EUR/AUD rose further to as high as 1.5994 last week but formed temporary top there and retreated. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations first. But we’d expect downside to be contained above 1.5806 support to bring another rally. We’d continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. On the upside, above 1.5994 will target 1.6122 to confirm this bullish view. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.6765 high.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom (2012 low) is still in progress for 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1.1602 to 1.6587 from 1.3624 at 1.8069. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.5346 remains intact.
