Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More...

USD/JPY's fall and break of 114.76 support indicates short term topping at 118.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 118.65 will target at test on 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Dollar traded broadly lower while stocks struggled in tight range as markets are dissatisfied with the lack of clarity on economic policies at president-elect Donald Trump's first post election press conference. DJIA gained 98.75 pts, or 0.50%, to close at 19954.28, still lacks buying to push through 20000 handle. S&P 500 rose 6.42 pts, or 0.28%, to close at 2275.32, kept below recent high at 2282.10. Dollar index had a volatile day yesterday, jumping to as high as 102.95 but then reversed and dipped to as low as 101.28, now back at 101.50. Gold rode on Dollar weakness and extended recent rebound, set to take on 1200 handle today. WTI crude oil also rebounded and is trading above 52 for the moment. In the currency markets, Yen is clearly strengthening on falling yield but is overwhelmed by the strength in Aussie. Sterling and Dollar remain the two weakest major currency for the week.

In UK, BoE governor Mark Carney hinted that the central bank could raise economic forecast in the quarter inflation report to be published next month. He noted that "recent data would be consistent with some further upgrade of the forecast but that process has not yet started." Regarding the risk of Brexit to financial stability, Carney noted that "there are greater financial stability risks on the continent in the short term, for the transition, than there are for the UK." And he urged that financial institutions in EU countries to "think very carefully about the transition from where you are today to where the new equilibrium will be."

Meanwhile, ECB president Mario Draghi urged oversight of UK's clearing activities even after Brexit. Draghi noted that "It will be important to find solutions that at least preserve, or ideally enhance, the current level of supervision and oversight." ECB spokes man Rolf Benders said that "the location of clearing houses for euro payment and settlement services after the U.K. leaves the European Union will depend on details of the exit agreement."

On the data front, Japan current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1.80T in November. Eurozone industrial production and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are the main features in European session. US will release jobless claims and import price index later today. Canada will release new housing price index.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.12; (P) 115.50; (R1) 116.76; More...

USD/JPY's fall and break of 114.76 support indicates short term topping at 118.65. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 113.10) and below. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Above 118.65 will target at test on 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.18; (P) 115.76; (R1) 116.33; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation pattern from 118.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 114.76 support intact, outlook stays bullish with further rally expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 113.12) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0125; (P) 1.0151; (R1) 1.0192; More.....

USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 1.0342 and intraday bias stays neutral. Another fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, sustained break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2099; (P) 1.2185; (R1) 1.2246; More...

GBP/USD's fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Decline from 1.2774 should target a test on 1.1946 low next. As noted before, decisive break there will confirm our bearish view and resume the larger down trend. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.2432 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Dollar strengthens mildly today ahead of US president-elect Donald Trump's first post election press conference. Nonetheless, the strength is mainly seen against European majors. The dip in EUR/USD sent the dollar index above 102.50 briefly but there is no follow through buying in the greenback yet. US stock index futures also point to a flat open. The press conference will be held at 11am eastern time today and no specific topic was announced. Nonetheless, markets will be eagerly looking for details of Trump's expansive fiscal plans; The so called "Trump Rally" in stocks, yield and dollar lost much steam since the start of the year and will need fresh stimulus for the next moves.

The World Economic Forum noted some of the most significant global risks for this year, in a report surveyed 750 experts. Dani Rodrik, proposed a theory of globalization "Trilemma" in which only two of democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration could be simultaneously compatible And recent developments indicated that democracy and national sovereignty are the priorities. Meanwhile, the rise of populism, Brexit and Donald Trump's win post geopolitical risks. And, there could be step back from 2016's development including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Trans-Altlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

On the data front, UK industrial production rose 2.1% mom, 1.3% yoy in November, above expectation of 0.9% mom, 0.6% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 1.3% mom, 1.2% yoy, above expectation of 0.5% mom, 0.4% yoy. Construction output dropped -0.2% mom in November. Trade deficit widened to GBP -12.2b in November. From Japan, leading index rose to 102.7 in November.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0604; More.....

EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 1.0339/0652. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0604; More.....

EUR/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 1.0339/0652. Intraday bias remains neutral for consolidation. As long as 1.0652 holds, outlook stays bearish and another decline is expected. Break of 1.0339 will extend the larger down trend to parity next. However, break of 1.0652 will now confirm short term bottoming and turn near term outlook bullish for stronger rebound to 1.0872 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 140.23; (P) 140.84; (R1) 141.51; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside as fall from 148.42 short term top is in progress. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 138.46. As note before, rise from 122.36 is seen as a corrective move. Sustained trading below 138.46 and downside acceleration will indicate that such correction is finished too. And in that case, deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 132.31 and below. On the upside, break of 145.38 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the fall from 148.42. Otherwise, near term outlook stays bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Price actions from there are expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.86; (P) 122.40; (R1) 122.69; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in the consolidation from 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. As rise from 109.20 is still seen as a corrective pattern, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 120.33) and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8634; (P) 0.8698; (R1) 0.8733; More...

A temporary top is in place at 0.8764 as EUR/GBP lost momentum. Intraday bias is turned neutral first but another rise is expected as long as 0.8449 holds. Rise from 0.8303 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 0.9304. Above 0.8764 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 and above. We'll expect strong resistance above 0.8922 to limit upside and bring another fall. On the downside, below 0.8449 will turn bias to the downside for retesting 0.8303 first. Break there will extend the whole fall from 0.9304. In that case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at around 0.8116.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8243) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box