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The single European currency appreciated by about 94 base points against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. The currency pair dashed through the three SMAs during yesterday's session.

As for the near future, it is likely that the EUR/JPY currency exchange rate continues its upward movement and potential breach the upper boundary of a triangle-like formation pattern at 129.19 during the following trading session.

However, a resistance level formed by the monthly PP at 128.95 could hinder the exchange rate from the possible breakout today.

The Australian Dollar is trading in a triangle-like formation pattern against the US Dollar. The currency pair tested the upper boundary of the pattern at 0.7279 during Wednesday's session.

A resistance cluster formed by the 50– and 100-hour SMAs at 0.7249 was preventing the bulls from driving the exchange rate higher during the morning hours of Thursday's trading session.

If this cluster holds, a possible breakout through the lower boundary of the triangle pattern could be expected today.

A resistance level formed by the weekly R2 at 1.3318 pressured the US Dollar down against the Canadian Dollar on Wednesday. The currency pair depreciated by about 89 base pair during Wednesday's session.

Technical indicators on both the smaller and the larger time frames suggest that bullish sentiment could be introduced in the following hours.

If this situation occurs, the next target for the bullish traders will be at the upper boundary of an ascending channel at 1.3372 during the following trading session

The New Zealand Dollar appreciated by about 73 base points against the US Dollar on Wednesday.

Today's trading session begins with a bearish momentum, and by the middle of the day, a breakout through the lower boundary of an ascending trendline at 0.6802 had occurred.

Given that a breakout had occurred, the decline of the currency exchange rate is likely to continue within this session and potentially target a support level formed by the weekly S1 at 0.6765 today.

Oil prices down on high US inventories

The bear market in crude started early October 2018 and is not ending. The 6 December 2018 OPEC meeting in Vienna will be a key event: the group of 15 could decide to either cut production in the range of 1.4 million barrels per day or stick with the current production plan. We expect oil prices to trade lower, with both Brent crude and WTI heading along 61.70 and 52.80 respectively.

Valued at 1-year low, crude prices continue falling, as US Energy Information Administration data came in on Wednesday with higher inventories, in a continued rise since mid-September. Worries of oversupply and subdued US sanctions against Iran have been weighing on crude prices. Brent and WTI futures continued falling after yesterday’s rise, declining by 1.68% and 1.50% respectively. Asian oil future prices are also dropping, declining 0.45%.

Asian markets higher at US Thanksgiving

Asian stock markets held to their gains and are on the way to close the week in positive territory. Despite lower volumes on Asian market due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, Chinese equities remained robust, with both Chinese mainland and Hong Kong indexes closing in opposite directions while European equities are on track for closing the week in the red. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (-5% year-to-date) is now turning into neutral territory for the week, bouncing back from two consecutive drops amid the Renault-Nissan scandal and further risk aversion in the marketplace. China’s Hong Kong Hang Seng closed the day at +0.18% while Shenzhen CSI 300 dropped by -0.37%. South Korean KOSPI closed slightly lower at -0.32% and Australia’s ASX 200 continues to bounce back after reaching its lowest level in a year.

Sterling surges broadly on news that UK and EU have agreed on the draft political declaration on future relationship. It's also confirmed by European Council President Donald Tusk's tweet. The draft is now "subject to the endorsement of the Leaders" of EU. UK Prime Minister Theresa May will make a statement at 1430GMT.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1065550862137913344

Reuters reported that the text of the agreement include:

• EU and UK "agree to develop an ambitious, wide-ranging and balanced economic partnership."
• "This partnership will be comprehensive, encompassing a free trade area as well as wider sectoral cooperation ... will be underpinned by provisions ensuring a level playing field."
• The relationship would respect "the integrity of the Union's Single Market and the Customs Union as well as the United Kingdom's internal market, and recognize the development of an independent trade policy by the United Kingdom beyond this economic partnership."

The price needs to have a strong 4h close above 1.1415 (with full candle body above it) and only then the price might rally towards 1.1444 and 1.1474. A breakout above 1.1474 will target 1.1505. However, a constriction within the pennant might lead to a profit taking from bulls. If that happens price will drop below 1.1383 towards 1.1352. Only below 1.1350 the pair will be in neutral mode again re-testing 1.1300 zone.

Spot gold moved above $1225 pivot (Fibo 61.8% of $1243/$1196) on Thursday after being congested in past few sessions and unable to close above despite strong upticks $1228/30).

Fresh rally was boosted by weaker dollar, but sustained break above $1225 Fibo barrier and $1227 (trendline resistance) is required to signal continuation of bull-leg from $1196 (11 Nov low).

Important factor that could boost gold price is increase of dissonant tones regarding Fed rate hike in Dec.

Comments from Fed top officials in past few days, pointing at rising concerns about global growth slowdown, which could impact US economy and the comments that the central bank may pause the rate hikes, diminish recent strong hopes that saw Dec increase as done deal.

Shift in rate policy may disappoint market expectations and prompt investors out of dollar which could offer fresh support to the yellow metal, however, more signals from Fed before Dec policy meeting is still required.

Technical studies are bullishly aligned on daily chart but still require stronger bullish momentum to underpin recovery. Close above $1225/27 pivots would generate bullish signal for extension towards $1232 (Fibo 76.4%) and would expose lower platform at $1247 and 26 Oct spike high at $1243. Conversely, repeated failure to close above $1225 would signal that bulls are running out of steam and would keep the downside vulnerable.

Res: 1230, 1232, 1237, 1243
Sup: 1225, 1222, 1219, 1215

With the US celebrating the Thanksgiving bank holiday on Thursday, markets should be a lot quieter heading into the weekend even with much of the news flow coming from Europe.

The market bounce didn't last too long, with some late selling in the US session possibly worrying investors and weigh on sentiment today. It's never encouraging when investors lock in profits heading into the close before a bank holiday or weekend, particularly on the back of a period of weakness in the markets and when confidence is already shaky at best.

Naturally, the bank holiday in the US leaves us with barely any market events of note for the rest of the day, with eurozone consumer confidence and a speech from BoE policy maker Michael Saunders the only notable items. Even these are unlikely to have much, if any, impact on the markets which means focus will be entirely on the political landscape with Europe providing plenty of drama to compensate for the lack of activity.

Brussels has been at the centre of the drama again this week, with Theresa May visiting on Wednesday but failing to finalise the terms of the future relationship ahead of the EU summit on Sunday. Reports this morning though claim these details have been cleared up and a draft text on future ties has been agreed which has pushed sterling up close to 1% against the dollar.

Unfortunately for May, this is the easy bit, now she must sell the exit agreement to her own parliament. Given the level of criticism her deal has received from across the board – be it leavers, remainers, Conservatives, their DUP partners, Labour, the SNP – this is no easy task, with the only thing going for it being that it is better than the only other currently viable alternative, no deal.

Italy remains a cause for concern despite its markets doing ok yesterday in the aftermath of the European Commission rejecting its budget and pursuing an excessive deficit procedure which could lead to sanctions. There may have been a "buy the rumour, sell the fact" element to yesterday's trade given how expected the outcome was, but today they are coming under some pressure again as the government continues to show defiance in the face of sanctions and market pressure.

Oil is trading more than 1% lower again today, failing to build on yesterday's bounce on the back of another inventory build being reported by EIA. With oil now trading around 30% below its highs, momentum does appear to be easing for now which may provide some support for WTI and Brent. The pair may find some support now around $50 and $60, respectively, with the OPEC+ meeting only a couple of weeks away which could have significant near-term implications for the price.

NZDUSD has come under renewed selling pressure today, falling back below the downward sloping simple moving averages (SMAs). Despite the latest pullback though, the index has not posted a session below 0.6780, which makes one hesitant to trust further declines for now. However, looking at momentum oscillators, they suggest further losses in the near term. The RSI slipped into negative zone, while the MACD remains below its trigger line.

In case of further declines in the pair, immediate support is coming from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward movement from 0.6423 to 0.6882, around the 0.6780 support. If sellers manage to push below that hurdle, that would mark a drop towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.6705, increasing the probability for bearish extensions.

On the upside, if the bulls retake control, price advances above the 20- and 40-SMAs may stall initially near the resistance area between 0.6870 – 0.6882. A potential upside violation of this region is raising chances for more advances until the 0.6920 barrier, reached on June 25.

Overall, the very short-term outlook appears bearish, however, over the last one-and-a-half-month, it has been shifting from bearish to a more bullish one.