EUR/AUD dropped to as low as 1.3722 last week before forming a temporary low and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week first. We’re holding on to the view that price actions from 1.6587 are corrective in nature. Thus, we’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Decisive break of 1.4025 support turned resistance will indicate near term reversal. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.4289 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We’d expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.
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