Sample Category Title

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started an upside correction above 1.0180.
• GBP/USD gained pace and broke the 1.2050 resistance.
• Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,740 resistance.
• The US ISM Manufacturing PMI could decline from 53 to 52 in July 2022.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a fresh recovery wave above the 1.0050 resistance against the US Dollar. EUR/USD climbed above 1.0120 to move into a positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair was able to settle above the 1.0150 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). The pair broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.0614 swing high to 0.9955 low.

It is now facing resistance near the 1.0285 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.0614 swing high to 0.9955 low.

The next major resistance is near the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours) at 1.0300, above which the pair could accelerate higher. Conversely, EUR/USD might fail to climb above 1.0285 and react to the downside.

An initial support is near the 1.0185 level. The next major support is 1.0160 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours), below which the pair could accelerate lower towards 1.0120. Any more losses might send the pair towards the 1.0050 zone.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair started a strong recovery wave after it was able to settle above the 1.2000 and 1.2050 resistance levels.

Economic Releases

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for July 2022 - Forecast 49.2, versus 49.2 previous.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for July 2022 – Forecast 49.6, versus 49.6 previous.
• UK Manufacturing PMI for July 2022 – Forecast 52.2, versus 52.2 previous.
• US Manufacturing PMI for July 2022 – Forecast 52.3, versus 52.3 previous.
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2022 – Forecast 52.0, versus 53.0 previous.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.27; (P) 133.47; (R1) 134.44; More...

USD/JPY's fall from 139.37 continues today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Deep fall should be seen to 131.34 resistance turned support and below. But strong support is expected above 126.35 to contain downside, at least on first attempt, to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 135.55 will bring stronger rise back to retest 139.37 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 139.37, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there could be correcting whole up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). While deeper decline cannot be ruled out, outlook will stays bullish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 121.84) holds. Long term up trend is expected to resume through 139.37 at a later stage, after the correction finishes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9480; (P) 0.9537; (R1) 0.9572; More...

Further decline could be seen in USD/CHF. But price actions from 1.0063 high are still viewed as a consolidation pattern. Hence, strong support should be seen from 0.9471 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9598 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for recovery towards 55 day EMA (now at 0.9663) and above. However, sustained break of 0.9471 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9193 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.8756 (2021 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target is 1.0342 (2016 high). Sustained break there will resume long term up trend from 0.7065 (2011 low). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9471 resistance turned support holds. However, firm break of 0.9471 will raise the chance that such up trend is over.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2078; (P) 1.2162; (R1) 1.2261; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2244 temporary top. On the upside, break of 1.2244 will resume the rebound from 1.1759 for 1.2405 resistance. Firm break there will target 1.2666 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.2019 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.1759 low instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409 (2020 low), or resuming the longer term down trend. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2666 resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low. However, firm break of 1.2666 will bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.2957).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0164; (P) 1.0209; (R1) 1.0272; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, above 1.0277 minor resistance will target 1.0348 resistance first. Break there will target channel resistance at 1.0469. On the downside, break of 1.0095 minor support will bring retest of 0.9951 low instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0773 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6925; (P) 0.6978; (R1) 0.7046; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 0.7030 will resume the rebound from 0.6680 to 0.7282 key resistance next. On the downside, however, break of 0.6858 minor support will argue that the rebound is over. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 0.6680 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 (2021 high) could still be a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). But current downside acceleration, as seen in weekly MACD), is raising the chance that it's a bearish impulsive move. In either case, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.7282 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2772; (P) 1.2813; (R1) 1.2838; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.3222 would target 1.2818 support. On the upside, above 1.2945 minor resistance will revive near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3222 instead.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4667 (2020 high) should have completed at 1.2005, after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Rise from there should target 61.8% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3650. This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.2516 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9702; (P) 0.9728; (R1) 0.9755; More....

EUR/CHF's down trend is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9650 long term projection level. Some support might be seen there to bring rebound. But break of 0.9948 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish. Firm break of 0.9650 will target 100% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9970 from 1.0513 at 0.9334.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to target 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 0.9033. On the upside, break of 1.0513 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8370; (P) 0.8393; (R1) 0.8416; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for consolidation above 0.8344 temporary low. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, further decline is expected as long as 0.8585 resistance holds. Below 0.8344 will resume the fall from 0.8720 for retesting 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Medium term term bearishness is maintained. Break of 0.8201 will resume larger down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high). Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8697 will affirm the case that rise from 0.8201 is a medium term up trend itself.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4557; (P) 1.4622; (R1) 1.4690; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the upside further recovery. But upside should be limited below 1.4910 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break the 1.4508 will resume the decline from 1.5396 to retest 1.4318 low.

In the bigger picture, rejection by 1.5354 support turned resistance, as well as 55 week EMA (now at 1.5378), maintain medium term bearishness. That is, larger down trend from 1.9799 is not completed yet. Break of 1.4318 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). This will remain the favored case now as long as 1.5396 resistance holds.