Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 54.00

Our preference Long positions above 54.00 with targets at 55.10 & 55.85 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 54.00 look for further downside with 53.40 & 52.80 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.3800

Our preference Long positions above 14.3800 with targets at 14.5500 & 14.6200 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.3800 look for further downside with 14.3300 & 14.2600 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 1222.00

Our preference Long positions above 1222.00 with targets at 1230.00 & 1233.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1222.00 look for further downside with 1219.50 & 1216.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further advance.

XAUUSD (1227.26): Gold prices were seen to be gradually extending the gains after price action managed to clear the resistance area of 1223.50 rather strongly. The close above this level signals potential rally toward 1238.00 level. This marks a retest of the resistance area. Failure to maintain the gains could, however, keep gold subdued to the downside. The initial minor support at 1213.50 remains a key level of interest. A break down below this level could trigger further declines down to 1204.00 level of support.

GBPUSD (1.2786): The GBPUSD currency pair was consolidating near the support level of 1.2808. Price action is seen trading subdued at this level. However, the retest of the lower support level at 1.2683 is still pending. This could potentially keep the GBPUSD biased to the downside. If we see a rebound off 1.2808, then the GBPUSD is likely to be limited in its gains to the upside.

EURUSD (1.1398): The EURUSD currency pair was seen drifting sideways following the test of the resistance level at 1.1435 - 1.1460 level. Price action attempted to post a modest rebound forming a lower high. We expect another attempt to test the resistance area. Failure to break the resistance could keep the common currency range bound. However, this increases the risk of a downside retest back to the support area. The retest at 1.1315 - 1.1300 could mark a test of support and the breakout from the falling trend line.

Trading was rather subdued on Wednesday. On the economic front, the University of Michigan report showed that sentiment eased to 97.5 in November. This marked a three-month decline.

The durable goods orders report showed a 4.4% monthly decline which was worse than the 2.2% decline that was forecast. Core durable goods orders rose just 0.1% below estimates of a 0.4% increase.

In the Eurozone, the European Commission recommended taking disciplinary action against Italy for its budget plans. The news did not have much impact on the Euro currency.

The U.S. markets are closed today due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

Elsewhere, economic data is also sparse. The European Central Bank will be releasing the meeting minutes from the recently held monetary policy meeting.

No major surprises are expected from the minutes although officials might remain cautious on inflation and economic growth.

The NY trading session will see a BoC official speaking which will be followed later by the BoC financial system review.

Later in the evening, the Bank of England monetary policy committee member Saunders is expected to speak.

The euro is currently struggling to find an intraday directional bias against the US dollar, as the Italian budget issue and Brexit negotiations create uncertainty for traders and investors. The EURUSD pair is also suffering from low trading volumes, as the United States is observing Thanksgiving Holiday. Overall, a clear break from the 1.1355 to 1.1470 price range is currently needed before a short-term trend can once again be established.

The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1355 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1330 and 1.1300 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1470 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1500 and 1.1553 levels.

The US dollar is consolidating around the 113.00 area against the Japanese yen, after finding strong technical resistance from the 113.15 level. If buyers fail to create a new higher price high the USDJPY pair may come under selling pressure, ending the recent corrective move higher. Buyers need to maintain the price above the 112.79 level to maintain bullish pressure on the USDJPY pair.

The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 112.79 level, key technical resistance is found at the 113.15 and 113.40 levels.

If the USDJPY pair trades below the 112.79 level, sellers will likely test the 112.30 and 111.90 support levels.

The price of crude oil eased in the Asian session after the EIA released its weekly inventory data. The numbers showed that inventories rose by 4.85 million, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 2.5 million. It was lower than the previous week’s 10 million barrels. The number by EIA was different to that released by the American Petroleum Institute (API). The latter showed a drawdown of 1.545 million barrels.

The US dollar index moved slightly lower in the Asian session today. This followed disappointing economic numbers released yesterday. The continuing jobless claims over the past week increased to 1,668K, which was higher than the consensus estimate of 1,635K. The initial jobless claims rose to 224K. Durable goods orders in October declined by minus 4.4% while the core durable goods orders rose by 0.1%. This was lower than the predicted 0.4%. At the same time, the Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 97.5, which was lower than the expected 98.4.

The yen was little moved today after Japan released its CPI numbers. The national core CPI plateaued to 1.0% in October. The core CPI moved slightly higher to 0.2% while the national CPI rose by 1.4%.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair started moving in an upward trend on Tuesday this week when it reached a low of 112.30. This ended a major decline that started on Monday last week. The pair has found resistance along the 113.00 level, where it is currently consolidating. The current price is along the important 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. With no other major economic numbers expected today, the pair will likely continue to consolidate. If it moves up, it will likely test the 113.22 level, which is the 50% Fibonacci level. If it moves lower, it will test the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 112.7.

XTI/USD

After rising yesterday, the XTI/USD pair resumed a downward trend following inventory numbers released by the EIA. The pair is trading at 54.38, which is slightly lower than yesterday’s high of 55.82. On the four-hour chart below, the pair shows that it will likely continue moving lower. This is indicated by the double EMA and the RSI, which is currently at 38. Over the next week, the price could also consolidate as traders wait for the final statement by OPEC+ after their meeting in Vienna.

EUR/USD

During the past week, the EUR/USD pair has been moving in an upward trend. The trend started when it reached a low of 1.1215. On Tuesday, the pair moved significantly lower. Today, it is relatively unchanged from yesterday’s close. The current price of 1.1395 is also slightly lower than the important resistance level shown below. With no economic data expected from the US, and with most US traders staying out of the market today, the main drivers for the pair will be from Europe. Its RSI is currently at 52 while the double EMA have flattened. This means that the pair could move in either direction.