Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5291; (P) 1.5350; (R1) 1.5418; More….
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays neutral for the moment with focus back on 1.5529 resistance. Break there will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, stronger rebound could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.5676) before staging another fall. On the downside, below 1.5271 will target 1.5153 key support. But we’ll be cautious on strong support from there to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.
