AUD/USD edged lower last week but lost momentum just ahead of 0.6169 key support. Further decline remains in favor as long as 0.6273 resistance holds. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 138.2% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6074. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6273 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term consolidation to the down trend from 0.8006, and could have completed at 0.6941 already. Firm break of 0.6169 support will confirm down trend resumption for 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806 next. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6587) holds.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the pattern. Hence, even in case of deeper fall, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.
