Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5835; (P) 1.5912; (R1) 1.5962; More….
EUR/AUD’s retreat from 1.6060 extends lower today but downside is contained well above 1.5721 support so far. Intraday remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. We’re favoring the case that decline from 1.6765 has completed at 1.5721 already, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. On the upside, break of 1.6060 should confirm this bullish view and target a test on 1.6765 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.5721 will extend the decline to 1.5346 support instead.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.
