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Aussie Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.74% against the USD and closed at 0.7261.
LME Copper prices rose 0.3% or $20.0/MT to $6242.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.9% or $18.0/MT to $1945.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7251, with the AUD trading 0.14% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The OECD stated that Australia’s economic growth is likely to decline to 2.9% and 2.6% in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Moreover, the report indicated the possibility of interest rate hike in Australia, within two years, provided the country’s wage growth increases.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7226, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7200. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7277, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7302.
Looking forward, investors would closely monitor Australia’s CBA manufacturing and services PMIs, both for November, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.34% against the USD and closed at USD1226.70 per ounce, amid weakness in the greenback.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1227.60, with gold trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1221.83, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1216.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1232.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1236.67.
The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Reverses It Gains The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.22% against the USD and closed at USD14.48 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.47, with silver trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.31, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.16. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.58, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.69.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 2.36% against the USD and closed at USD54.72 per barrel, amid hopes that key oil producers will agree to cut production at a meeting early next month. Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated that US crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.9 million barrels to 447.0 million in the week ended 16 November.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 54.43, with oil trading 0.53% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 53.65, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 52.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 55.54, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 56.64.
Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.84; (P) 144.37; (R1) 144.73; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral as it continued to lose downside momentum. As long as 145.99 resistance holds, further decline is in favor. On the downside, break of 144.02 will target 142.76 support first. Sustained break there will bring retest of 139.39/47 key support zone. On the upside, above 145.99 support turned resistance could bring stronger rebound. But near tem outlook will be neutral at best as long as 149.70 key resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) would still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.19; (P) 128.64; (R1) 129.18; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 127.49 is extending. As long as 130.14 resistance holds, deeper decline is in favor in the cross. Below 127.49 will target 126.63 support first. Break there will resume whole fall from 133.12 and target 124.08/89 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 130.14 will resume the rebound from 126.63 towards 133.12 resistance.
In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8888; (P) 0.8906; (R1) 0.8928; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral first. As long as 0.8824 minor support holds, further rise is expected. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8939 will extend the rally from 0.8655 to 0.9098 resistance next. However, break of 0.8824 will now suggest completion of the rebound from 0.8655. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside instead.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Medium term fall from 0.9305 is possibly in progress and could extend through 0.8620. On the upside, break of 0.8939 resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish even in case of rebound.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5628; (P) 1.5709; (R1) 1.5755; More....
EUR/AUD retreats after hitting 1.5781 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, above 1.5781 will resume the rebound from 1.5519 to 38.2% retracement of 1.6357 to 1.5519 at 1.5839 and possibly above. But upside should be limited well below 1.5984 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 1.5643 minor support will bring retest of 1.5519 low.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is possibly completed at 1.6357, ahead of 1.6587 (2015 high). This is supported by bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper decline is now in favor to 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313). Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.4668. On the upside, break of 1.5984 support turned resistance is now needed to revive the prior medium term up trend. Otherwise, further decline will be in favor even in case of strong interim rebound.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1304; (P) 1.1326; (R1) 1.1343; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with a temporary low formed at 1.1303. For now, price actions from 1.1501 are seen as a corrective pattern. Downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 1.1173 to 1.1501 at 1.1298 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1433 resistance will argue that the pull back has completed. Further rise should be seen back to 1.1501 resistance first. Break of 1.1501 will revive the case of bullish trend reversal. However, sustained break of 1.1298 will turn focus back to 1.1173 low.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1261) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.73; (P) 112.96; (R1) 113.27; More..
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral with focus on 113.09 resistance. Sustained break of 113.09 will indicate that fall from 114.20 has completed. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone. On the downside, below 112.30 will resume the fall from 114.20 to 111.37 support. Such decline is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 114.54. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.














