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BCC Marshall: Messy and disorderly Brexit a flagrant dereliction of duty of MPs
British Chambers of Commerce Director General Adam Marshall criticized that the uncertainty of the "Brexit black hole" is generating "a growing list of business casualties and a litany of rising costs". He also urged MPs to do all to avoid no-deal Brexit. He said "messy and disorderly exit would not just be deeply irresponsible – it would be a flagrant dereliction of duty."
Prime Minister Theresa May is still meeting Conservative colleagues and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to seek support on her Brexit deal. House of Commons leader announced there will be another Brexit debate tomorrow, and there might be another meaningful vote.
Hard-line Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg extended his support to May and urged DUP to "come over to the deal". But DUP insisted they won't even abstain but just reject it. Another Brexiteer Boris Johnson told Evening Standard newspaper that "May's deal si dead".
European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas warned again that "If the Withdrawal Agreement is not ratified by the end of this week, Article 50 will be extended to April 12 and it is now for the UK government to inform about how it sees the next steps." On the indicative votes, Schinas added, "we counted eight 'noes' last night, now we need a 'yes' on the way forward."
USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Steady, U.S. GDP Next
The Canadian dollar is up slightly on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3435, up 0.25%. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the U.S., Final GDP for the fourth quarter is expected in at 2.4%. Unemployment claims is projected to tick lower to 221 thousand. On Friday, Canada releases GDP, while the U.S. will publish consumer spending and inflation data.
Canadian bonds showed an inverted yield curve on Monday, after U.S. treasury bonds showed the same pattern on Friday. This has spooked investors, as the inverted yield curve is a sign of a recession. The Bank of Canada is already in a dovish stance and could follow the Fed and freeze rates for the rest of the year. If the economic slowdown continues, policymakers may have to consider a rate cut in order to stimulate the economy.
Global trade tensions have weighed on inflation levels in the developed economies, and the U.S. is no exception. However, with the Fed saying it will put a hold on rates until 2020, could that change? At the Fed policy meeting, policymakers lowered their inflation forecast for 2020, citing weakness in the Chinese and European economies. However, the chief economist of Credit Suisse, James Sweeney, has taken a different tack, saying that U.S. inflation could climb as high as 2.3% next year, in response to the lack of rate hikes. Sweeney said that although inflation remains below the Fed target of 2.0%, there are signs in the services sector of inflation picking up.
GBPUSD Pressured Below 1.3150
The British pound is trading towards the lower-end of its weekly trading range against the US dollar as the UK Parliament remains deadlocked over Brexit. If the GBPUSD pair continues to decline, the 1.3100 level offers the strongest form of near-term support. The four-hour time frame is showing a neutral triangle pattern, with trendline support found at the 1.3035 level.
The GBPUSD pair is intraday bearish while trading below the 1.3150 level, key technical support is found at the 1.3100 and 1.3035 levels
If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3150 level, buyers may test towards the 1.3200 and 1.3270 resistance levels.
EURUSD Still Under Pressure
The euro has remained under downside against the US dollar during the European trading session following weaker than expected EU inflation data releases. The EURUSD pair is moving closer to the neckline of a bearish head shoulders pattern, which is located at the 1.1216 support level. Technical indicators on the daily time frame are bearish and continue to signal further losses.
The EURUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 1.1250 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1216 and 1.1170 levels.
If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1290 level, buyers may test back towards the 1.1315 and 1.1330 resistance levels.
EUR/USD – Euro Is Steady, Investors Eye U.S GDP, German Inflation
EUR/USD has steadied on Thursday trade, after a brief mid-week slide. The pair is trading at 1.1249, up 0.05% on the day. On the release front, the remainder of the week is busy. On Thursday, German releases Preliminary CPI. The U.S. publishes Final GDP and unemployment claims. On Friday, Germany releases retail sales, and the U.S. posts consumer spending and inflation data.
Germany and the eurozone are mired in an economic slowdown, which began in the second half of 2018 and shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The global trade war has dampened the demand for German and eurozone exports, and the manufacturing sectors have aslo been hurt. On Wednesday, ECB President Mario Draghi sounded pessimistic in his remarks about the economy. Draghi acknowledged that the economic slowdown which started in the second half of 2018 had extended into 2019. Draghi blamed uncertainty in the global economy, adding that “risks to the outlook remained tilted to the downside”. With weak conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the ECB is expected to remain dovish in its stance and keep a freeze on interest rates until 2020.
Global trade tensions have weighed on inflation levels in the developed economies, and the U.S. is no exception. However, with the Fed saying it will put a hold on rates until 2020, could that change? At the Fed policy meeting, policymakers lowered their inflation forecast for 2020, citing weakness in the Chinese and European economies. However, the chief economist of Credit Suisse, James Sweeney, has taken a different tack, saying that U.S. inflation could climb as high as 2.3% next year, in response to the lack of rate hikes. Sweeney said that although inflation remains below the Fed target of 2.0%, there are signs in the services sector of inflation picking up.
AUD/JPY 4H Chart: Decline Continues
The AUD/JPY currency pair has been dominated by bearish momentum since the beginning of December. The Australian Dollar lost about 1.83% in value against the Japanese Yen during last week's trading session.
Everything being equal, it is likely that the currency exchange rate will continue its downside movement within this session.The potential targets for the pair will be near a swing low of 77.50.
Furthermore, technical indicators demonstrate that the AUD/JPY currency pair could end this week's trading session with a decline.
GBP/JPY 4H Chart: Sell Signals Today
The British Pound has been depreciating against the Japanese Yen in a medium-term ascending channel pattern since March 14. During this period, the exchange rate managed to reach its lower boundary of the channel pattern at 144.00.
Daily technical indicators suggest that bears are likely to dominate the currency exchange rate within this session. The possible downside target for bearish traders will be near the weekly S1 at 143.47.
However, taking into considerations the political event that is happening in the UK, technical analysis forecasts might not prevail.
WTI OIL Outlook: WTI Price Eases Further But Still Holds Within Consolidation Range
WTI oil price remains in red on Thursday and extends weakness into a second day after being hit EIA surprise rise in US crude inventories (EIA report showed2.8 mln bls build vs 1.1 mln bls draw f/c).
The price remains holds two-week range ($58.16/$60.37) in extended consolidation after repeated failure to sustain break above psychological $60 barrier. Oil price remains supported by output reduction by world's biggest oil exporters and US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
Current action could be seen as consolidation before broader bulls resume, however, risk of deeper pullback cannot be ruled out.
Flat momentum and stochastic so far support scenario of prolonged consolidation, but violation of range floor, reinforced by rising 20SMA would signal a double-top and signal stronger correction.
Res: 59.40, 60.00, 60.37, 61.00
Sup: 58.80, 58.16, 58.04, 57.55
USD/JPY Could Depreciate To 109.80
During Wednesday's trading session, the currency exchange rate passed through the support levels of the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving average to end the trading session at 110.20. On Thursday morning, the rate was supported by the 100-hour simple moving average to trade at the 110.29 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the 55-hour simple moving average will retrace the rate to push it to pass through the support level of the weekly S1 at the 109.22 mark.
On the other hand, today's US Final GDP data release at 12:30 GMT could support the US Dollar to appreciate against the Japanese Yen to the 110.60 level.
XAU/USD Will Depreciate To 1,305.00
During Wednesday's trading session, the yellow was resisted by the 200-hour simple moving average to pass through the previously drawn pattern line to end the day at 1,305.00. On Thursday morning, the rate was located at the 1,307.74 mark.
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, gold will depreciate to the 1305.00 mark.
On the other hand, today's US Final GDP data release at 12:30 GMT might push the US Dollar to appreciate against the yellow metal to break the resistance of the 200-hour simple moving average to end the day at the 1,310.00 level.







