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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4849; (P) 1.4897; (R1) 1.4981; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Another rise is still mildly in favor 1.4687 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495. On the downside, below 1.4687 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4318 instead.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0204; (P) 1.0247; (R1) 1.0283; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is mildly on the downside for the moment. Corrective pattern from 1.0400 is extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline could be seen to 1.0086 support. On the upside, though, break of 1.0400 resistance will resume the rebound from 0.9970 to 1.0610 structural resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. In any case, sustained break of 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for May dropped significantly from -15.7 to -26.5, well below expectation of -15.7. That's the second month of decline, as well as a new historic low.

Looking at some details for April, economic expectations plunged from -8.9 to -16.4. Income expectations dropped from -22.1 to -31.3. Propensity to buy dropped from -2.1 to -10.6.

"The war in Ukraine and rates of high inflation have dealt a severe blow to consumer sentiment. This means that hopes of a recovery from the easing of pandemic-related restrictions have finally been dashed," explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert.

Full release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0602; (P) 1.0671 (R1) 1.0705; More...

EUR/USD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0069. On the upside, above 1.0756 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0935 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1185 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2507; (P) 1.2639; (R1) 1.2708; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside as down trend continues. Next target is 161.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2258. On the upside, above 1.2771 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, ahead 1.4376 long term resistance (2018 high). Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3158 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9584; (P) 0.9606; (R1) 0.9647; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside as rally resumed after brief consolidation. Current rise should target 0.9864 projection level next. On the downside, below 0.9545 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.9372 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9864. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 126.76; (P) 127.49; (R1) 127.96; More...

USD/JPY is still extending the consolidation from 129.39 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen but downside should be contained above 125.09 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 129.39 will target 130.04 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2731; (P) 1.2780; (R1) 1.2874; More...

USD/CAD's rally from 1.2401 is still in progress and intraday bias stay s on the upside for 1.2899 resistance. Break there will target 1.3022 fibonacci level next. On the downside, however, break of 1.2683 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7086; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7196; More...

A temporary low is formed at 0.7116 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish with 0.7342 support turned resistance intact. Current development argues that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Below 0.7116 will target a retest on 0.6966 low first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Yen and Dollar are both staying in the driving seat as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate the markets. Sterling remains the worst performing one, followed by Euro, with selling focus mainly on them. Australian Dollar recovers mildly as stronger than expected CPI data prompted some speculations that RBA could hike next week. But it's not too far away from Euro and Sterling in terms of weakness.

Technically, Gold is currently still struggling around 1900 handle but looks rather vulnerable. The fall from 1988.23 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2070.06. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1920.97 minor resistance holds. Break of 1889.79 will target 100% projection of 2070.06 to 1889.79 from 1998.23 at 1817.98. The move could be accompanied by another wave broad based buying in Dollar.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.38%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.09%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.38%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.09%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0013 at 0.246. Overnight, DOW dropped -2.38%. S&P 500 dropped -2.81%. NASDAQ dropped -3.95%. 10-year yield dropped -0.054 to 2.772.

NASDAQ hits new low as medium term correction resumes

NASDAQ lost -3.95%% overnight and closed at a new 2022 low. The development suggests that whole corrective fall from 16212.22 is resuming. More importantly, a key medium term fibonacci support at 38.2% retracement of 6631.41 to 16212.22 at 12552.35 is taken out. If this fibonacci support cannot be reclaimed soon, the decline ahead could be rather deep.

Tentatively, NASDAQ should target 100% projection of 16212.22 to 12587.88 from 14646.90 at 11022.56 next. There should be strong support around this level, and above 61.8% retracement of 6631.42 to 16212.22 at 10291.28 to contain downside to finish the correction.

Australia CPI accelerated to 2.1% qoq, 5.1% yoy, highest since 2000

Australia CPI rose 2.1% qoq in Q1, accelerated from Q3's 1.3% qoq, above expectation of 1.7% qoq. For the 12-month period, CPI accelerated to 5.1% yoy, up from 3.5% yoy, above expectation of 4.6% yoy. RBA trimmed mean CPI also accelerated from 2.6% yoy to 3.7% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy.

Head of Prices Statistics at the ABS, Michelle Marquardt, said "The CPI recorded its largest quarterly and annual rises since the introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) (in 2000)"

"Strong demand combined with material and labour supply disruptions throughout the year resulted in the highest annual inflation for new dwellings since the introduction of the GST. Annual price inflation for automotive fuel was the highest since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait."

Marquardt said: "Annual trimmed mean inflation was the highest since 2009. This reflected the broad-based nature of price rises, as the impacts of supply disruptions, rising shipping costs and other global and domestic inflationary factors flowed through the economy."

Looking ahead

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment and Swiss Credit Suisse economic expectations will be featured in European session. Later in the day, US will release goods trade balance and pending home sales.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7086; (P) 0.7157; (R1) 0.7196; More...

A temporary low is formed at 0.7116 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish with 0.7342 support turned resistance intact. Current development argues that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Below 0.7116 will target a retest on 0.6966 low first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Economic Indicators Update