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EURUSD - With the pair closing lower the past week, more weakness should follow. However, we may see a recovery higher following its Friday recovery (see daily chart). Resistance comes in at 1.1850 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1900 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1950 level where a break will expose the 1.2000 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1750 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1700 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1650 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.1600. All in all, EURUSD continues to face further corrective weakness threats but with caution

Climacteric Catalonia

In addition to consternation in Catalonia, the start of Q4 brings a deluge of central bank speakers along with the main sentiment and inflation prints. Forex markets will continue to be sensitive to headline risk so we should expect conditions to remain whippy.

But traders will continue to be vigilant as they search the news tickers for headline clues as to who the next Fed Chair will be, and how the tax reform process is going.

President Trump advised that he expects to decide on the next Fed Chair in the next two to three weeks. Newswires were abuzz that former Governor Kevin Warsh was Trump’s frontrunner.

Rabid price action closed the door to a significant Q 3, a quarter greately influenced by political and geopolitical concerns topped off by shifting central bank narratives.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ rocketed higher with the latter pulverising its record close staged on September 15, this despite US bond yields recording an outside month with interest rates climbing aggressively on the inflationary prospects from US tax reform. Unquestionably the US administrations Tax Plan has breathed some life into January’s Trumpflation trade.

In addition, Friday’s bond flows were influenced by the future course of US monetary policy after reports surfaced that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh will be steering the Fed ship come 2018. Warsh is viewed hawkish by the markets, critical of QE and an advocate for a faster pace of policy normalisation.But with Dr Yellen sounding ever so hawkish these days, regardless of who is at the Fed helm, a significant policy shift could be in store.

As for Monetary Policy, equity markets continue to take an entirely different view than Bond Markets as stock market euphoria rages on propelled by tax cuts and perhaps a misguided belief that history will repeat itself as equity markets have risen seven times in the last eight years between October and December. But given the changing dynamics at the Federal Reserve and with a shift to a faster rate of policy normalising all but certain, something will come out in the “Warsh.” sooner than later

While the controversial Catalan referendum in Spain dominated weekend headlines, the markets still believe the risk of Catalonia leaving Spain remains low, and the Euro has completely sidestepped this political risk in early APAC trading.

Japanese Yen

JPY is wedged between different triggers as the market ebbs and flows in the mid to high 112 The Japan elections this month present significant market risk, and trading JPY will remain extremely tricky. It’s more likely that interbank players will reduce risk with Abe approval rating declining so this may not be the easiest game in town.

Australian Dollar

The AUD/USD is unchanged from Friday’s closing level choosing to ignore the Chinese PMI reports released over the weekend which came in better than expected. But I would expect this China data to temper AUD selling at current levels.

The markets remain focused on the next Fed Chair and US Tax reform which should be the main triggers for the USD this week. I expect traders will keep eyes peeled and ears to the ground for shifting headline risk.

Asian FX

Asian FX is coming off its worst move of the year arguably driven by short covering on mostly oversold USD positioning with US Tax Reform and Fed Chair banter providing both the fiscal and monetary catalyst. Now with positioning risk much cleaner. Investors may take advantage of pockets of opportunity in the MYR, KRW and THB currencies as these exporting economies should continue to do well on the back of the global growth narrative despite higher US yields. However, the top yield appeal in the IDR and INR may wane until both US dollar Tax Reform driven appeal abates.

As a reminder, CNY is out for the whole week due to Golden Week, so we should expect diminished liquidity conditions during Asia Hours

EURO

The Euro remains in broad ranges but the markets bullish medium-term bias remains unfettered

EUR/USD dropped sharply to 1.1716 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Current development suggests that decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.22029 resistance holds. Below 1.1716 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we're expecting support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

In the long term picture, 1.0339 is now seen as an important bottom as the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) could have completed. It's still early to decide whether price action form 1.0339 is developing into a corrective or impulsive move. But in either case, further rally would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516

USD/JPY edged higher to 113.25 last week but failed to sustain above medium term channel resistance. Initial bias is neutral this week first. With 111.46 minor support intact, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

GBP/USD's correction from 1.3651 continued last week but overall outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2773 to 1.3651 at 1.3316 and bring rise resumption. Break of 1.3651 will extend the larger rally for 1.3835 support turned resistance next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the long term trend in GBP/USD has reversed. That is, a key bottom was formed back in 1.1946 on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Current rise from 1.1946 will target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466 next. In any case, medium term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.2773 support holds.

In the longer term picture, current development argues that whole down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is completed at 1.1946 already (2016 low). It's too early to tell if GBP/USD is starting a long term up trend. But in any case, further rise is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1946 at 1.5466 next. We'll monitor the structure of the current rally from 1.1946 to decide if it's an impulsive move.

USD/CHF edged higher to 0.9769 last week but failed to take out 0.9772 key near term resistance. Also, upside was limited below 55 week EMA (now at 0.9777). Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed after defending 0.9443 key support again. That would also complete a double bottom pattern (0.9437, 9420). In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone first. Nonetheless, with 0.9772 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. Below 0.9587 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) would be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.8124 extended lower last week and breached 0.7807 support. But it cannot sustain below this level yet. Initial bias stays neutral this week first, with focus on 0.7807. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7669) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7907 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is seen as corrective pattern. In case of further rally, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7807 is the first signal that such correction is focused. Break of 0.7328 will bring retest of 0.6826 low.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we're favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we'd anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.2061 extended higher last week. The development argues that the pair has successfully defended 1.2048 fibonacci level. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.2326 minor support holds, for 1.2777 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 next. However, break of 1.2326 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.2061 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CAD has defended 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4869 (2016 high) at 1.2048. And with 1.2048 intact, we'd favor the case that fall from 1.4689 is a correction. Break of 1.2777 will further affirm this bullish case. That is, larger up trend from 0.9406 is not completed. However, on the other hand, firm break of 1.2048 will indicate that fall from 1.4689 is at least a medium term down trend and should target 61.8% retracement at 1.1424 and below.

In the longer term picture, the long term outlook is turned a bit mixed. As noted above, 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048 is a key level to determine whether up trend from 0.9056 (2007) has already completed.

GBP/JPY stayed in consolidation from 152.82 short term top last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. In case of another fall downside should be contained above 146.57 support to bring another rally. Break of 152.82 will extend the larger rise from 122.36 to 61.8% projection of 122.36 to 148.42 from 139.29 at 155.39 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is in progress. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. For now, the bullish scenario is preferred as long as 139.29 support holds.

In the longer term picture, current decline argues that the down from fro 195.86 (2015 high) has already completed at 122.36. Focus is now on 55 month EMA (now at 155.14). Firm break there will suggest that rise form 122.36 is developing in to a long term move that target 195.86 again. And, price actions from 116.83 (2011 low) is indeed a sideway pattern that could last more than a decade.

EUR/JPY edged lower to 131.73 last week but recovered ahead of 131.69 resistance turned support. Initial bias stays neutral this week work. Near term outlook remains bullish as long as 131.69 holds. Sustained break of 134.20 fibonacci level will extend larger up trend to 141.04 resistance next. However, break of 131.69 will be an early sigh of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level instead.

In the bigger picture, current rise from 109.03 is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. On the downside, break of 127.55 support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.

In the long term picture, at this point, there is no clear indication that rise from 109.03 is resuming that from 94.11. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping below 149.76 to extend range trading. Nonetheless, firm break of 149.76 will indicates strong underlying buying. In such case, EUR/JPY will target 100% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 from 109.03 at 164.68.