Sample Category Title

USD/TRY The Downside Prevails

Pivot (invalidation): 5.3740

Our preference Short positions below 5.3740 with targets at 5.3050 & 5.2670 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 5.3740 look for further upside with 5.4290 & 5.4780 as targets.

Comment A break below 5.3050 would trigger a drop towards 5.2670.

AUD/USD Further Advance

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7090

Our preference Long positions above 0.7090 with targets at 0.7160 & 0.7200 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.7090 look for further downside with 0.7055 & 0.7030 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

USD/CAD The Downside Prevails

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3425

Our preference Short positions below 1.3425 with targets at 1.3320 & 1.3265 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3425 look for further upside with 1.3465 & 1.3500 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.

Brexit parliamentary vote to be held on Jan 15

BBC reported that the Commons will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal on Tuesday January 15. And May will give her last efforts to give further assurances that the controversial Irish backstop solution is only temporary. MPs are invited to meet with May tomorrow.

Over 200 MPs had signed a letter to May urging her to rule out a no-deal Brexit. However, former foreign minister Boris Johnson wrote in Daily Telegraph arguing that no-deal Brexit, "otherwise known as coming out on World Trade terms" is "closest to what people actually voted for" in the 2016 EU referendum.

Separately, a YouGov poll published on Sunday should that if a referendum were held immediately, 46% of Britons would vote to remain in the EU, 39% would vote to leave. Removing those undecided or refused to answer, the split was 54-46 in favor of remaining.

USD/CHF Under Pressure

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9865

Our preference Short positions below 0.9865 with targets at 0.9820 & 0.9800 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9865 look for further upside with 0.9900 & 0.9920 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

USD/JPY Turning Down

Pivot (invalidation): 108.65

Our preference Short positions below 108.65 with targets at 107.90 & 107.45 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 108.65 look for further upside with 109.15 & 109.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI shows downside momentum

GBP/USD 1.2815 Expected

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2695

Our preference Long positions above 1.2695 with targets at 1.2765 & 1.2815 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.2695 look for further downside with 1.2645 & 1.2615 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

EUR/USD Aim @ 1.1495

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1390

Our preference Long positions above 1.1390 with targets at 1.1455 & 1.1495 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1390 look for further downside with 1.1360 & 1.1345 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

China foreign ministry: Trade friction is not a positive situation for US, China and the world

China and the US are holding vice ministerial trade negotiation in Beijing today. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that "From the beginning we have believed that China-U.S. trade friction is not a positive situation for either country or the world economy. China has the good faith, on the basis of mutual respect and equality, to resolve the bilateral trade frictions."

Lu added, "As for whether the Chinese economy is good or not, I have already explained this. China's development has ample tenacity and huge potential". And, "We have firm confidence in the strong long-term fundamentals of the Chinese economy."

Trump said on Sunday that "I think China wants to get it resolved. Their economy's not doing well... "I think that gives them a great incentive to negotiate."

Trade War, Brexit & The Volatility

In the forex market, there is no shortage of volatility after the recent events which brought historic moves in the Aussie and the Japanese yen. Of course, the major reason behind those moves was the ongoing trade war between the US and China. Traders are expecting this volatility to stay here for a while because, in the coming weeks events like; Brexit, the discussion around the trade war including the debt situation around the Italian banks are going to keep things interesting among the G-7 currencies. The below chat shows that the volatility for the G-7 pairs has spiked and there is no sign of it losing the momentum.

With Westminister returning today, Sterling could be the most interesting currency to keep a close eye because we have only three months left before the Brexit deadline expires and if there is no deal, the UK will be pushed out of the European Union without any deal. The country’s economy is clearly at risk because the bureaucratic barriers will suffocate the economy. The Prime minister has already made it clear on Sunday that the vote for her current deal will go ahead. She is hopeful to win support for the agreement. If she doesn’t secure the vote in the parliament, the probabilities of another referendum will be even higher.

Back in the equity markets, European markets and US futures are trading higher and investors are ready to build on the gains that we have seen on Friday. Asian markets have kicked off the week on positive momentum, thanks to the soothing comments by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve bank, Jerome Powell who said that the Fed is flexible in their approach and paying close attention to the markets.

As for the trade war, the officials from China-US will start the trade negotiations today and as always the hope is to secure a deal. The 90-day truce period is running out and both sides need to make sure that a deal is done within this period.