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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1147; (P) 1.1165; (R1) 1.1176; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Consolidation pattern from 1.1111 has completed at 1.1263, after hitting 55 day EMA. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.1111 first. Break will resume larger down trend for 100% projection of 1.1448 to 1.1183 from 1.1324 at 1.1059. Though, on the upside, above 1.1224 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend the consolidation from 1.1111 first.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) is still in progress. Such decline would target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Crude Oil Further Advance

Pivot (invalidation): 62.90

Our preference Long positions above 62.90 with targets at 64.05 & 64.70 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 62.90 look for further downside with 62.55 & 62.25 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Silver Spot Under Pressure

Pivot (invalidation): 14.5100

Our preference Short positions below 14.5100 with targets at 14.3200 & 14.2600 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 14.5100 look for further upside with 14.5700 & 14.6800 as targets.

Comment As Long as 14.5100 is resistance, likely decline to 14.3200.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2685; (P) 1.2744; (R1) 1.2776; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 1.3381 is in progress for retesting 1.2391 low. Larger decline from 1.4376 might be resuming. Break of 1.2391 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. On the upside, above 1.2795 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral for consolidation first before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) is not completed, and is possibly ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Gold Spot 1266.25 Expected

Pivot (invalidation): 1284.00

Our preference Short positions below 1284.00 with targets at 1272.50 & 1266.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1284.00 look for further upside with 1288.25 & 1291.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0089; (P) 1.0106; (R1) 1.0126; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Further decline remains mildly in favor as long as 1.0126 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.0050 will resume the fall from 1.0237 to retest 0.9879 key support. However, firm break of 1.0126 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0237 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9879 support holds, medium term up trend form 0.9186 is still in progress. Break of 1.0237 will target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. However, decisive break of 0.9879 will be a strong sign of medium term reversal. Focus will be turned back to 0.9716 support for confirmation.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.65; (P) 109.92; (R1) 110.34; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 109.02 temporary low. Stronger recovery cannot ruled out. But upside should be limited by 55 day EMA (now at 110.85) to bring another fall. On the downside, break of 109.02 will extend the decline from 112.40 to retest 104.69 low.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is staying inside falling channel from 118.65. Currently development suggests that rebound from 104.69 is only a corrective move. And fall from 118.65 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 104.69 will extend the down trend towards 98.97 support (2016 low). For now, we'd expect strong support above there to bring rebound.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3429; (P) 1.3472; (R1) 1.3509; More...

Much volatility is seen in USD/CAD but it's, after all, bounded in consolidation from 1.3521. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading first. In case of deeper retreat, downside should be contained above 1.3274 support to bring rally resumption. On the upside, firm break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. However, decisive break of 1.3274 support will indicate completion of rise from 1.3068 and turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3296). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.

S&P 500 Under Pressure

Pivot (invalidation): 2881.00

Our preference Short positions below 2881.00 with targets at 2851.00 & 2831.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 2881.00 look for further upside with 2902.50 & 2932.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum.

DAX Aim @ 12360.00

Pivot (invalidation): 12145.00

Our preference Long positions above 12145.00 with targets at 12305.00 & 12360.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 12145.00 look for further downside with 12085.00 & 12030.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.