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Gold is falling fast, having lost about 3% to $1940 from Monday’s peak. On Monday, the bulls are locally capitulating after an unsuccessful attempt to push the price above $2000.

It would be a mistake to attribute gold’s fall to an expensive dollar. Since the start of the year, the dollar index and gold have had a more than 80% correlation versus -0.34% in 2021, reflecting that investors see gold and the dollar as defensive assets amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Yesterday the dollar index slowed its rise towards the end of the day. It reversed to a decline on Wednesday morning, while gold has been actively declining since the beginning of the week, reinforcing their close correlation.

Gold’s recent retreat could be a sign of hope for a détente in the European conflict and a desire to lock in profits from the powerful movement of recent days. As it is difficult to find signs of de-escalation in the news, we are leaning towards the second option.

With EURUSD near 1.08, GBPUSD near 1.30 and USDJPY one step away from 130, the dollar is near historical extremes. The same can be seen in the Dollar Index, which since last week has been trading above 100, a psychologically crucial round level.

Since the beginning of February, gold has found support on the declines toward its 50-day moving average in the last rally. If a test of this level in the coming days also confirms the resilience of this support, we could see a new high soon.

On the long-term gold chart, the pullback from the highs in 2020 and the subsequent smooth recovery is a handle in a “cup-and-handle” pattern, whereby a cup has formed over eight years since 2012. This pattern will gain strength should gold consolidate above $2000 with a final target near $3000.

Bitcoin rose 1.4% on Tuesday, ending the day around $41,300 and remaining near that mark on Wednesday morning. Ethereum added 1.3% to $3080 in the last 24 hours, XRP corrected 0.9% to 0.766, and other top ten altcoins gained 0.7% (BNB) to 4.9% (Terra).

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, rose 1.3% overnight to $1.92 trillion. Bitcoin’s dominance index was little changed, remaining at 41.0%.

By Wednesday, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remained at 27 points (fear).

Bitcoin on Tuesday tested 8-day highs above $41,700 on the back of rising US stock indices, which strengthened for a second straight day.

According to Arcane Research, the correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq Composite Index has been highest since July 2020.

Terra (LUNA) gained 5.5 per cent as Terra USD (UST) moved up to third place in terms of capitalisation among stablecoins.

Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital and Virgin Galactic, said Solana (SOL) could capture market share in traditional financial services by challenging Visa and Mastercard. SOL is up 4.6%.

The creators of the largest anonymous cryptocurrency, Monero, have confirmed that a 15th network hardfork is set for July 16.

Jack Mallers, CEO of payment service Strike, said that bitcoin as a payment method is superior to all other systems. Nevertheless, it is better not to spend BTC but invest in it long-term.

The US Secret Service’s Office of Investigations (USSS) has disclosed that since 2015 the service has seized more than $102 million in digital assets from criminals.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) believes that nearly half of the world’s countries are not complying with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML) regulations. FATF has pledged to monitor member countries, including the US, China and the European Union.

Hello fellow traders. In this technical article we’re going to take a look at the Elliott Wave charts charts of BTCUSD published in members area of the website. Recently Bitcoin made recovery against the 69097.5 peak that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. It made clear 7 swings from the lows and complete at the extreme zone. In further text we’re going to explain the Elliott Wave pattern and forecast

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern

Double three is the common pattern in the market , also known as 7 swing structure. It’s a reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels.
The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree, or alternatively they can have W,X,Y labeling.

BTCUSD 4h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 03.28.2022

Bitcoin is giving us ((X)) black recovery that is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern, with (X)(X)(Y) blue inner labeling. The price is correcting cycle from the all-time high: 69097.5 . If we take a close look , we can count clear 7 swings up from the 32969.3 low. All 3 waves have corrective subdivisions. Bitcoin has already reached extreme zone from the lows at 47159.9-55104.7. At that zone buyers should be ideally taking profits and sellers can appear again. Consequently , we expect to see reaction from the that area. From there we can get either decline toward new lows or larger 3 waves pull back at least.

BTCUSD 4h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 04.19.2022

Sellers appeared right at the marked extreme zone : 47159.9-55104.7 and we got good reaction. ((X)) connector completed at 48241.3 high.The decline from that peak has a form of 5 waves- 1 red which increases chances of further extension down once 3 waves bounce in 2 red completes. Wave 2 recovery can see approximately 43460.5-44544.2 area before Bitcoin turns lower again in next leg down. Key pivot for presented short term view comes at 48241.3 high. If that pivot gets broken, it will invalidate the count.

USDCHF has been underperforming today, returning below the key 22-month high of 0.9535 that was reached on Tuesday. When looking at the bigger picture, the pair has been developing within an uptrend since June 2020.

The RSI’s momentum is too weak to provide a sustained move higher as it is showing some overbought signs. However, the MACD is stretching its positive move above its trigger and zero lines.

If price action remains above 0.9460 (immediate support), there is scope to test the latest high of 0.9535. Clearing this key level would see additional gains towards April’s 2020 inside swing low at 0.9585. Rising above it would see prices re-test the 0.9760 resistance, taken from the peak on May 2020.

If the 0.9460 support fails, then the focus would shift to the downside towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 0.8930 at 0.9535 at 0.9390, which if breached, would meet the 0.9380 support. From here, USDCHF would be on path towards the 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 0.9340 and 0.9315 respectively, ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci at 0.9300.

Overall, USDCHF has been positive but near-term weakness is expected to remain as long as the market is looking overstretched.

Economists say that the Bank of England won’t raise interest rates after May as the UK economy looks set to contract in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the economic slowdown and a renewed sense of caution at the Bank of England could weigh on the pound’s value, which is already under pressure against the dollar but resilient against the euro. The UK economy grew just 0.1% in February, and obstacles from rising inflation, global uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine, and lockdowns in China make the economic outlook particularly challenging.

A subsequent quarterly decline in Q3 would mean the UK is back in recession just two years after the Covid recession in 2022.

The rise came despite the latest UK GDP data showing a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown in February. The UK GDP was 0.1% compared to 0.8% in January and below forecasts of 0.3%. The pound was supported, however, by rising UK government bond yields, which is often an indicator of rate hikes. The UK 10-year bonds rose 0.09%, outperforming many of their peers, to hit a new six-year high.

Sterling expanded its upside potential on April 12 despite mixed employment data. The UK unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, the lowest level since December 2019. Importantly, the number of vacancies rose to a new record of 1,288,000 from January to March 2022, which should ensure a robust job market even if the rate of job growth continues to slow. However, economic inactivity continued to rise, and wage growth still lags far behind inflation.

Inflation data on April 13 pushed the pound even higher against the euro. The UK CPI was 7%, a huge jump from the previous 6.2% and above the consensus forecast of 6.7%. As a result, the UK government bond yield rose again, hitting a six-year high.

While the Bank of England has been more dovish in recent weeks, markets are betting that rising inflation will force the bank to continue tightening monetary policy.

Protection against a fall in the pound is the Bank of England, which economists expect will raise interest rates again on its May policy meeting. However, the economic downturn makes it look like the Bank will back down from further rate hikes. It will greatly disappoint markets, which expect interest rates to rise to 130 basis points during the rest of the year.

For those hoping for a stronger pound in the coming days and weeks, any resistance to expectations of a BOE rate hike could be disappointing. It would mean a mechanical depreciation of the British currency, all other things being equal.

On April 20, the EURGBP was 0.83000. The support is at 0.82500, the higher resistance level is 0.85130.

The GBP has recovered from the fall in the beginning of the month and now it’s continuing to strengthen.

The situation with GBPUSD is different, after plummeting in February, the GBP hasn’t increased higher than 1.33000.

What are perspectives?

While the outlook looks bleak, as shown above, there are some signs of resilience that could mean some positive surprises in the future cannot be ruled out. The British pound is likely to trade depending on where the data goes: a slowdown in the economy is inevitable, but if the economy avoids recession by recovering to growth in the third quarter, the currency could potentially end the year stronger. If the Bank of England justifies the increased expectations of the market regarding the interest rate hike, the pound sterling may maintain support.

UK data is sparse for most of the week, so domestic economic and political news could affect the pound's exchange rate. However, Friday will bring important data. UK retail sales are forecast to contract by 0.3% for the second month in a row, which could hurt the pound sterling.

In addition, instant PMIs for the UK and Eurozone have not been released, which could lead to a significant move if the results surprise the markets. Meanwhile, any news about the Russian-Ukrainian war is likely to also play a role in the GBP/EUR pair. Ukrainian security forces are preparing for new assaults in the Donbass.

USDJPY has recorded a 20-year high of 129.40 within the 129.00-129.57 resistance area, shaped by the highs from the first half of May 2002 and the latter being the inside swing low from mid-April 2002. Currently, the pair is exhibiting a pause in its near two-month rally from 114.40 but the climbing simple moving averages (SMAs) continue to sponsor the sturdy bullish trend.

Furthermore, the rising Ichimoku lines are endorsing persisting upside forces, while the short-term oscillators are reflecting the fresh snag in the uptrend of the pair. The MACD, far north of the zero mark, is holding firm above its red trigger line, reflecting no weakness in positive momentum. However, the dip in the RSI and the %K line in their respective overbought territories, is hinting that the ascent is struggling a tad, but they have yet to confirm that bullish drive is clearly fading.

For additional positive developments to unfold, the pair would need to overcome the immediate 129.00-129.57 resistance band that extends back to mid-April 2002, and simultaneously its newly plotted intraday high of 20 years. Reviving the uptrend, the bulls could then jump for the 130.71 barrier and the 132.41 high, both recorded in April of 2002.

Otherwise, if positive pressures remain frail, and the 129.00-129.57 deterrent drives the price down, hardened congested support barricades could arise at the 126.38-126.83 zone and at the 125.10-125.98 region. The former stretches back to inside swing lows over the March until May period of 2002, while the latter’s outer frontiers encapsulate multiple rally peaks over June 2002 until August 2015. The latter is also reinforced by the 125.88 level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 114.40-129.40 rally. In the event the price corrects below these critical support borders, the bears may then dive for the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibos of 123.67 and 121.90 before challenging the March low of 121.27.

Summarizing, USDJPY is sustaining a bullish bias above the soaring Ichimoku lines, the 125.10 barrier and the 121.27 trough. That said, for negative tendencies to gain a greater advantage, the price would need to sink beneath the 126.38-126.83 and the 125.10-125.98 support borders.

Eurozone goods exports rose 17.0% yoy to EUR 215.8B in February. Imports rose 38.8% yoy to EUR 223.4B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -7.6B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 25.6% yoy to EUR 202.5B.

In seasonally adjusted term, Eurozone exports rose 0.8% mom to EUR 223.6B. Imports rose 1.5% mom to EUR 233.1B. trade deficit widened from EUR -7.7B to EUR -9.4B, larger than expectation of EUR -6.5B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose from EUR 202.7B to EUR 205.8B.

Full release here.

Eurozone industrial production rose 0.7% mom in February, below expectation of 0.8% mom. Production of durable consumer goods rose by 2.7%, non-durable consumer goods by 1.9% and intermediate goods by 0.9%, while production of capital goods fell by -0.1% and energy by -1.1%.

EU industrial production rose 0.6% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases were registered in Italy (+4.0%), Croatia (+2.7%) and Ireland (+2.4%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovenia (-8.3%), Lithuania (-3.8%) and Malta (-2.7%).

Full release here.

NZDUSD switched to a recovery operation on Wednesday after halting its downleg near a three-week low of 0.6714 and around the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud.

Despite its latest deceleration, the pair maintains a neutral structure in the medium-term picture. Yet, the negative reversal in the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which immediately pulled below the 200-day SMA, is feeding some trend skepticism.

Meanwhile in the short-term picture, the current bullish action is also not convincing yet. Even though the Stochastics seem to be creating a double bottom below their 20 oversold level, the lines have yet to confirm the bullish pattern. Moreover, the RSI has pivoted, though it is still well dipped in the bearish area, while the MACD has displayed no signs of progress.

Given the above questioning technical signals, the focus will be on the nearby 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7217 – 0.6528 downleg at 0.6790 and the 50-day SMA at 0.6817. Should the price cross that constraining zone, buying pressures are expected to intensify towards the 50% Fibonacci of 0.6872 and the 200-day SMA. Perhaps the broken supportive trendline coming from the low of 0.6528 may cement that wall as well. Further up, the rally could stage another acceleration towards the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.6998.

In the bearish scenario, where the price entirely ruins its 2022 uptrend below the cloud at 0.6724, and more importantly,  beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.6690, sellers could aggressively drive towards the 0.6600 mark. If the latter fails to add footing, all attention will turn to the 0.6528 bottom.

Summarizing, while NZDUSD is trying to minimize its weekly losses, short-term technical signals suggest a bullish attitude has not successfully developed yet. A step above 0.6790 could give the green light for more progress, whereas a plunge below 0.6724 would cause an outlook deterioration.

The dollar index eases from new two-year high in early Wednesday, with the action seen as technical correction on overbought studies, as the greenback remains well supported by safe-haven buying on rising uncertainty over Ukraine crisis and expectations for more aggressive Fed in coming months.

The larger dollar’s uptrend accelerated strongly in past two months and is on track for over 2% advance in April, the biggest monthly gain since November 2016.

Rising positive momentum and MA’s in bullish setup on daily chart, point to strong underlying uptrend, while overbought conditions suggest bulls are taking a breather before resuming.

Solid supports lay at 100.34/20 (broken Fibo 76.4% of 103.80/89.15 / rising 10DMA) and psychological 100 level, where dips are expected to find ground and keep bulls intact.

Caution on extension below 99.54/45 (Apr 14 trough / 20DMA) that would signal deeper correction.

Res: 101.01; 101.50; 102.00; 102.26
Sup: 100.54; 100.34; 100.00; 99.54