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Gold Analysis: Tests Resistance At 1,275.00
On Wednesday, gold's price was testing the resistance of the 55-hour SMA, which had caught up to the commodity price.
If the price passes above the 55-hour simple moving average, it should next test the 1,280.00 level, which should provide psychological resistance, and the 100-hour simple moving average.
On the other hand, the rate could be pushed down through the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,273.68. In that case scenario the rate would once more drop to the 1,270.00 level.
Meanwhile, take into account that the Federal Reserve announcement at 18:00 GMT might crash all technical USD charts.
USD/JPY Analysis: Declines After Sharp Surge
As it was expected, the USD/JPY had become overbought due to the jump that occurred on Tuesday. This resulted in a decline, which by the middle of London's Wednesday session had reached 110.40.
The rate was expected to look for support in the 55-hour simple moving average and the lower trend line of an ascending channel pattern near 110.30.
If the pair finds support in this level, it should test the previously broken resistance levels near 110.50. At that level the weekly R1 and a monthly pivot point were located at.
On the other hand, the rate might break the support of the two mentioned levels and decline down to the 100-hour SMA, which was located just above 110.00.
Meanwhile, note that at 18:00 GMT the FOMC Meeting Minutes will impact all USD pairs.
GBP/USD Analysis: Reaches New Low Level
After experiencing a sharp jump up and decline at the end of Tuesday's London trading session, the GBP/USD resumed its decline. By the middle of Wednesday's trading session the rate had reached below 1.2680.
In general, the rate was expected to continue the decline, as it had no technical support as low as 1.2610. At that level the weekly S1 of the simple pivot points was located at.
Meanwhile, note that all USD pairs will be impacted today by the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT.
EUR/USD Analysis: Is Expected To Decline
On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD traded below the 1.1170 level.
In general, the rate was expected to decline in the near term future. Namely, the currency exchange rate was set to meet with the resistance of the 100-hour simple moving average and a previously broken trend line, which began to provide resistance near 1.1165 during midnight.
These resistance levels should cause a decline, which would decline as low as 1.1120. Down to that level there are no other technical support levels.
On the other hand, high volatility and breaking of technical charts could be caused by the US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting Minutes publication at 18:00 GMT. Watch the preview analysis done by our community member Skyisthelimit.
EURJPY Eases Below 2-Week Low, Loses Ground In Short Term
EURJPY reversed lower after meeting a two-week high around 123.70 on Tuesday, flirting with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 126.80 to 122.07, near 123.20. The technical picture supports that the slightly bearish move is likely to continue in the short-term. The RSI is stretching to the downside and the stochastic oscillator is edging lower in the 4-hour chart.
Another move to the downside could find support at the short-term moving averages around 122.90. A violation of these lines could send the pair until the 122.50 support, taken from the latest lows ahead of the four-month trough of 122.07.
In case of positive pressures, the market could meet resistance at the 123.70 level while a successful close above this barrier could see a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci of 123.90.
In the medium-term, EURJPY has been in a downward movement over the last three month and bears should be waiting for a decline below the 4-month bottom for further selling interest.
The Dollar Index Has Updated Annual Highs
The US dollar is rising against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index (#DX) set new annual highs. The US Department of Commerce lifted some of the sanctions on Chinese telecom giant Huawei. This step became a relief for the markets and lowered investors' concerns about the further escalation of trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. The recovery of the US government bond yield supports the greenback.
At the moment, financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the FOMC minutes. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the Fed representatives. Earlier, the head of the Central Bank Jerome Powell said that the regulator would not rush to change interest rates. The official also mentioned that the Federal Reserve was considering a transition towards a target inflation range instead of the fixed goal that is currently at 2%.
The "black gold" prices have been decreasing amid the growth of oil reserves in the United States, according to API. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $62.45 per barrel.
Market Indicators
- Yesterday, major US stock indices closed in the positive zone: #SPY (+0.90%), #DIA (+0.82%), #QQQ (+1.04%).
- The 10-year US government bonds yield has become stable. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.41-2.42%.
The news feed on 2019.05.22:
- Consumer price index in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+3:00);
- Statistics on retail sales in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
- Publication of the FOMC meeting minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).
Theresa May’s Time May Be Over | UK CPI And FOMC Minutes
The sun is setting for Theresa May, her days as a prime minister are limited. Lawmakers have made it clear that she isn’t capable of executing the job at hand- delivering the Brexit deal. Thus, it is about time to leave the office. Speculators are betting that she will resign within days, this means more volatility for Sterling. She tried her latest trick yesterday. May offered closer ties with the customs union and also an option of another referendum on her deal. The news initially brought a lot of excitement for Sterling and we experienced a huge surge in the price, but it started to fade away when traders realized that what she offered was nothing new. The Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn made it clear that her deal isn’t welcome and there is nothing new except the repackaging.
In terms of economic data, traders are keeping an eye on the upcoming U.K. inflation data due to 09:30. London time. The forecast is for 2.2%, which is above the Bank of England's target of 2%. The surge in the headline number is due to the increase in the energy cost because it isn't the wage growth which is driving inflation. As long as the wage growth isn't driving the inflation, this leaves the Bank of England out of trouble. Our forecast for CPI reading is also 2.2 percent while the risk to this projection remains to the upside.
As for the global equity markets, we had pretty much flat session over in Asia and US futures are trading lower. The focus is on the trade war, and leaders of both countries, US and China, are taking this as a chess game. They are being oblivious of the consequences of their actions on the global growth. Their Disney world tells them that the other party is suffering more when the reality is that in a trade war, no one really wins.
The Chinese officials have sent another positive signal to Trump administration yesterday that the country is ready to negotiate, but the US needs to drop its bullying behavior.
In the currency markets, it is all about the strength of the mighty dollar. It has picked up steam since March and there are no signs of it slowing down. This is despite the fact that the Fed has adopted a dovish tone with respect to their monetary policy. Even yesterday, James Bullard, St Louis Fed also confirmed that inflation growth isn’t impressive at all and if it continues like this, he has no problem in supporting a rate cut. But looking at the dollar index, it doesn't seem like that traders are paying any attention to this. The almighty dollar is taking a stab at the resistance of 98.32 and currently trading at 98.08.
Later today we have the FOMC meeting minutes and traders will be looking at this very closely in order to gauge the Fed's stance towards their monetary policy. What will be quite important in these minutes will be the Fed's reaction towards the ongoing trade war and the slow down in the global growth. We are not expecting anything new from the Fed, it is highly likely that the Fed ignores the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
GBP/USD Eyes 2019 Low, More Bad News For UK Holiday Makers As EUR/GBP Stretches Above 0.88
Backlash -that would be the word used to sum up the investor reaction from the latest attempt by UK Prime Minister Theresa May to push forward her Brexit deal.
In a measure that can be conceived as an act of desperation to get her Brexit deal over the line, Theresa May will attempt for a fourth time to get her Withdrawal Agreement Bill through Parliament and has even offered MPs the option to hold a vote on another referendum – but only if they agree to her Brexit deal.
This measure of desperation from Theresa May shows how heavily the UK Prime Minister’s back is against the wall when it comes to her persistent efforts to deliver Brexit, but it is an extremely tough ask for MPs to change their tune and agree to something that they have already rejected three times. And throwing the dice with the option of allowing MPs the chance to vote on holding a second referendum is not considered even in the unlikely event they agree to her agreement as a realistic scenario that even the most optimistic Pound investors can buy into.
As such, the Pound is stumbling towards near-2019 lows for a currency that has already lost 2.81% in May, stands as the worst performer in the G10 and also on track to record 13-days of consecutive declines against the Euro.
Calls for Theresa May to step down and resign are as relentless as ever, and her position as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom does appear to be a sitting duck scenario where whatever she puts forward to push Brexit through will be knocked back.
The Pound regularly shows the trend that when it shoots in one direction it’s difficult to stop that wave, and the tidal wave that is making its way through headlines that Theresa May will once again face calls to resign means that the Pound is at least heading to the 1.25 level.
Such sudden drops in valuation for the Pound is concerning news for UK holiday makers as the summer season is fast approaching, but we see the chances that the sprint higher in the EURGBP faces the risk of being stopped in its tracks by the upcoming EU elections. A lot of attention in international markets has been on both Brexit and US-China trade tensions over the past couple of weeks, but we cannot discount the likelihood that the upcoming EU elections will show further strides forward made for far-right political parties in Europe. If the election results do put question marks over the stability of the European Union in the headlights once again, this should put the brakes on the record rally in the EURGBP.
GBP/JPY Multiple MTF Confluence Captured The Trend Perfectly
After yesterday’s fakeout move caused by algo traders trading on the Brexit news, the GBP/JPY went exactly as planned.
UK PM May May proposed a free vote on a 2nd referendum and sparked a massive backlash from Pro-Brexit ministers. GBP basket was instantly bought where the “Dragon” (GBP/JPY) has spiked app 120 pips. However that was a fake move caused by algo trading and soon afterwards the trend returned back to normal. Arrows and diamonds represent perfect short trade signals generated by the CAMMACD.MTF.
140.20-40 is the POC zone. A rejection from the zone targets 139.50 zone. A break of 139.50 should target 139.05. Only below 139.05 we will see a continuation towards 138.28 in upcoming days. Break of 141.13 to the upside could form a new trend but in that case 140.95 should hold any dips. However, the trend is now bearish so selling the rallies is still a valid option.
EUR/GBP Outlook: Fresh Bullish Signal On Break Above 200SMA
The cross broke through key barriers at 0.8790/92 (200SMA / 50% retracement of Jan/Mar 0.9113/0.8471 fall) on Tuesday, holding in green for almost two weeks and extending steep rally from 0.8489 (6 May low).
Close above 200SMA would add to strong bullish structure for attack at 0.8835/40 (100WMA / 14 Feb high) and possible extension towards next pivotal barrier at 0.8868 (Fibo 61.8%).
Negative outlook for pound on rising Brexit uncertainty supports the advance, as daily techs maintain strong bullish momentum and daily MA’s formed a number of bull crosses.
Overbought stochastic and RSI suggest a pause in uninterrupted 13-day rally, but so far lacking firmer signals.
Corrective dips are expected to offer better opportunities, with broken 200SMA marking initial support, followed by rising 5SMA (0.8772) and deeper pullback to be contained by rising 10SMA / broken Fibo 38.2% (0.8717) to keep bulls in play.
Res: 0.8809, 0.8835, 0.8868, 0.8890
Sup: 0.8790, 0.8771, 0.8717, 0.8683







