EUR/AUD dropped to 1.5423 last week, but stabilized there and recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation pattern from 1.5250 low might extend further. On the downside, break of 1.5423 will target 1.5355 support, and then 1.5250. On the upside, break of 1.5672 resistance will bring stronger rise. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6827 to 1.5250 at 1.5852 to bring larger down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.9799 are developing into a deep correction, to long term up trend from 1.1602 (2012 low). Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.6033 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.
In the longer term picture rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) could have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799. The development suggests that long term range trading is extending with another medium term down leg. Sustained trading below 55 month EMA (now at 1.5818) now further affirms this case could bring deeper decline to 1.1602/3624 support zone.