Dollar, Euro and Yen in near term and we'd expect more downside ahead.

Theresa May is scheduled to speak before audience at Lancaster House, Westminster, including ambassadors from across the world, today. As the Guardian noted, May is expected to say in her speech that "we seek a new and equal partnership – between an independent, self-governing, global Britain and our friends and allies in the EU. Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out... We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave. The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. My job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do".

Separately, BoE governor Mark Carney talked down recent moves in the exchange rate and said that "value of the pound will go up and down." He acknowledged "signs of continued solid consumer momentum domestically and a stronger growth outlook globally", noting that "the tension between consumer strength on the one hand and the more pessimistic expectations of markets on the other will be resolved". However, firstly, he still expected growth to "remain below past averages for the next few years". And, "one corroborating indicator of this potential deceleration is that the UK expansion is increasingly consumption-led."

On the data front, Australia home loans rose 0.9% in November. Japan industrial production was finalized at 1.5% mom in November. UK will release CPI and PPI. Eurozone will release ZEW economic sentiment. US will release Empire state manufacturing later in US session.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1990; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2089; More...

GBP/USD recovers after hitting as low as 1.1986. But near term outlook stays cautiously bearish as long as 1.2316 resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1946 low will confirm larger down trend resumption. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3444 to 1.1946 from 1.2774 at 1.1848 and then 100% projection at 1.1276. However, above 1.2316 will turn focus back to 1.2432 resistance. Break there will invalidate our bearish view and extend the consolidation from 1.1946 with another rise before down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Economic Indicators Update

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