Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5500; (P) 1.5547; (R1) 1.5606; More….
EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.5271 resumed by breaking 1.5556 and reaches as high as 1.5648 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for further rally. At this point, we’re still viewing the rebound as a correction and expected upside to be limited below 1.5773 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 1.5487 will indicate completion of the rebound and bring retest of 1.5271 low. However, decisive break of 1.5773 will invalidate our view and bring retest of 1.6189 high instead.
In the bigger picture, rally from 1.3624 (2017 low) should have completed at 1.6189 already, ahead of 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). 1.6189 is seen as a medium term top. Deeper fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 first. Decisive break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.4604. In that case, we’ll look for bottoming again below 1.4604. On the upside, firm break of 1.5773 support turned resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.6189. Otherwise, further decline is expected in medium term, even in case of strong rebound.