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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8435; (P) 0.8465; (R1) 0.8482; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 0.8365 support holds. On the upside, break of 0.8617 will resume rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8365 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4924; (P) 1.5006; (R1) 1.5066; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. Corrective rebound from 1.4318 should have completed with three waves up to 1.5227, ahead of 1.5354 resistance. Below 1.4885 will target 1.4597 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.4318 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.5277 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0262; (P) 1.0283; (R1) 1.0310; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. But further fall is expected with 1.0359 minor resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 0.9970 should have completed with three waves up to 1.0513, after rejection by 1.0505 key resistance. Below 1.0228 will target 1.0086 support. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.9970 low. However, break of 1.0359 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger recovery back towards 1.0513 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0529; (P) 1.0564 (R1) 1.0595; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.0641 resistance will confirm short term bottoming at 1.0348, ahead of 1.0339 long term support. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0766). On the downside, however, decisive break of 1.0339 will carry larger bearish implication and target 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 1.0339 long term support (2017 low). Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 1.0090. However, firm break of 1.0805 support turned resistance will delay this bearish case and bring medium term corrective rebound first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2453; (P) 1.2476; (R1) 1.2515; More..

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2154 extends higher today, but stays below 1.2637 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.2637 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.2154. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.2781). On the downside, below 1.2329 minor support will bring retest of 1.2154 first. Break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4248.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) at least at the same degree as the rise from 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer term down trend. In either case, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9704; (P) 0.9734; (R1) 0.9774; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the downside. Fall from 1.0063 would extend lower and sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9193 to 1.0063 at 0.9731 will target 55 day EMA (now at 0.9589). But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 0.9525 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9859 minor resistance will bring retest of 1.0063 high.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.55; (P) 127.92; (R1) 128.32; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the downside at this point. Correction from 131.34 short term top would extend to 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 129.77 minor resistance will suggest that the correction is finished and bring retest of 131.34.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2788; (P) 1.2828; (R1) 1.2879; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. With 1.2712 support intact, further is still in favor. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7004; (P) 0.7039; (R1) 0.7075; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom is on track to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7183). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Overall market sentiment is mixed in Asian session today, with recover seen in Nikkei but selloff in Hong Kong and China. Aussie is extending near term rebound, following Labor's win in the federal elections over the weekend. Kiwi is also firmer ahead of RBNZ rate hike. On the other hand, Dollar and Canadian are the softer ones. European majors and Yen are mixed for now.

Technically, as Gold's recovery extends too, attention is on 1858.57 minor resistance. Firm break there will confirm short term bottoming at 1786.65. Stronger rebound would be seen back to channel resistance at around 19333. Such development could be accompanied by deeper pull back in Dollar, in particular against commodity currencies.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.56%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.95%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.51%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.47%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0049 at 0.235.

ECB Lagarde: Rate hike could be a few weeks after stopping net asset purchases

ECB President Christine Lagarde told Dutch television over the weekend, "we are going to follow the path of stopping net asset purchase. Then, sometime after that -- which could be a few weeks -- hike interest rates." That's seen as an indication that a rate hike could happen in July, after stopping asset purchases in June.

Governing Council member Klass Knot floated the idea of a 50bps hike earlier. But Lagarde said, "it's not something that I can tell you at this point in time." She emphasized, "we need to make sure that this is going gradually enough so that we don't put the break on this car that is moving. We have to lift the accelerator for sure to slow inflation but we cannot be breaking any speed."

RBA Kent: Gradual QT also plays a role in stimulus removal

RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said in a speech that while most observers focuses were on the central bank's 25bps rate hike this month, it also decided to proceed with "quantitative tightening".

"As the Bank now takes steps to remove the considerable monetary stimulus, increases in the cash rate are the tried and tested measure that will do most of the work...," he said. "the gradual process of QT will also play a role in this task, but a predictable and modest one."

"Because the Bank's bond portfolio will mature gradually, the Bank's balance sheet and commercial banks' ES balances will remain large for some years. This means that the cash rate will continue to trade slightly below the cash rate target, but above the rate paid on ES balances. Most importantly though, the Bank will continue to be able to maintain effective control over the cash rate as it withdraws monetary policy stimulus in the period ahead."

RBNZ rate hike and FOMC minutes

RBNZ is widely expected to continue with its tightening cycle this week, and raise OCR by another 50bps to 2.00%. There is no change in the view that OCR could peak at around 3.4%, as RBNZ projected. But it would now take shorter than earlier expected time to reach the peak of the cycle. RBNZ should reinforce this message to the markets.

From recent comments, Fed official displayed a consensus on the plan of 50bps hike per meeting, at least for the next few ones. FOMC minutes should reflect the discussions and affirm this message too. Meanwhile What next beyond, say July or August, as well as the end point for the year would remain data dependent.

On the data front, PMIs will be the major focuses this week. In addition, Germany Ifo and Gfk sentiment; US durable goods orders, personal income and spending; New Zealand and Australia retail sales, Canada retail sales will also be watched.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Germany Ifo business climate.
• Tuesday: New Zealand retail sales; Australia PMIs; Japan PMI manufacturing; UK public sector net borrowing, PMIs; Eurozone PMIs; US PMIs, new home sales.
• Wednesday: RBNZ rate decision; Germany GDP final, Gfk consumer climate; Swiss Credit Suisse economic expectations; US durable goods orders, FOMC minutes.
• Thursday: Japan corporate services prices; Australia private capital expenditure; Canada retail sales; US GDP revision, jobless claims, pending home sales.
• Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI; Australia retail sales; Eurozone M3 money supply; US goods trade balance, personal income and spending and PCE inflation.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7004; (P) 0.7039; (R1) 0.7075; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rebound from 0.6828 short term bottom is on track to 55 day EMA (now at 0.7183). Break there will target 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6948 will resume larger fall from 0.8006 through 0.6828 low, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Economic Indicators Update