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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3194; (P) 1.3227; (R1) 1.3269; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral and another rise is still expected with 1.3141 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3318 will extend the rally from 1.2781 to 1.3385 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.3141, however, will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 1.3056 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1303; (P) 1.1362; (R1) 1.1397; More.....

With 1.1421 minor resistance intact, further decline is still expected in EUR/USD for 1.1215 support. Break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1421 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1499 resistance. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2782; (P) 1.2833; (R1) 1.2866; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.2927 will turn bias to the upside for 1.3071 resistance first. On the downside, break of 1.2764 will extend the fall from 1.3174 to 1.2661 key support level. Overall, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Even in case of strong rebound, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9946; (P) 0.9963; (R1) 0.9992; More...

USD/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9908 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.0006 minor support will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028. However, on the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will target 0.9848 key support level.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.

The British pound remains under pressure against the greenback in early week trade, as investors look past the positive outcome from the EU Summit. The GBPUSD continues to create higher price low, although the pair is only intraday bullish while trading above the 1.2882 level. Sterling traders now look to the return of US markets and a scheduled speech from Bank of Governor Mark Carney later today.

The GBPUSD pair is only intraday bullish while trading above the 1.2882 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.2920 and 1.3000 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.2800 level, key support is found at the 1.2755 and 1.2695 levels.

The euro is back under pressure against the US dollar after price broke below key trendline support, prompting heavy technical selling. A strong decline below the 1.1330 level is likely to prompt EURUSD sellers to test the important 1.1300 support level. Traders now look to key German IFO data and a scheduled speech from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

The EURUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.1330 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1300 and 1.1250 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1370 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1400 and 1.1425 levels.

On Sunday, the European leaders voted to accept the proposed Brexit deal. In the coming two weeks, Theresa May will work hard to convince the members of parliament to accept the deal. In a statement yesterday, she said that the MPs who will vote against the proposal will risk plunging the country into ‘more uncertainty and division’. She also said that the Brexit deal was one that worked for the EU and the UK. She will have an uphill task convincing her fellow conservative members to accept the deal. Already, more than 90 MPs have criticized the agreement. Today, she will meet her cabinet before embarking on a two-week campaign for the deal.

The yen dropped sharply against the USD after Japan released the manufacturing PMI numbers. The numbers showed that manufacturing activity in the country declined to 51.8. This was against October’s PMI of 52.9 and the consensus estimate of 51.9. The PMI was the lowest it has been since November 2016. The declining activity in the manufacturing sector is worrying because of the important role it plays in the Japanese economy.

The New Zealand dollar rose slightly against the USD in the Asian session even after disappointing retail sales from NZ. Retail numbers showed that the core retail sales in the third quarter rose by 0.3%. This was lower than the consensus estimate of 1.5% and the second quarter’s 1.3%. It was also the lowest reading since November 2016. The annualized quarterly retail sales number softened to 2.7%. This was the lowest it has been in almost ten years.

EUR/USD

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair dropped sharply to intraday low of 1.1325. This was the lowest level of the week. Today, it was little moved in the Asian session as traders wait for the Trump-Xi meeting and important economic data from the EU. It is now trading at 1.1340, which is slightly above Friday’s closing price. The double EMA indicators and the pair’s price action show a likelihood of continued weakness. The RSI has moved above the oversold level of 30 and is currently at 37. This happened in low volume trades, which means that the upward move could be a false breakout. Therefore, it will likely move lower and potentially reach the 1.1300 level.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD was little moved today as traders remained pessimistic about the likelihood of a vote in favor of the deal passed by the EU27. It is now trading at 1.2813, which is slightly above the Friday’s close of 1.2794. The volatility index remained at Friday’s lows as shown below. Its short and long-term EMAs show indecision in the pair. This week, the focus will remain on Theresa May and the conservative party as MPs announce how they will vote.

NZD/USD

In the past week, the NZD/USD pair has been making lower lows and lower highs. This has seen the price drop from 0.6883 to 0.6754. Today, it moved slightly higher, even after the weak retail sales numbers. It is now trading at 0.6785. The upward movement today happened in a low-volume market as shown below. This means that there is a likelihood that the pair will resume the downward trend today.

GBP/USD struggled to settle above 1.2880 and declined recently. USD/CAD is currently basing near the 1.3200 for the next upward move in the short term.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

• The British Pound is placed nicely above the 1.2770 and 1.2780 support levels.
• There is a short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near the 1.2825 level on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• USD/CAD is holding the 1.3180 and 1.3200 support levels, with positive signs.
• The pair is approaching the next break either above 1.3240 or below 1.3180.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a support base near 1.2770, the British Pound found started a nice upward move against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded above the 1.2850 and 1.2870 resistance levels.

However, the pair failed to surpass the 1.2930 resistance level and topped near the 1.2927 level on FXOpen. The pair dropped below 1.2900 and it seems like buyers failed to hold gains above the 1.2880 level.

There was a sharp downside move and the pair retested the 1.2800 support area. A new intraday low was formed at 1.2790 and the pair is currently consolidating losses. An initial resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2927 high to 1.2796 low.

More importantly, there is a short term breakout pattern forming with resistance near the 1.2825 level on the hourly chart. The trend line resistance is near the 50 hourly simple moving average at 1.2840.

Therefore, a break above the 1.2825 and 1.2840 levels could open the doors for a decent upward move. The next resistance is near 1.2865 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2927 high to 1.2796 low.

On the flip side, if there is a downside break below 1.2800, the pair could retest the key 1.2770 support area. Below 1.2770, the pair may decline sharply towards the 1.2720 support area in the near term.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The US Dollar followed a solid bullish path this past week and traded above the 1.3200 and 1.3250 resistance levels against the Canadian Dollar. The USD/CAD pair even gained pace above the 1.3300 level and formed a high near 1.3318.

Later, there was a sharp downside reaction and the pair declined below 1.3300 and 1.3250. There was even a close below the 1.3250 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as low as 1.3182 and later started an upside correction.

It moved above the 1.3220 level and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3317 high to 1.3182 low. However, the upward move was capped by the 1.3250 resistance and a connecting major bearish trend line with current resistance at 1.3240 on the hourly chart.

Moreover, there was no break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.3317 high to 1.3182 low. At the moment, the pair is trading near the 1.3200 level and it is likely approaching the next break either above 1.3240 or below 1.3180.

A break above 1.3240 could open the doors for more gains in USD/CAD above the 1.3250 and 1.3280 levels. On the downside, the 1.3180 support is very important, below which the pair may perhaps decline towards the 1.3120 support area.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.64% against the USD and closed at 1.1330 on Friday, amid sharp decline in the PMI data.

Data indicated that the Euro-zone's preliminary manufacturing PMI unexpectedly declined to a 30-month low level of 51.5 in November, compared to a level of 52.0 in the previous month. Market participants had expected for the PMI to record a flat reading. Moreover, the region's flash services PMI eased to its lowest level in 25-months of 53.1 in November, compared to market consensus for a drop to a level of 53.6. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 53.7.

Separately, in Germany, the seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) retreated 0.2% on quarterly basis in 3Q 2018, confirming the preliminary print and in line with market expectations. In the preceding quarter, the GDP had recorded a rise of 0.5%. Also, the nation's preliminary manufacturing PMI surprisingly slid to a level of 51.6 in November, compared to a reading of 52.2 in the preceding month. Market had envisaged for the PMI to remain unchanged. Additionally, the flash services PMI fell to a four-year low level of 53.3 in November, amid sluggish productions in factories and more than market anticipation for a drop to a level of 54.5. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 54.7.

The US dollar gained ground against basket of currencies, amid worries over global economic slowdown and as US-Sino trade war reduced the looming uncertainties.

In the US, data showed that the US preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to a level of 55.4 November, defying market expectations for an unchanged reading. In the previous month, the PMI had recorded a level of 55.7. Meanwhile, the nation's preliminary Markit services PMI surprisingly slid to a level of 54.4 in November, defying market anticipation for a rise to 55.0. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 54.8.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1340, with the EUR trading 0.09% higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1304, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1269. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1398, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1457.

Moving ahead, traders would await Germany's IFO business climate and expectations, both for November, set to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US Chicago Fed national activity index for October and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity for November, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.49% against the USD and closed at 1.2813 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2815, with the GBP trading a tad higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2780, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2745. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2866, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2917.

Trading trend in the Sterling today is expected to be determined by UK’s BBA mortgage approvals for October, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.